Looking Ahead - The 2020 Offseason Thread

The DH decision is likely one of the dominos that is holding up the whole market. An extra ~6000 PAs spread out over 15 teams is a huge amount of value added to position players. That extra cash likely must come from what teams would allocate to pitchers. Any position player would be foolish to sign now, and any team committing cash to a pitcher now might end up looking foolish.

Additionally, teams would be wise to wait for more information about the success of the new vaccine distribution. A fully vaccinated public by summer would mean the difference between playing 162 games at nearly full attendance vs something significantly less lucrative.
 
50PoundHead said:
I scratched my head at the decision when it happened and given the glacial pace of the market, I may resort to scratching it again. Everyone can have their own theory about it, but I believe Anthopoulos jumped the gun. One can only spend a dollar once and dollars going to Smyly may well impinge our ability to fill out the line-up.
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The only thing that has kept me from questioning the Smyly decision - so far - is the thought that either a.) there's more payroll flexibility than we imagined and that the money's there to sign one of Cruz or Ozuna the minute there's an announcement that there will be a DH plus a little left over to bring someone in to play LF defensively, b.) the money's there to sign Brantley plus a little left over to bring in a potential DH platoon, c.) the money's there to re-sign Duvall and add Pederson/Rosario/Mazara to platoon with him in LF if there's no DH, or d.) he's got a deal for Bryant or Suarez that he's OK with making where they might even take Ender's money back so he can sign a DH if there's going to be one in 2021.

Maybe it's my Braves-colored glasses, but I just find it extremely hard to believe that AA seriously misread the market and has backed himself into a corner. He's been entirely too patient AND smart about holding onto the right prospects to suddenly hamstring himself at this point - especially before the powers that be have settled on what rosters are going to look like - this team is just too close to winning a Championship for him to do that given his patterns. He didn't push all-in in Toronto until he had a team that was good enough (on paper) to win it all when adding Tulowitzki and Price. He still has all the pieces to make a blockbuster deal or two if/when he wants to, while still having the right type of prospect/young player capital to get the teams with the pieces he wants to eat money in the event there's a payroll number he's not going to be authorized to surpass when push comes to shove. I think what he learned so well during his time in Los Angeles was how to continue adding pieces that would be in place so that when he does make that one big move it really IS the one that pushes the team over the top.

As hard as it is to admit, I really do think that he's simply waiting for the DH mess to be resolved one way or the other and that once it is he'll strike quickly once again. I just can't imagine a situation where he spent $11 million on a 6th SP/swing guy and followed that up by non-tendering Duvall without the payroll flexibility to put at least one more big bat in this lineup - regardless of who that big bat is when everything finally shakes out. It's awfully hard to imagine that he doesn't have the authority to push payroll to the $140-$150 million range and that he's just waiting for the roster setup questions to be answered before deciding how best to spend the rest of the money.
 
Enscheff said:
The DH decision is likely one of the dominos that is holding up the whole market. An extra ~6000 PAs spread out over 15 teams is a huge amount of value added to position players. That extra cash likely must come from what teams would allocate to pitchers. Any position player would be foolish to sign now, and any team committing cash to a pitcher now might end up looking foolish.

Additionally, teams would be wise to wait for more information about the success of the new vaccine distribution. A fully vaccinated public by summer would mean the difference between playing 162 games at nearly full attendance vs something significantly less lucrative.
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it is insane they haven’t decided the DH question yet. it was insane 2 months ago and it’s worse now. it’s holding up everything. a determination needs to be made.
 
Bell was basically a replacement level player before 2019 -- his defense absolutely killed his value. Not a bad risk if there's a DH, but the kind of guy you look to upgrade from if he's your everyday first baseman.
 
MadduxFanII said:
Bell was basically a replacement level player before 2019 -- his defense absolutely killed his value. Not a bad risk if there's a DH, but the kind of guy you look to upgrade from if he's your everyday first baseman.
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The positive for them in their situation (such that it is) is that they have their 1B situation "solved". They could still balance their lineup and make it at least somewhat threatening without breaking the bank. If they were able to add Villar in LF, Turner at 3B, and Duvall and one of Pederson/Rosario/Mazara as a DH platoon (if there is one), a Villar, Turner, Soto, Turner, Bell, DH wouldn't be "awful" with their SPs.

Being clear, I don't think that group would knock the Braves off - assuming AA adds a bat - but any team with three horses like they have at the top of their rotation will always be a threat. They wouldn't need a Top 5 offense if things start falling their way - just a "capable" one, and it's fair to say that Turner and Soto are in the conversation when ranking the most exciting duos in the game right now. JMO, but Turner's on the verge of that breakout season that puts him in the elite class of players.

*** On a separate note - the fact that Cherrington said "Likely won't be the last one. There will probably be more..." (https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/12/reactions-to-the-josh-bell-trade.html) sure makes me hope AA is at least checking in with them about what it would take to get Moran and/or Rodriguez in a deal.
 
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The Chosen One said:
I thought Manfred already said no DH for 2021?

What are teams holding out for?
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The "experts" - at least the ones on XM and The Network - continue talking as if it's still a negotiable situation. I guess it is in the long-term anyway. While they dance around the fact that it's a situation that only affects a handful of players (and really just a couple significant ones), the players' side has to love that it creates bad press for the Commissioner and owners. From the league's side you're right though, and I wouldn't even bother to answer questions about it if I were Manfred and the statement would be the same across the board - "The clubs were told to prepare as if there's going to be no DH in the NL this season, and that is the case today. The rules are clear, and everyone is aware of them." Both sides are just trying to position their side better for the end of the year when the CBA is up, and (as always) it's the fans that get the short end of the stick at the end of the day.

Everyone's playing this up as if it's making it impossible for GMs to construct their teams, but it honestly makes no difference for most of them. The main DH-only guys - Ozuna and Cruz - are only going to sign with true contenders unless someone makes them a truly ridiculous offer, so you can reasonably assume that half of the teams are "out" on them anyway even if the NL has the DH. I do believe AA is simply waiting for asking prices to drop, and that he's ready to finish things out either way - and I think it's fair to assume that other GMs are in exactly the same position. The Mutts, Jays, or Dodgers aren't waiting on a DH decision before trading for Lindor - they're waiting on Cleveland to ask for final offers. The same can probably be said about teams interested in Darvish, Gray, Snell, Bryant, etc.. The only one that's curious for me is the Twins and Cruz - unless the Twins are serious about trading for Story or one of the other SSs there really doesn't seem to be any reason they haven't worked something out since he apparently wants to go back there. The Cruz, Wainright, and Molina situations just feel like the Union is pressuring them to extract every last dime from the teams that they can in the hope that that will make it better for the other players sometime down the road - and again it's the fans that pay the price.
 
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