bravesfanMatt
Steve Harvey'd
Um. They will be paying him at least 15 million until 2028.
Looking Ahead - The 2020 Offseason Thread
- Thread starter clvclv
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Um. They will be paying him at least 15 million until 2028.
zbhargrove
Well-known member
Is this because of deferred money or something? Because next year is the last year of his contract
bravesfanMatt
Steve Harvey'd
Yes. Like 105 million was deferred to be paid from 22 to 28
NYCBrave
Well-known member
The Reds could actually do a quick rebuild/reload if they do this right. They have some valuable assets that If they hold onto much longer will lose value.
Heyward
<B>Voted Worst Poster <br>'13, '14, '15 (Co-Winner
they still dont have many big contracts. They could very easily do Realmuto but i dont know if he'd want a deferred contract.
bravesfanMatt
Steve Harvey'd
The nats are a team I don’t really know much about. How many holes they have to fill and all. They could be good or bad. I just didn’t follow them much last year.
Nats have gotten a bit fortunate in that their big contracts they've handed out recently have all seemingly worked out and haven't handcuffed them financially. They're farm has also sustained them. But now that farm is drying up and all that deferred money is starting to add up.
Russ2dollas
10 yr, $185 million Extension
If the Reds are broke and/or realizing they can't go far right now, they do have the opportunity to do a quick turnaround.
Getting guys that are close to MLB, like the braves have, could be very interesting. I would think Waters, Shewmake and both Catchers would be interesting to them. I'm not excited about losing any of those guys, but you'd have to look into it.
PawPawMaxwell
Called Up to the Major Leagues
Reds talking about moving their rotation foundation and Suarez but havent heard anything about Castellanos or Moustakas. If they truly want to drop payroll I would think Waters for Castellanos would be ideal for them. At the same time I dont see the Braves moving Riley for any short term 3B or LF. Saying that Riley is going to get every opportunity to succeed while cost is low.
50PoundHead
Hessmania Forever
When you mentioned Moustakas, I wondered "Why not him?" but then I looked at the size of his contract. Four years of Suarez is cheaper than three years of Moustakas.
Why in the hell would the Braves trade Waters for Castellanos? Castellanos has negative value. I'd be willing to bet if he was put on waivers, Castellanos would pass through the entire league without anyone making a claim.
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PawPawMaxwell
Called Up to the Major Leagues
I dont know how you determine Castellanos has no value and I dont know how you can determine Waters value at this time based solely on potential.
It's pretty easy to determine both of those things actually.
We know Waters is listed as a top 100 prospect by every major scouting service. He's regarded as one our 3 best prospects by pretty much every single source too. Pretty easy to follow that he has a good amount of value.
Castellanos is getting paid an average of 15 million dollars a year to be a 2ish WAR player. He's likely to decline from this point of his career.If he were a FA tomorrow, it's pretty unlikely he receives the guaranteed portion of his remaining contract, which is 3 years and 48 million. Especially given the current landscape of the market. That gives him basically zero value for all intents and purposes. Again, I would be willing to bet a good amount of money that he would pass through waivers completely unclaimed.
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But for a better reference using Fangraphs:
Waters is rated as a 50 FV prospect. Using their surplus value calculator, that gives him roughly 30 million in surplus value (perhaps even a bit more since he was rated a 55 FV player before a midseason reshuffling of prospects).
Prior to 2020 (which I won't use for obvious reasons) Castellanos had averaged 2.4 WAR over the previous 4 seasons. Even if I am generous and assume he maintains slightly over a 2 WAR level for the remainder of his guaranteed years, that puts him at 6-7 WAR over the next 3 years. WAR is generally valued around 9 million/WAR, so that 54-63 million. Then subtract the amount of guaranteed money he has remaining, which is 48 million, and you have a player that has roughly 8-17 million in surplus value (which is barely any value even with an optimistic forecast).
If you think Castellanos will be provide a total of 4-5 WAR over those remaining 3 years (like I do), then he has negative value.
Waters is rated as a 50 FV prospect. Using their surplus value calculator, that gives him roughly 30 million in surplus value (perhaps even a bit more since he was rated a 55 FV player before a midseason reshuffling of prospects).
Prior to 2020 (which I won't use for obvious reasons) Castellanos had averaged 2.4 WAR over the previous 4 seasons. Even if I am generous and assume he maintains slightly over a 2 WAR level for the remainder of his guaranteed years, that puts him at 6-7 WAR over the next 3 years. WAR is generally valued around 9 million/WAR, so that 54-63 million. Then subtract the amount of guaranteed money he has remaining, which is 48 million, and you have a player that has roughly 8-17 million in surplus value (which is barely any value even with an optimistic forecast).
If you think Castellanos will be provide a total of 4-5 WAR over those remaining 3 years (like I do), then he has negative value.
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UNCBlue012
Well-known member
Suarez is the exact guy to go all-in for. I'd trade Waters + Riley in a heartbeat.
PawPawMaxwell
Called Up to the Major Leagues
I will have to just disagree with you in this case. Castellanos has not an OPS+ below average in several years now. If he was to be waived Im pretty sure that there would be several other NL teams willing to claim him as a potential DH and in place DH in coming years. We all have our favorites but as a RH bat to protect Freddie I dont know of many who fill the bill any better. Going on, the real deal would be Waters plus for Luis Castillo if we would take on Castellanos or Moustakas. Same deal kinda for Saurez. Now Ill ask for your consideration to a deal where Braves kill all of their birds with one deal. Castellanos for DH and part time OFer, Saurez for 3b and Castillo for the rotation. What would you give up in addition to Ender?
It is clear you have no idea how to value MLB assets.
Carp is 100% right and explained it very well.
I'd rather steer clear of Castellanos completely. 3 years and 48 million is too much money to commit to a bat only player. We don't know when the universal DH will be agreed to and his defense is atrocious. Even swapping out Ender for him only helps us out in 2021. Paying him 16 million each in 2022 and 2023 when he's likely to be a much worse player isn't a great strategy imo. There are many bat first players available that can be had for much cheaper than Castellanos.
Brantley will likely sign a 2 year deal for a similar average annual value and is much better overall player than Castellanos. Likewise, Eddie Rosario and Joc Pederson are roughly equal players to Castellanos and might both be available on a 1 year deal. I would even try to sign Puig again before trading for Castellanos.
Brantley will likely sign a 2 year deal for a similar average annual value and is much better overall player than Castellanos. Likewise, Eddie Rosario and Joc Pederson are roughly equal players to Castellanos and might both be available on a 1 year deal. I would even try to sign Puig again before trading for Castellanos.
PawPawMaxwell
Called Up to the Major Leagues
I will be the first to admit that the sabremetrics are out of my league but I have been around long enough to know that everyday someone will come along with another savant prediction. Now if you would get your nose out of Brian Kenny's ass instead of snidely commenting on everything and everyone it would be a better day. Have a very Merry Christmas.