Looking Ahead - The 2020 Offseason Thread

[jpx7]

First item: There is so far no guarantee that baseball will be back to normal next year and if Covid continues thru winter I would bet that season will be shortened at best since NO TEAM can afford full contracts without the fans and concessions plus. Read todays item in MLBTradeRumors about Yanks position on Sanchez. We need a replacement for Flowers whomever it is and WE dont know that Contreras is ready. TDA has shown some worth as a DH. On the other side Brett Garland is probably thru. Yanks lux tax is in play, their remaining OFers are lumbering ox that would benefit from Enders glove/speed. Lots and lots of factors in consideration. Sanchez is only 27 and has had some good years. Never will be a gold glover but with our offense some of that is acceptable.
The one indisputable factor in play here is that, if everything we read is true about Pache and Waters, something has to be done about Ender.

I'm all for dumping Ender in a bad-contract-for-bad-contract swap—but I don't think Sánchez is the move. From this fangraphs article, entitled Gary Sánchez Keeps Getting Worse:

Overall, Gary Sánchez needs one or more of the following factors to improve while none of the others get any worse.

Quit pulling the ball (possible)
Make more contact (maybe)
Run faster (yea right)

I’m not betting on any of them. I think the best scenario is that he doesn’t get any worse. I think he’s degraded into an average catcher who has a .220 AVG and hits 15 to 25 HR. He needs to halt years of degrading talent just to stay even, let alone improve.

Just doesn't seem to be much untapped there, despite the high EV and barrel%, because of the issues Zimmerman outlines. The idea others have mentioned—trading Inciarte for an overpriced reliever (or even a struggling starter who might be productively converted to a relief role, à la Ian Kennedy)—seems much more plausible/palatable.

(On a slightly-related note: Jeff Samardzija is another guy I think could be picked up cheaply, given his bad past couple years, but might do well converted to a relief role.)

 

[PawPawMaxwell]

I kinda thought Smith was brought in to be closer when Melancon left. Cant see any other reason to pay him so much if not the case. In fact Im not sure we need to worry about replacing either considering those RPs already under contract. Webb looked good in his few innings, Minter should get more use next year, Martin will be back, agree that Matzek may be stretched out. Jackson is probably priced out. Again lots of in house options.

 

[jpx7]

I kinda thought Smith was brought in to be closer when Melancon left. Cant see any other reason to pay him so much if not the case. In fact Im not sure we need to worry about replacing either considering those RPs already under contract. Webb looked good in his few innings, Minter should get more use next year, Martin will be back, agree that Matzek may be stretched out. Jackson is probably priced out. Again lots of in house options.

I like that Melancon is dependable for the ninth, but also probably not the best reliever in the bunch—it frees up the actually be relievers to pitch the highest-leverage innings, while still having a pretty good, veteran, trustworthy option for the ninth inning. The results of 2020 notwithstanding, Smith is a better pitcher than Melancon; I like being able to deploy him whenever the leverage dictates, while still having a guy Snitker can call "closer".

 

[50PoundHead]

Melancon is a real throwback. Basically a two-pitch guy with the cutter and knuckle curve, neither of which is overpowering. He just bores in on the hitter. I can see him sticking around for a couple more years. Price will be the question (thanks, Captain Obvious).

 

[Heyward]

If money is workable, i'd have no problem bringing back MM. He turns 36 in March, so a 1 year deal to return would be smart if he'd agree. While Smith is probably better than MM, agree with jpx, that being able to bring in Smith in the 7th or 8th vs a teams middle of the order is huge to have.

Without Greene, and with MM, you probably have something like MM/closer, Smith/Martin backend guys, and Minter/O'Day/Webb/Matzek middle relief, and Tomlin as LM. And maybe throw a 1 yr deal to a couple reclamation projects. Our money of what we have should be used on the rotation and replacing Markakis and seeing what happens with Ozuna. The situation with Ender will certainly be interesting. All but imagine AA tries to do a bad contract swap, only question is does he need to throw in a prospect to make it happen.

 

[clvclv]

I could see something more along the lines of Inciarte for Grichuk. Toronto wants to move Grichuk and his money: 21/$10.33M, 22/$9.33M, 23/9.33M but still need a viable CF

Ender is: 21/$8M, 22/$9M club option or $1M buyout.

Grichuk wouldn't play CF for the Braves where his defense is a liability, but would be a move toward replacing Ozuna as a corner RH OF bat/DH where you can expect a ~750 OPS with some power.

Both are underwater contracts as far as trade value. Grichuk has the higher upside but more money and time committed. Ender had a much worse 2020 so the Braves might need to include a minor throw in to get the deal done.

Why on earth would someone want to replace a contract that's underwater with a contract that's underwater for longer - especially with Pache and Waters close???

I understand wanting to get rid of Ender (I want to as badly as anyone), but this makes no sense whatsoever. At the very least he keeps CF warm for a month to start the season while you game Pache and Waters' contracts and you wind up eating $6.5 million worth of his salary in 2021 and $1 million in 2022 while you're paying Pache and Waters peanuts. Bring Grichuk in and you pay him an extra $10+ million over two extra years to ride the pine. Michael Harris may be knocking on the door in 2023.

Ender for a bad contract SP or RP on a similar short-term deal might make some sense, but there really isn't one out there that won't cost you another prospect too. (Samardzija was released two weeks ago and Kennedy is a free-agent BTW.)

Bite the bullet, eat his money, and don't compound the mistake that the previous regime made by signing him to that extension. You might get the Red Sox to take him to keep CF warm for Duran and give you Martin Perez, but that would probably cost you Wilson, Davidson, or De La Cruz, and they may all be better Pitchers than Perez anyway.

 

[Horsehide Harry]

Enscheff is busy stalking around with his chest out again. So let's use this thread to discuss he and his toadies since they need the attention. No need to stay on topic since the topic isn't him. Might as well convert all threads to Enscheff, all day, all the time.

And.... this is exactly the point. You can't move on. You won't move on. And you believe, and probably correctly, that you don't have to move on, that you can just do whatever you want, whenever you want. You come back and kick sand in my face again, just because you think you can.

So, OK. Every chance I feel like it, from now on, I'm going to blow up and derail any thread where you appear. For any reason. Under any circumstances. At any time.

Mods, you've got a choice. Take out the trash permanently. Or perma-ban me. There is no cooling down/cooling off, "hey everybody just get along." I'm cool now. I just don't care and won't put up with it.

Face it. You've tried that and it doesn't work. What you've done is essentially enabled a bully and his toadies to ruin the experience for what I expect is a huge number of other posters. They can speak for themselves if they wish. They can choose my approach if they wish and run the bully and his toadies off by not enabling them and not standing for their actions. Or they can sit on their hands and grin when good 'ol Enscheff comes along for their lunch money. That's up to them.

For me, perma-ban me. That's cool. It's your board. Do as you wish. But at least everyone else will know where they stand.

 

[jpx7]

Why on earth would someone want to replace a contract that's underwater with a contract that's underwater for longer - especially with Pache and Waters close???

I understand wanting to get rid of Ender (I want to as badly as anyone), but this makes no sense whatsoever. At the very least he keeps CF warm for a month to start the season and you wind up eating $6.5 million worth of his salary in 2021 and $1 million in 2022 while you're paying Pache and Waters peanuts. Bring Grichuk in and you pay him an extra $10+ million over two extra years to ride the pine. Michael Harris may be knocking on the door in 2023.

I think it'd only make sense if the incoming underwater player plays a position where more depth is needed—hence the suggestions for a pitcher to throw into relief. You're right that the Braves don't really need anymore light-hitting CF-eligible players.

 

[clvclv]

I think it'd only make sense if the incoming underwater player plays a position where more depth is needed—hence the suggestions for a pitcher to throw into relief. You're right that the Braves don't really need anymore light-hitting CF-eligible players.

Again, that's fine - find one. Samardzija and Kennedy aren't options - SF and KC don't control them anymore.

 

[jpx7]

Again, that's fine - find one. Samardzija and Kennedy aren't options - SF and KC don't control them anymore.

Sure—those guys would be FA options (especially Samardzija, who still sees good spin rates on his fastballs, but clearly shouldn't be starting anymore). I realize they're FAs.

As for actual options for whom Inciarte might be traded: I haven't looked into actual options, and instead just endorsing the general core-concept.

 

[clvclv]

Sure—those guys would be FA options (especially Samardzija, who still sees good spin rates on his fastballs, but clearly shouldn't be starting anymore). I realize they're FAs.

As for actual options for whom Inciarte might be traded: I haven't looked into actual options, and instead just endorsing the general core-concept.

Unfortunately I have - and there just doesn't seem to be much out there. With everyone always looking for pitching, the few teams with SPs or RPs with similar contracts appear to be better off keeping those arms and piecing something together in CF since there will be guys like JBJ, Pillar, Marisnick, Michael Taylor, and Dyson potentially out there to be had on even cheaper 1 year deals.

 

[jpx7]

Unfortunately I have - and there just doesn't seem to be much out there. With everyone always looking for pitching, the few teams with SPs or RPs with similar contracts appear to be better off keeping those arms and piecing something together in CF since there will be guys like JBJ, Pillar, Marisnick, Michael Taylor, and Dyson potentially out there to be had on even cheaper 1 year deals.

It'd have to be something like Inciarte for Cueto plus ~$8m, where the Giants still save $8m, accrue some OF depth, and the Braves put Cueto in the bullpen and tell him to never throw his four-seamer.

I wouldn't actually advocate for that specific deal, but it has the general contours of what potentially-productive Inciarte-dump might look like.

All in all, though, I think just retaining Inciarte as the early-season CF, eventual back-OF is the most likely eventuality.

 

[Horsehide Harry]

Why on earth would someone want to replace a contract that's underwater with a contract that's underwater for longer - especially with Pache and Waters close???

I understand wanting to get rid of Ender (I want to as badly as anyone), but this makes no sense whatsoever. At the very least he keeps CF warm for a month to start the season while you game Pache and Waters' contracts and you wind up eating $6.5 million worth of his salary in 2021 and $1 million in 2022 while you're paying Pache and Waters peanuts. Bring Grichuk in and you pay him an extra $10+ million over two extra years to ride the pine. Michael Harris may be knocking on the door in 2023.

Ender for a bad contract SP or RP on a similar short-term deal might make some sense, but there really isn't one out there that won't cost you another prospect too. (Samardzija was released two weeks ago and Kennedy is a free-agent BTW.)

Bite the bullet, eat his money, and don't compound the mistake that the previous regime made by signing him to that extension. You might get the Red Sox to take him to keep CF warm for Duran and give you Martin Perez, but that would probably cost you Wilson, Davidson, or De La Cruz, and they may all be better Pitchers than Perez anyway.

Grichuk is Ozuna lite. But his cost is less. And it's still possible he has more to give.

If you assume Ozuna isn't coming back, which I think is a good assumption at this point, then you need to replace his production. Grichuk wouldn't replace it all, but at least some. And while he isn't a good CF, he's a better defender than Ozuna by miles.

So to me the equation is: Grichuk replaces part of what Ozuna brings at essentially neutral cost with Inciarte which leaves whatever portion of Ozuna's salary is available to fill in gaps. Pache/Waters replace Inciarte and give you more. So Pache/Waters + Grichuk + leftover cash > Inciarte + Ozuna

 

[jpx7]

Grichuk is Ozuna lite. But his cost is less. And it's still possible he has more to give.

If you assume Ozuna isn't coming back, which I think is a good assumption at this point, then you need to replace his production. Grichuk wouldn't replace it all, but at least some. And while he isn't a good CF, he's a better defender than Ozuna by miles.

So to me the equation is: Grichuk replaces part of what Ozuna brings at essentially neutral cost with Inciarte which leaves whatever portion of Ozuna's salary is available to fill in gaps. Pache/Waters replace Inciarte and give you more. So Pache/Waters + Grichuk + leftover cash > Inciarte + Ozuna

He doesn't have Ozuna's elite EV—Grichuk's has trended down every year, and he's now middle-of-the-pack—but he does have very good xBA, xSLG, and barrel%. Mediocre bb%, but he's improved his k% the last few years. Good sprint speed. Miscast as a CF, but could probably hold down a corner well. Kills fastballs. Wish he were a LHH, but otherwise not a bad profile.

The problem is that he's still owed ~$30m over the next three years, the Braves really could use LHH (hence the Pederson interest), and they have decent OF depth. As the Dodgers argue, more depth is never a bad thing—but, while 2021 would basically be a wash, I'm just not sure he'd be the best use of 2022–23 resources.

 

[clvclv]

Duplicate.

 

[clvclv]

It'd have to be something like Inciarte for Cueto plus ~$8m, where the Giants still save $8m, accrue some OF depth, and the Braves put Cueto in the bullpen and tell him to never throw his four-seamer.

I wouldn't actually advocate for that specific deal, but it has the general contours of what potentially-productive Inciarte-dump might look like.

All in all, though, I think just retaining Inciarte as the early-season CF, eventual back-OF is the most likely eventuality.

Yeah, that's the problem - most Pitchers who MIGHT be available in that type of deal are going to kill whatever financial flexibility AA might have.

I'd much rather cross my fingers and hope Ender finds enough of something over the winter to let him keep a roster spot warm for the first month and pay Melancon (or another FA pen arm) than try to turn Cueto into a useful RP. Don't forget Cueto's 2022 option costs $5 million while Ender's only costs $1 million. Adding any 2022 payroll wouldn't strike me as a good idea (it's going to be tough enough to swallow Ender's buyout) - Acuna gets a $10 million raise, Freddie becomes a free-agent, and Dansby, Fried, and Soroka could all be in line for significant arbitration raises.

 

[jpx7]

Duplicate.

I was accounting for both Cueto's $5m buyout and Inciarte's $1m buyout. But yea, like I said: not a move for which I'd advocate, just probably the sort of rough shape a bad-for-bad swap would need to take.

 

[DirkPiggler]

Grichuk is Ozuna lite. But his cost is less. And it's still possible he has more to give.

If you assume Ozuna isn't coming back, which I think is a good assumption at this point, then you need to replace his production. Grichuk wouldn't replace it all, but at least some. And while he isn't a good CF, he's a better defender than Ozuna by miles.

So to me the equation is: Grichuk replaces part of what Ozuna brings at essentially neutral cost with Inciarte which leaves whatever portion of Ozuna's salary is available to fill in gaps. Pache/Waters replace Inciarte and give you more. So Pache/Waters + Grichuk + leftover cash > Inciarte + Ozuna

Grichuk seems more like a second version of Duvall, but at a much higher cost. Don't see how that helps...especially given the longer term commitment required.

 

[Heyward]

Cant see AA taking on Grichuk. Only thing i wonder if AA just outright DFA's Ender.

 

[NinersSBChamps]

Nice troll job by Bauer. If the Nats were actually meeting with him right now it would be a massive tampering problem. Bauer is still under contract with Cincinnati and no team can talk to him until he's officially a free agent.

Maybe he did that on purpose knowing the Nats are competition to the Braves. Could be a master plan he’s cooking up!