Looking Ahead - The 2020 Offseason Thread

[PawPawMaxwell]

I suppose that it could be a rock solid confidence that they can sign a full time LF at market rate. Or trade for a full time 3B.

This is my thinking exactly FWIW. THo I think a DH is more likely rather than the LFer. I get the impression the organization is sold on Riley. Two 3B of note IMO that get little mention here are Story and Devers.
Why? Arenado is untradeable IMO and owner is desperate to reduce payroll and needs pitching. Boston in same mess to certain degree. Need pitching badly.

 

[PawPawMaxwell]

Liberty is in as good a position as anyone to hold the line on payroll.

Their interest in the Braves is asset appreciation rather than streams of income. They might well view holding the line as helpful in appreciating that asset. Or at least not particularly harmful.

In any event, the Braves are now leaner than they've been in a long, long while.

Liberty in a much better position financially than family owners or individuals who sustained the $100M losses. Liberty losses amount to something like 15 cents a share.

 

[Russ2dollas]

The more I've thought about it, I'm not sure.

Was Duvall ever considered a starter by AA? I don't think so. So he doesn't need to go to clear LF. So are we saying we do not have 5-7 million for a bench bat? Probably yes.

 

[Super]

The more I've thought about it, I'm not sure.

Was Duvall ever considered a starter by AA? I don't think so. So he doesn't need to go to clear LF. So are we saying we do not have 5-7 million for a bench bat? Probably yes.

i think maybe he wants a FT, big-bat LF/DH and figures when/if he gets one, he can go cheaper on the bench bat.
Duvall also may sign for less than that, and AA is willing to gamble by letting him test the market.

 

[weso1]

Hate to pass up a chance to have a Dahlvall platoon in left.

 

[50PoundHead]

The more I've thought about it, I'm not sure.

Was Duvall ever considered a starter by AA? I don't think so. So he doesn't need to go to clear LF. So are we saying we do not have 5-7 million for a bench bat? Probably yes.

I think that is at the heart of the decision. He was golden in 2019 when Markakis went down and he was golden this year, but he's at the point in his career where we're likely to see inevitable decline. He falls into the category of players I describe as "needing to play every day to be good, but may not be good enough to play every day." Curious to see what happens with him. I can see him coming back at a lower salary depending on how the DH decision plays out and what is out there for LF options. Anthopoulos probably wants to see the dust settle throughout the non-tender period before committing to Duvall.

 

[Russ2dollas]

I think that is at the heart of the decision. He was golden in 2019 when Markakis went down and he was golden this year, but he's at the point in his career where we're likely to see inevitable decline. He falls into the category of players I describe as "needing to play every day to be good, but may not be good enough to play every day." Curious to see what happens with him. I can see him coming back at a lower salary depending on how the DH decision plays out and what is out there for LF options. Anthopoulos probably wants to see the dust settle throughout the non-tender period before committing to Duvall.

This makes a lot of sense. Duvall wasn't very good playing only part time. It's possible that despite the numbers, some guys can't just play their best every X days when a lefty shows up. Might be better to find someone who has excelled as a bench player.

Duvall has been a super guy by all accounts, but he might have communicated that he wants a shot to play everyday. You do not have to do what players say, but sometimes those small favors help in the long term with agents/agency or player reputation.

 

[clvclv]

I think that is at the heart of the decision. He was golden in 2019 when Markakis went down and he was golden this year, but he's at the point in his career where we're likely to see inevitable decline. He falls into the category of players I describe as "needing to play every day to be good, but may not be good enough to play every day." Curious to see what happens with him. I can see him coming back at a lower salary depending on how the DH decision plays out and what is out there for LF options. Anthopoulos probably wants to see the dust settle throughout the non-tender period before committing to Duvall.

Not sure why you wouldn't just take the money you were going to have to pay Duvall and give it to Dahl/Rosario/Schwarber/Mazara and potentially Shaw if you need to outbid other teams if you're in AA's shoes, then circle back to Duvall (if you need to) once you've secured the strong side of any platoon. Tougher to find the affordable LH option. Get the LH 3B and LF taken care of first, giving you the option of playing Riley at whichever position your DH doesn't play at times.

Would give you the most flexibility when choosing between (negotiating with) Ozuna or Bryant. If Ozuna's still interested in playing defense once in a while, you can tell him he can play LF against lefties with Riley at 3B and d'Arnaud at DH. The same situation would exist with Bryant - both he and Riley could rotate at 3B/LF against them while d'Arnaud stays off his feet but still hits.

 

[thewupk]

The more I've thought about it, I'm not sure.

Was Duvall ever considered a starter by AA? I don't think so. So he doesn't need to go to clear LF. So are we saying we do not have 5-7 million for a bench bat? Probably yes.

No he wasn't. He was brought in to be a platoon partner with Ender. And that is still his ideal role.

 

[Carp]

are we really pretending the Braves are going to be the high bid on Springer?

Come on now.

I would guess not since he is the premiere position player in this FA pool. But the QO has been known to scare teams off, so may be he's this years version of Ozuna for us and we sign to 1 year and 25 million. I'm not holding my breath.

 

[Carp]

Non-tender of Duvall suggests money is tight, but may still be a sign of intent to make a couple of signings.

Little surprised they'd guarantee Luke Jackson any money. Would cost about 400k to cut him in ST.

If money was tight, tendering Camargo and Luke Jackson seems like a waste.

 

[Carp]

Here's my counter to that though. If cutting Duvall wasn't about money, wouldn't it have made sense to just retain him as a bench bat, albeit an expensive one?

If you sign/trade for a legit 3b, then Riley could take over Duvall's role for dirt cheap.

 

[clvclv]

If you sign/trade for a legit 3b, then Riley could take over Duvall's role for dirt cheap.

If you're going to have to platoon at EITHER position, the choice to non-tender Duvall was a pretty simple one for this exact reason. Riley's .255/.325/.585 vs. LHPs for $600K over Duvall's .243/.318/.482 for $5+ million couldn't be a much bigger no-brainer even if Riley couldn't also play 3B, could it?

 

[Enscheff]

Here's my counter to that though. If cutting Duvall wasn't about money, wouldn't it have made sense to just retain him as a bench bat, albeit an expensive one?

While money may not be tight, it's not like the Braves are so rich they can have a $5M bench bat as the weak side of a platoon.

There are probably many layers that went into these decisions. Duvall could come back as a FA, and perhaps he was the only guy who wouldn't agree to a pre-arb deal because he thinks his HR totals will get him paid closer to $10M. Cutting a guy making $1M loose in ST costs less than cutting a guy making $5M. LF seems to be a place where the impact bat options are plentiful.

At the end of the day we are reading very deeply into something we know very little about. Maybe the Braves are broke. Maybe the plan was Duvall/Rosario platoon in LF, but Duvall wouldn't sign for $5M. So now maybe the plan is to let Duvall test his market, find out it isn't very good, then get him at $5M anyways.

But as we sit here as fans rosterbating, we are going to put an optimistic lense on everything and hope this means LF is going to be upgraded.

 

[Enscheff]

If you sign/trade for a legit 3b, then Riley could take over Duvall's role for dirt cheap.

This is also a great point, and Riley was surprisingly good in LF. Turner/Bryant at 3B plus a Riley/Rosario platoon in LF would be pretty cost effective.

 

[thewupk]

If you're going to have to platoon at EITHER position, the choice to non-tender Duvall was a pretty simple one for this exact reason. Riley's .255/.325/.585 vs. LHPs for $600K over Duvall's .243/.318/.482 for $5+ million couldn't be a much bigger no-brainer even if Riley couldn't also play 3B, could it?

Yeah those career numbers don't match with the current reality of what those two can do against LHP. Riley had an insane hot streak to start his career. Since then he hasn't been anything special against lefties. Duvall meanwhile has been an offensive juggernaut when facing LHP.

 

[thewupk]

If you sign/trade for a legit 3b, then Riley could take over Duvall's role for dirt cheap.

You get what you pay for. Duvall can slug against LHP with the best of them. Riley is likely to be an average bat out there.

 

[PawPawMaxwell]

Another thing that plays into the Duvall situation IMO is the money sitting in Enders pocket and to some degree it is possible Will Smith may turn into a mistake for a team structured like the Braves.

 

[Carp]

Yeah those career numbers don't match with the current reality of what those two can do against LHP. Riley had an insane hot streak to start his career. Since then he hasn't been anything special against lefties. Duvall meanwhile has been an offensive juggernaut when facing LHP.

You get what you pay for. Duvall can slug against LHP with the best of them. Riley is likely to be an average bat out there.

Riley has only had 120 PAs total in his career against LHP, so it's hard to know exactly where to peg him going forward, though his 2019 numbers absolutely weren't sustainable. But I'd say it's very likely he's an .800+ OPS type of hitter against lefties. Hopefully his 2021 is closer to his career line in the respect.

He may not be the monster Duvall was against LHP the last 2 years, but he also has positional flexibility that Duvall doesn't have. A decent trade off considering the money saved.

 

[thewupk]

Riley has only had 120 PAs total in his career against LHP, so it's hard to know exactly where to peg him going forward, though his 2019 numbers absolutely weren't sustainable. But I'd say it's very likely he's an .800+ OPS type of hitter against lefties. Hopefully his 2021 is closer to his career line in the respect.

He may not be the monster Duvall was against LHP the last 2 years, but he also has positional flexibility that Duvall doesn't have. A decent trade off considering the money saved.

Like I said you get what you pay for. We don't know who AA is targeting or the payroll that he is working with. We won't truly be able to judge these moves until the final product is ready.