Looking Ahead - The 2020 Offseason Thread

[tululush]

Mish with the obvious tweet: If the DH returns to the National League, I can see Marcell Ozuna returning to Atlanta. If it does not, those chances drop significantly. Ozuna has been and still is looking for a multi-year deal coming off a great 2020.

I understand waiting out the market to some extent, but if AA was ok with signing Ozuna last year to play a full-time LF, then I don't understand why signing Ozuna with the possibility that he may have to play LF full-time this season should be of any concern. The DH is coming. It will either happen in 2021 or 2022. Either way we can slot him into the DH spot, and at worst we have him play LF for one season, which AA was comfortable doing last season. I can't imagine his defense has regressed that much. Also with Pache in center and Acuna in right, you can shade Pache over toward left and still have enough range to cover up Ozuna's shortcomings. Hopefully we sign our big bat soon and can then start to work on some secondary pieces.

I'd still like to trade for J-Ram and then use what money is left over and sign Ozuna. I know that's a pipe dream, but one I wish would happen. That would instantly solve our offensive "problems," and we'd pick up right where we left off last season, offensively.

 

[jgriff3029]

I understand waiting out the market to some extent, but if AA was ok with signing Ozuna last year to play a full-time LF, then I don't understand why signing Ozuna with the possibility that he may have to play LF full-time this season should be of any concern. The DH is coming. It will either happen in 2021 or 2022. Either way we can slot him into the DH spot, and at worst we have him play LF for one season, which AA was comfortable doing last season. I can't imagine his defense has regressed that much. Also with Pache in center and Acuna in right, you can shade Pache over toward left and still have enough range to cover up Ozuna's shortcomings. Hopefully we sign our big bat soon and can then start to work on some secondary pieces.

I'd still like to trade for J-Ram and then use what money is left over and sign Ozuna. I know that's a pipe dream, but one I wish would happen. That would instantly solve our offensive "problems," and we'd pick up right where we left off last season, offensively.

AA was fine giving Ozuna a one year contract to play left not 3 or 4 years like he is asking now. I know that more than likely, he would only play left one year om this contract, but it is not guaranteed. If Ozuna agreed to another one year contract, he would already be signed.

 

[Enscheff]

Ozuna would be foolish to sign any deal before the DH is decided. That decision could add several bidders for him in the NL and get him a 4 year deal. He should be looking for the deal JD got from the Twins.

As of now nobody has been signed or traded that was a realistic fit for the Braves. All the impact RHHs are still available to replace Ozuna, all the LHH OFers are still available to replace Markakis, and all the other RHH OFers are still available to replace Duvall. They already got the best SP option for the roster, and AA is stuck in this wait and see scenario for all the bats that fit this roster.

 

[tululush]

Ozuna would be foolish to sign any deal before the DH is decided. That decision could add several bidders for him in the NL and get him a 4 year deal. He should be looking for the deal JD got from the Twins.

As of now nobody has been signed or traded that was a realistic fit for the Braves. All the impact RHHs are still available to replace Ozuna, all the LHH OFers are still available to replace Markakis, and all the other RHH OFers are still available to replace Duvall. They already got the best SP option for the roster, and AA is stuck in this wait and see scenario for all the bats that fit this roster.

The fact that Manfred and MLB hasn't made a decision the DH is pretty ridiculous. We're pretty much in February and not knowing has held the majority of the free agents hostage. How much longer can we realistically expect to know before owners just have to make an educated guess as to when/if the DH is coming to the NL?

 

[Super]

Ozuna would be foolish to sign any deal before the DH is decided. That decision could add several bidders for him in the NL and get him a 4 year deal. He should be looking for the deal JD got from the Twins.

As of now nobody has been signed or traded that was a realistic fit for the Braves. All the impact RHHs are still available to replace Ozuna, all the LHH OFers are still available to replace Markakis, and all the other RHH OFers are still available to replace Duvall. They already got the best SP option for the roster, and AA is stuck in this wait and see scenario for all the bats that fit this roster.

but to tulu's point, if it's in all likelihood just *one* year where Ozuna may have to play the field, and the rest of the say 4-year deal he can DH, what's the big problem with that at this point? did AA get a much better look last year and see something we didn't know about his defense before?

 

[clvclv]

This is always the puzzling time of the year for me. Adrianza is a better player than Mayfield (and Garlick), but Mayfield is on the 40-man and Adrianza is on a minor league deal. I get that there are financial considerations, but it's always interesting how this time of year plays out.

Just guessing Adrianza is technically at the top of the list since he has the higher guaranteed salary if he makes the club and neither guy has an option left. I guess the two are actually competing for the spot, but since it appears he was chosen over Villar and Miller because of his SS defense (definitely wasn't his bat) and they've seen him be somewhat effective as a utility guy and he hits from both sides it just seems like he's at the top of that depth chart (to begin with anyway). I think most of us would agree that Mayfield has felt like more of a depth piece to be tucked away at Gwinnett since the day he was signed - just seems like a guy who would accept a minor league deal if you let him "compete" for a spot until the end of camp. Don't think there would be much of a market for Mayfield if you cut him and someone would probably scoop Adrianza up if you try to send him to Gwinnett.

 

[50PoundHead]

Just guessing Adrianza is technically at the top of the list since he has the higher guaranteed salary if he makes the club and neither guy has an option left. I guess the two are actually competing for the spot, but since it appears he was chosen over Villar and Miller because of his SS defense (definitely wasn't his bat) and they've seen him be somewhat effective as a utility guy and he hits from both sides it just seems like he's at the top of that depth chart (to begin with anyway). I think most of us would agree that Mayfield has felt like more of a depth piece to be tucked away at Gwinnett since the day he was signed - just seems like a guy who would accept a minor league deal if you let him "compete" for a spot until the end of camp. Don't think there would be much of a market for Mayfield if you cut him and someone would probably scoop Adrianza up if you try to send him to Gwinnett.

All true. You mentioned Miller. I wonder what his market is going to end up being. Miller has pretty much moved off shortstop since his first year in Tampa, but the guy can hit some.

If and when the Braves sign someone to a major league deal, it's my guess that Mayfield and/or Garlick will be on waivers in the nanosecond after the ink dries. It always puzzles me why teams even bother with guys like that during the off-season. There is really nothing in either of their profiles that indicates there is anything there in terms of big league value.

 

[clvclv]

Matz was a DFA candidate and a team actually gave up prospects to get him plus his full 5.2 million salary???

The added depth certainly won't hurt them and the Jays still have piles of money available to spend. The only Toronto prospect arm "ready" for a rotation spot is Pearson, so it's not like they had a handful of better options, and I'll be surprised if they don't add at least one more SP (free-agent or trade) before camp starts. Reid-Foley only has one option left and Winckowski has to be added to the Mutts' 40-Man Roster if they want to keep him next winter so calling the return "prospects" is probably a little generous.

 

[clvclv]

All true. You mentioned Miller. I wonder what his market is going to end up being. Miller has pretty much moved off shortstop since his first year in Tampa, but the guy can hit some.

I thought Miller was still a possibility (and still might be) - even without the ability to play SS - because of that bat. Just figure adding him and cutting Camargo loose would be improving around the edges unless someone in the organization is actually comfortable with Johan at SS (even for a short period) or thinks he's suddenly going to hit better from the left side.

 

[Carp]

Mancini certainly seems like a DH only guy. I prefer Success Rate Added over Outs Above Average because rate stats are better when comparing players who don’t get as many chances as a CFer.

Success Rate Added in 2019 for a few guys of interest (2020 data is pretty meaningless).

Kiermaier 7% (#1)
Ender 2% (was 5% in 2018)
Pederson 1%
Acuna 0%
Markakis -1%
Ozuna -3%
Mancini -4%
Rosario -7%

I didn’t realize Rosario was so bad in the OF. Perhaps I need to rethink my desire to have him platooning with Duvall.

What do Brad Miller's defensive numbers look like, notably at 3b? He's been my top option to replace Camargo as the super sub/platoon partner with Riley for 3b/LF.

 

[Russ2dollas]

On Ozuna's defense, my understanding was that the defense was MUCH worse than they thought.
I recall it being a topic of conversation in spring training 1 for the DOBs of the world.

AA has been consistent in valuing defense.

That said, I think ATL has a really good defense. Riley is better than his metrics to my eye, but he's the clear dog on the team (taking Catcher defense out b/c that is complicated). Dansby, Ozzie, Freddie is pretty good. Pache and Acuna should be elite. So you'd think you could get away with a bad defender in LF.

It could also be that AA is projecting Ozuna to come down from a 180 wrc+ to 125 or so. If AA is looking at a year of 120-130 wrc+ and horrid defense, then maybe his offer is lower.

Long term roster construction could also be in play. Does AA want a full time DH? Maybe he wants the DH to be a position people rotate into for rest or if they have minor injuries. Maybe he thinks he can get one of these slugging 1B types every year for 5-10 million.

I don't know. I just want to see this team play 125+ games (i can't believe MLB won't try to cut the season) and on paper be a better team than last year. If we do not go into the year with one more significant addition I will be upset. Not that AA cares about my feelings. If we don't sign anyone I hope Waters is Acuna lite and playing from the jump (which I don't think is actually possible in real life).

 

[Southcack77]

but to tulu's point, if it's in all likelihood just *one* year where Ozuna may have to play the field, and the rest of the say 4-year deal he can DH, what's the big problem with that at this point? did AA get a much better look last year and see something we didn't know about his defense before?

Giving 4 years to someone that has only produced 1.5 seasons of impact hitting? That's my guess.

 

[Southcack77]

On Ozuna's defense, my understanding was that the defense was MUCH worse than they thought.
I recall it being a topic of conversation in spring training 1 for the DOBs of the world.

AA has been consistent in valuing defense.

That said, I think ATL has a really good defense. Riley is better than his metrics to my eye, but he's the clear dog on the team (taking Catcher defense out b/c that is complicated). Dansby, Ozzie, Freddie is pretty good. Pache and Acuna should be elite. So you'd think you could get away with a bad defender in LF.

It could also be that AA is projecting Ozuna to come down from a 180 wrc+ to 125 or so. If AA is looking at a year of 120-130 wrc+ and horrid defense, then maybe his offer is lower.

Long term roster construction could also be in play. Does AA want a full time DH? Maybe he wants the DH to be a position people rotate into for rest or if they have minor injuries. Maybe he thinks he can get one of these slugging 1B types every year for 5-10 million.

I don't know. I just want to see this team play 125+ games (i can't believe MLB won't try to cut the season) and on paper be a better team than last year. If we do not go into the year with one more significant addition I will be upset. Not that AA cares about my feelings. If we don't sign anyone I hope Waters is Acuna lite and playing from the jump (which I don't think is actually possible in real life).

The downside risk to Ozuna is a 110 wRC+ that is nearly unplayable in the field. That's his most usual offensive performance plus his current defense.

The expected metrics showed some of those seasons he deserved better though.

 

[clvclv]

On Ozuna's defense, my understanding was that the defense was MUCH worse than they thought.
I recall it being a topic of conversation in spring training 1 for the DOBs of the world.

AA has been consistent in valuing defense.

That said, I think ATL has a really good defense. Riley is better than his metrics to my eye, but he's the clear dog on the team (taking Catcher defense out b/c that is complicated). Dansby, Ozzie, Freddie is pretty good. Pache and Acuna should be elite. So you'd think you could get away with a bad defender in LF.

It could also be that AA is projecting Ozuna to come down from a 180 wrc+ to 125 or so. If AA is looking at a year of 120-130 wrc+ and horrid defense, then maybe his offer is lower.

Long term roster construction could also be in play. Does AA want a full time DH? Maybe he wants the DH to be a position people rotate into for rest or if they have minor injuries. Maybe he thinks he can get one of these slugging 1B types every year for 5-10 million.

I don't know. I just want to see this team play 125+ games (i can't believe MLB won't try to cut the season) and on paper be a better team than last year. If we do not go into the year with one more significant addition I will be upset. Not that AA cares about my feelings. If we don't sign anyone I hope Waters is Acuna lite and playing from the jump (which I don't think is actually possible in real life).

I think it really comes down to this.

As many have said before, Ozuna is not going to repeat his career-year 4 more times and AA saw first-hand that he just can't play even below-average defense anymore - whether Marcell thinks he can doesn't matter. Freeman moved to 3B a few years ago because we had a guy with a hot bat that couldn't play passable defense - even in LF. If Ozuna starts kicking it around like he's playing soccer out there (even if it's only for this season), are they going to ask Freddie to move back to 3B so Riley can shift to LF and they can keep Ozuna's bat in the lineup at 1B? If not, Camargo becomes the everyday 3B and Ozuna becomes the most-expensive PH in history.

I think the fact that he's still available tells us that AA has already answered the question we all keep asking - he's not going to play him in LF even if it's just for this year. There's not a better fit offensively (regardless of cost), and Alex is still shaking every tree trying to find ways to keep from having to watch Marcell play defense.

 

[DirkPiggler]

I think it really comes down to this.

As many have said before, Ozuna is not going to repeat his career-year 4 more times and AA saw first-hand that he just can't play even below-average defense anymore - whether Marcell thinks he can doesn't matter. Freeman moved to 3B a few years ago because we had a guy with a hot bat that couldn't play passable defense - even in LF. If Ozuna starts kicking it around like he's playing soccer out there (even if it's only for this season), are they going to ask Freddie to move back to 3B so Riley can shift to LF and they can keep Ozuna's bat in the lineup at 1B? If not, Camargo becomes the everyday 3B and Ozuna becomes the most-expensive PH in history.

I think the fact that he's still available tells us that AA has already answered the question we all keep asking - he's not going to play him in LF even if it's just for this year. There's not a better fit offensively (regardless of cost), and Alex is still shaking every tree trying to find ways to keep from having to watch Marcell play defense.

My guess is that there's a number where AA would accept Ozuna's defense for a year, but unless the DH is definitively out for this year there's little chance of both parties agreeing to a deal at those terms. It may end up being a waiting game until right before or even slightly after the start of spring training.

 

[50PoundHead]

What do Brad Miller's defensive numbers look like, notably at 3b? He's been my top option to replace Camargo as the super sub/platoon partner with Riley for 3b/LF.

Small sample size for all positions other than SS and 2B. He was pretty much exclusively a SS through 2016. Was pretty much a full-time 2B during his last year full year in Tampa (2017) and has been a true utility guy since. Can hit some, but looks like a guy who has to hit. Probably a decent option for a bat-first guy off the bench who can at least stand at a number of positions on the field without embarrassing himself. He's in that uncomfortable age group (early-30s) where one doesn't know if the last two seasons have been a mirage. One bizarre indicator is that he hit 12 HRs in 130 PAs for the Phillies in his half-season in Philadelphia in 2019 and they wouldn't fork over the $2 MM that he took to sign with the Cardinals.

 

[Enscheff]

I have a feeling this guy is a more likely target for the Markakis replacement than we all want to admit: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/01/pirates-trade-rumors-adam-frazier.html

His 2020 was sunk by a .246 BABIP, but if he regresses to something closer to .300 he should be the .270/.330/.400 bat he's always been. His normal platoon splits have him as a .775 OPS bat vs RHP.

He is owed $4.3M in 2021 and has 1 year of arb control remaining after this year.

I could definitely see him and Duvall flanking Acuna for 1-2 months to start the season. When Pache comes up to take over CF, Acuna slides to RF and Duvall/Frazier platoon in LF.

This is only if there is a DH filled primarily by someone like Ozuna. If there is no DH there will have to be a bigger bat at 3B or LF.

 

[bravesfanforlife88]

Im beginning to wonder if AA is thinking spring training will be delayed....based on that letter from the Grapefruit league requesting that be the case, that'd give teams extra time to round out rosters

 

[clvclv]

I have a feeling this guy is a more likely target for the Markakis replacement than we all want to admit: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/01/pirates-trade-rumors-adam-frazier.html

His 2020 was sunk by a .246 BABIP, but if he regresses to something closer to .300 he should be the .270/.330/.400 bat he's always been. His normal platoon splits have him as a .775 OPS bat vs RHP.

He is owed $4.3M in 2021 and has 1 year of arb control remaining after this year.

I could definitely see him and Duvall flanking Acuna for 1-2 months to start the season. When Pache comes up to take over CF, Acuna slides to RF and Duvall/Frazier platoon in LF.

This is only if there is a DH filled primarily by someone like Ozuna. If there is no DH there will have to be a bigger bat at 3B or LF.

Would be willing to give up more for Moran if we were trading with them personally. Certainly not ideal either, but if there is a DH you could shift Riley to LF and play Camargo at 3B against lefties if you had to.

 

[msstate7]

I have a feeling this guy is a more likely target for the Markakis replacement than we all want to admit: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/01/pirates-trade-rumors-adam-frazier.html

His 2020 was sunk by a .246 BABIP, but if he regresses to something closer to .300 he should be the .270/.330/.400 bat he's always been. His normal platoon splits have him as a .775 OPS bat vs RHP.

He is owed $4.3M in 2021 and has 1 year of arb control remaining after this year.

I could definitely see him and Duvall flanking Acuna for 1-2 months to start the season. When Pache comes up to take over CF, Acuna slides to RF and Duvall/Frazier platoon in LF.

This is only if there is a DH filled primarily by someone like Ozuna. If there is no DH there will have to be a bigger bat at 3B or LF.

He played at miss state, so he's a great option haha

I watched this guy a ton at state, and I've always liked his game.