Looking Ahead - The 2020 Offseason Thread

[clvclv]

bravesfansince1966
2:41 I dissagree with Ozuna's so called shabby OF work this year. I watched every Braves game and he played a very passable LF. In fact he played it better some of the regular Left Fielders in both leagues!
Tim Dierkes
2:42 That may be so. He mostly gets static over his arm, so for him to play an acceptable LF for one year is reasonable enough.

We need this guy and his keen scouting eye on this board!

To be fair, when using the "eye test" everyone's going to be more likely to see what they're looking for when just watching - whether they want him to be decent OR terrible. I don't think Ozuna struck anyone as a particularly good fielder, but there weren't tons of instances where he REALLY hurt you - for all his troubles, he finished with 0 DRS.

Don't misunderstand, there's no way in *ell I'd give him a 3-4 year deal if there was any chance I'd have to worry about him playing defense beyond 2021 (he's absolutely just going to get worse), but even you have said you'd be willing to live with him out there for one more season if AA could somehow afford to bring him back.

 

[50PoundHead]

Oh I would have picked Machado too. Tatis struggled bad to end the season. But with the hype of Tatis I'm surprised most voters picked up on this.

And I'm guessing these 3 finalists are just the top 3 vote getters.

I was a little surprised even given Tatis' fall-off in performance. Tatis was the "cool new toy" on a surprising team and sometimes writers fall for that. I wouldn't have been disappointed to see Tatis in the Final 3, but I agree Machado is the better choice.

 

[Hudson2]

Freeman better not get screwed

 

[Enscheff]

That's the driving factor for my preference of Rosario or Brantley over the other options - either of those guys can hold down LF alone. That allows you to revisit the Duvall/Inciarte platoon while gaming Pache's clock. If that's going well after you've gained the extra control over Pache, Acuna can slide back over to RF full time and you can platoon Ender/Pache and Duvall/Rosario or Brantley. Since Ender's "dead money", AA can't really go out and sign platoon partners for BOTH Duvall and Riley if he's going to plug all the holes.

As for "nickel-brains", I'm not particularly concerned about that anymore. The last two guys brought in to "protect" Freddie were well-known quirky personality guys, and AA wasn't overly concerned with them OR adding Puig to the mix before his COVID snafu. If Snit has proven he's really good at ANYTHING, it's that he's very good at getting a diverse group of different personalities to put everything else aside when it's time to go to work. I'm fairly confident that AA can bring in anyone that makes sense from a financial standpoint and they'll fit in as long as they want to win above all else.

If we assume Pache will be the CFer for the vast majority of 2021, getting someone cheaper like Joc to platoon with Duvall in LF is probably better than paying a premium for someone like Brantley with Duvall glued to the bench...unless Duvall is dumped. At that point Ender can face a few RHH to give Pache a rest.

 

[Hudson2]

If they go after Joc to platoon with Duval (I’m fine with it) then we need to upgrade 3b if there is no DH next year. If the DH is in place then Riley is ok at 3b. The DH thing has to be settled in the next week imo.

 

[Enscheff]

If they go after Joc to platoon with Duval (I’m fine with it) then we need to upgrade 3b if there is no DH next year. If the DH is in place then Riley is ok at 3b. The DH thing has to be settled in the next week imo.

Oh definitely.

With the DH an offseason like Joc, Cruz, Lester/Waino and a bargain BP arm like MM for $4M should be affordable and result in a roster as strong as the 2020 team. It also gives Riley another 300-400 PAs to see if he can build on the improvements he made in 2020, which I think is in the organization's best interest barring a trade involving him.

Without the DH they probably need someone like Springer or maybe Turner to have anything resembling what they had in 2020. AA will need to find that impact RHH to compliment Freeman if Acuna is going to leadoff forever. Expecting a repeat performance from TDA is probably unwise.

 

[Russ2dollas]

Gausman got a QO?

The market is saying weird things about starting pitching.

I'd love it if this was a NBA style cap move and other tanking teams did it.

What I mean is sign Gausman to the 18 million. Eat 15 million and trade him to someone else for prospects. San Fran needs more talent IMO.

There is no salary floor in MLB. But if I was a bottom feeder I'd think real hard about trying to do some creative things to take advantage of this situation.

 

[Enscheff]

I'd love it if this was a NBA style cap move and other tanking teams did it.

What I mean is sign Gausman to the 18 million. Eat 15 million and trade him to someone else for prospects. San Fran needs more talent IMO.

There is no salary floor in MLB. But if I was a bottom feeder I'd think real hard about trying to do some creative things to take advantage of this situation.

This type of move to circumvent the luxury tax is expressly forbade by the commissioners office and would not be approved. Sign and trades are a nonstarter.

 

[Hudson2]

Oh definitely.

With the DH an offseason like Joc, Cruz, Lester/Waino and a bargain BP arm like MM for $4M should be affordable and result in a roster as strong as the 2020 team. It also gives Riley another 300-400 PAs to see if he can build on the improvements he made in 2020, which I think is in the organization's best interest barring a trade involving him.

Without the DH they probably need someone like Springer or maybe Turner to have anything resembling what they had in 2020. AA will need to find that impact RHH to compliment Freeman if Acuna is going to leadoff forever. Expecting a repeat performance from TDA is probably unwise.

I agree. Springer would be my main target if the DH is gone. I know people say Brantley but we have to have a RHH power bat regardless. I wonder if the Dodgers would really let Turner leave? I think he stays there but I’d reach out to him regardless. Lester and Morton would really set up the rotation nicely for next year along with 2 more good bullpen arms. With the market being flooded with so many good options I have no doubt that AA checks off all the boxes with quality guys.

 

[clvclv]

If we assume Pache will be the CFer for the vast majority of 2021, getting someone cheaper like Joc to platoon with Duvall in LF is probably better than paying a premium for someone like Brantley with Duvall glued to the bench...unless Duvall is dumped. At that point Ender can face a few RHH to give Pache a rest.

The less money spent, the better - of course. My angle with adding one of the Rosario/Brantley duo is that it ensures you never have to play Ender against a LHP - Duvall plays RF against them and Acuna slides over.

It all probably hinges on how many games will be played next season and just how long Pache has to stay down. According to his updated FanGraphs page we burned 22 days of service-time with him, so he's obviously not coming up two weeks in. Does that mean we don't see him until June if there's a full slate of games in 2022? I have no idea - you guys are better at figuring that out than I am. My point is that platooning Duvall and Pederson in LF means you're going to have to play one of Ender or Pederson against LHPs (or Duvall against RHPs if you want Ender to sit against them) - and depending on what happens with Pache's clock you could be looking at having to do that for 2 whole months. That's something I don't think any of us want to see.

If AA somehow pulls off a reasonable trade for Bryant, then dumping Duvall, Jackson, and Camargo to come up with the money to pay Pederson would make more sense. If Riley wasn't in the deal (can't see how he wouldn't be) he or Bryant could platoon with Pederson in LF while the other plays 3B, but you'd still be stuck with Ender (or Almonte) playing quite a bit of CF during the first half.

Even though the market's going to be significantly depressed, I just have a really tough time seeing how AA can bring Ozuna back (much less fit a $20 million AAV player in) - unless Liberty's going to let him spend significantly more money than we think they will. If that turns out to be the case, it would seem like splurging on Springer would be the play while the market's bad for everyone. You could flank Freddie with Acuna and Springer and then possibly pivot and include Waters and/or Riley in a deal for an inexpensive 3B upgrade (or maybe circle back to Seager and find out what prospect along with Riley would convince them to eat the vast majority of his money). Hard to imagine that an Acuna/Freeman/Springer/Seager/d'Arnaud/Ozzie/Dansby offense wouldn't scare the absolute *hit out of everybody.

(DISCLOSURE - all my theories are obviously based on there being no NL DH in 2022. Indications thus far have been that that's going to be the case.)

 

[clvclv]

I agree. Springer would be my main target if the DH is gone. I know people say Brantley but we have to have a RHH power bat regardless. I wonder if the Dodgers would really let Turner leave? I think he stays there but I’d reach out to him regardless. Lester and Morton would really set up the rotation nicely for next year along with 2 more good bullpen arms. With the market being flooded with so many good options I have no doubt that AA checks off all the boxes with quality guys.

Yeah, but you're mentioning WAY too many of them.

All signs point to AA maybe having $30 million to plug all the holes with. If he spends $22 million per on someone like Springer and adds any of the SPs, he's completely broke (and has nothing free to use at the deadline).

 

[Enscheff]

If someone with platoon issues like Joc is acquired there is no way Duvall is not on this team.

What AA does with Duvall will reveal a lot about his plans for the OF. Duvall tendered a contract means AA will be shopping for a platoon partner at best, and quite possibly nothing more than an OF bench player. I suspect Duvall is tendered a contract, and AA gets the best LHH OFer to compliment him that he can afford after acquiring a RHH and a SP.

I do agree that the only way Bryant makes sense is if Riley is the centerpiece of the return, or traded for a LHH OFer.

 

[Enscheff]

Yeah, but you're mentioning WAY too many of them.

All signs point to AA maybe having $30 million to plug all the holes with. If he spends $22 million per on someone like Springer and adds any of the SPs, he's completely broke (and has nothing free to use at the deadline).

Without the DH, Springer plus Morton would fill the 2 main holes available to fill (assuming "seeing what Riley can do" is a goal for 2021).

I doubt AA splurges on Springer, mainly due to the years, but it's reasonable if the DH isn't in play.

 

[clvclv]

If someone with platoon issues like Joc is acquired there is no way Duvall is not on this team.

What AA does with Duvall will reveal a lot about his plans for the OF. Duvall tendered a contract means AA will be shopping for a platoon partner at best, and quite possibly nothing more than an OF bench player. I suspect Duvall is tendered a contract, and AA gets the best LHH OFer to compliment him that he can afford after acquiring a RHH and a SP.

I do agree that the only way Bryant makes sense is if Riley is the centerpiece of the return, or traded for a LHH OFer.

This is why I mentioned names like Matt Joyce, Jon Jay, or even (God forbid) Markakis a while back. Certainly not ideal by any stretch, but if you get one of them on the cheap you might have the money to make a play for Ozuna (although I still think that's a stretch - and that's IF you're prepared to live with his defense if there's no DH. The CHEAP, part-time platoon partner for Duvall is probably exactly what Almonte was brought in to be - assuming he looks decent during camp.

If there's no DH and you have to play Ozuna in LF, Acuna plays CF against LHPs and you play Duvall - leaving Ender/Almonte in CF against RHPs.

 

[clvclv]

Without the DH, Springer plus Morton would fill the 2 main holes available to fill (assuming "seeing what Riley can do" is a goal for 2021).

I doubt AA splurges on Springer, mainly due to the years, but it's reasonable if the DH isn't in play.

If you can live with Ozuna's defense for a year, bringing him back and adding Morton would make worlds of sense - especially if you could get Morton at ~ $8 million. Dumping Duvall, Camargo, and Jackson would theoretically be enough to pay Morton, leaving you $12 million to bring Melancon and Greene back, while adding your backup SS (and maybe C).

 

[Southcack77]

If we assume Pache will be the CFer for the vast majority of 2021, getting someone cheaper like Joc to platoon with Duvall in LF is probably better than paying a premium for someone like Brantley with Duvall glued to the bench...unless Duvall is dumped. At that point Ender can face a few RHH to give Pache a rest.

Sign Joc at 9m.
Trade Ender for Seagar. +10m.
Melancon 4m.
Morton 10m.
Greene 3m
36m



Albies
Acuna
Freeman
D'Arnaud
Seagar
Peterson/Duvall
Swanson
Pache

Fried
Morton
Soroka
Anderson
---

Melancon
Greene
Smith
Minter
Matzek
...

 

[Enscheff]

AA seems to target guys with predictive stats like xwOBA suggest is a .380 wOBA guy or thereabouts. It may not be xwOBA that they use, but something similar that takes batted ball profile and produces a value based on a similar algorithm.

Looking at the combined xwOBA value for RHH over 2019-2020 as a proxy for whatever batted ball profile predictive stat the Braves use, these are the available guys who fit that criteria (min 2500 pitches seen):

Cruz .403
Springer .399
Ozuna .397
Turner .383
Bryant .339 (.354 in 2019)

So I expect AA to make a play on 1 of those 5 bats to fill the JD/Ozuna void.

Bryant is a clear notch below the other 4, and would require a trade and/or roster shuffling, so I think he is the least desirable.

Springer will probably be too expensive for too many years, but who knows how this offseason will play out.

No DH means no Cruz...period. DH means Cruz becomes #1 option in my opinion.

Turner requires something to be done with Riley, which isn't a huge road block.

Ozuna fits with or without the DH since they could live with his defense for 1 season, but 4 years is almost certainly not happening.

 

[Russ2dollas]

What do people think AA is going to do? The most sound thing for value is to sit out the offseason and when the music stops on musical chairs, pick off the guys w/o options. There are likely to be very talented guys without a home.

I tend to think he'll go bold early and make a big move. Set the market and get the guy he wants. Then he'll settle in to trade talk and look to pick off left over guys for BP. I really wonder if he'll jump in on Springer early.

I also wonder if anyone signing a big multiyear deal would be willing to dramatically lower the next year's price. For example if Springer was willing to do 5/125, would be he willing to take 10 next year and 30 year 2, 3, and 4? Normally, no way, but maybe yes if that gets you the guaranteed dollars you want.
s

 

[Southcack77]

I think I missed some rocky routes or something in some games, but I didn't think Ozuna was so bad getting to the ball in LF.

His arm certainly was a different story, but I think you can live with the total package.

I think AA will not pay a premium for him, but it's possible the Covid discount could keep him reasonably priced.

.......


One thing I will say is that the Braves figured to have one of the more flexible payrolls in the league coming into this offseason. Assuming austerity hits everyone roughly the same way, it seems hard to imagine the Braves would not be in a relatively good position.

So I kind of wonder if FA number are projected too high. It's hard to make the Braves as good a team with only 35 million to play with and I'm not sure that any of the Braves free agents were really underpaid.

 

[clvclv]

AA seems to target guys with predictive stats like xwOBA suggest is a .380 wOBA guy or thereabouts. It may not be xwOBA that they use, but something similar that takes batted ball profile and produces a value based on a similar algorithm.

Looking at the combined xwOBA value for RHH over 2019-2020 as a proxy for whatever batted ball profile predictive stat the Braves use, these are the available guys who fit that criteria (min 2500 pitches seen):

Cruz .403
Springer .399
Ozuna .397
Turner .383
Bryant .339 (.354 in 2019)

So I expect AA to make a play on 1 of those 5 bats to fill the JD/Ozuna void.

Bryant is a clear notch below the other 4, and would require a trade and/or roster shuffling, so I think he is the least desirable.

Springer will probably be too expensive for too many years, but who knows how this offseason will play out.

No DH means no Cruz...period. DH means Cruz becomes #1 option in my opinion.

Turner requires something to be done with Riley, which isn't a huge road block.

Ozuna fits with or without the DH since they could live with his defense for 1 season, but 4 years is almost certainly not happening.

They were just talking to Stan Kasten a little bit ago on XM - I get the feeling Turner's going nowhere. They're always going to have flexibility - Kasten went out of his way to point that out while also going out of his way to make sure he explained that no one at any level of their organization had a problem with Turner coming back out on the field to celebrate with them. It's pretty easy for everyone to forget that they'll add Price to their rotation next year without having to make a move.

Sure have to give Friedman and their management group a lot of credit for their patience (which probably explains AA's transformation since his Toronto days). Pretty tough to imagine that there's a better fit for Brad Hand anywhere other than with L. A., but holding off and not putting a waiver claim in for him probably makes signing him a salary-neutral (at worst) deal for them assuming they move on from Pederson.