Looking Ahead - The 2020 Offseason Thread

Carp said:
I might argue Acuna was slightly unlucky with a BABIP over 30 points below his career average. And that's a little scary for opposing teams considering he was pacing for his best season offensively. He might have surpassed Freeman as MVP over a full season if his BABIP reverted to career averages.
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His HR/FB rate was 32%. I suspect you are right about the BABIP regressing up, while the HR rate will likely regress down. The projections mostly agree as evidenced by projecting a higher BA and a lower SLG.

The really promising thing about Acuna’s 2020 is that huge jump in BB rate. If his increase in K rate was a result of him being more patient, then he might be in the process of turning into a truly elite approach at the plate to go along with his plus-plus power. When guys start to couple 40 HR power with a 15% BB rate, that’s when they start winning MVPs. Hopefully that dip in contact rate was just a blip.
 
Southcack77 said:
Depends on who was acquired, but I doubt that it's as simple as 3b for 3b.

Riley is more valuable than a half measure.
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I'm of the opinion, we would only trade for a new 3B if it was a significant upgrade, so I wasn't considering half measures. Also, I never said anything about it being a 3b for 3b... I just meant he's likely to be part of a [much bigger] deal for a major 3B
 
CyYoung31 said:
Yeah, I picked the Mets to win the division last year in a short season. They’re good, but they have to remain healthy. So do the Braves, for that matter. But the Braves have a little more ability to make trades if something goes awry. This race will probably come down to who can stay healthiest.

Not worried about the other teams in the division.
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Also have to note, the Mets lineup currently constructed is pretty horrible defensively. Outside of Lindor and McCann, everyone is pretty much average or below average at their position.
 
clvclv said:
The expected regression makes it fair to wonder if AA isn't better off focusing on making a flurry of bench signings this week to really build some depth rather than trying to pull off a big trade. Assuming the money's there (referencing the $13 million or so DOB seems to be convinced as being available), how much better would we all feel about things if you suddenly added Gardner, Shaw, and Flowers to the bench and Kela to the pen - especially if the DH is mysteriously added prior to the start of the season as some still expect?

A potential big trade that's still being talked about this close to the beginning of camp will probably be something he can go back to after setting up the rest of the roster.
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I guess signing Shaw and hoping for a rebound is reasonable (thought somewhat risky), but unless there's a DH, I don't see Gardner as helping that much. They need one more full-time bat. Again, going back to Shaw, maybe a Shaw/Riley platoon gets you part of the way there. I think this is where I think they fumbled the ball on Miller or Cabrera (especially Miller who can play some OF).
 
As things currently stand we will go with a platoon of Inciarte and Pache in center. Bench players will be Camargo, Panda, Brugman plus one of Jackson/Conteras as backup catcher.
 
nsacpi said:
As things currently stand we will go with a platoon of Inciarte and Pache in center. Bench players will be Camargo, Panda, Brugman plus one of Jackson/Conteras as backup catcher.
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Not seeing Brugman (or at least I hope I am not seeing Brugman come opening day), but other than that, you may be close. I'm guessing a fight to the death between Sandoval and Adrianze for the 25th spot. I hope Adrianze wins, if only for the reason that if Sandoval kills Adrianze, he'll probably eat him as well.
 
nsacpi said:
As things currently stand we will go with a platoon of Inciarte and Pache in center. Bench players will be Camargo, Panda, Brugman plus one of Jackson/Conteras as backup catcher.
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That is horrible. AA has to add some bench pieces before the season.
 
Heyward said:
That is horrible. AA has to add some bench pieces before the season.
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The point I'm making is that Brugman likely gets replaced by someone like Matt Joyce. As a reminder, Joyce was picked up for peanuts at the end of spring training 2019.

Under AA we've also picked up bench pieces like Duvall, Duda and Hamilton at the trade deadline. Why wait so long? By then we'll have an idea of whether Waters and Shewmake are ready. Whether Pache is ready.
 
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Will be interesting how the “old” new ball changes things.
I suspect our pitching will be significantly better while our offense regresses somewhat.
I agree I don’t worry about freeman, Acuna, and to some degree Albies but the rest are due some drop off especially TD and Dansby.
I feel like the juiced ball helped them the most but we shall see.
I don’t mind us leaving some money for a trade in season as long as we have a semi MLB level bench which we don’t as of now.
 
nsacpi said:
The point I'm making is that Brugman likely gets replaced by someone like Matt Joyce. As a reminder, Joyce was picked up for peanuts at the end of spring training 2019.

Under AA we've also picked up bench pieces like Duvall, Duda and Hamilton at the trade deadline. Why wait so long? By then we'll have an idea of whether Waters and Shewmake are ready. Whether Pache is ready.
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I will admit that this appears to be the best buyers market for trades and lower/mid signings in a good while. They are either really confident in some players in the minors (that we do not consider ready or impact players), or he is working on a big trade. The players have been there at good prices for the bench. AA is always big on leaving money for additions, but if they can be added now at great value...I’m not sure what the thought process is.

I feel like we need one more bullpen arm and at least one bench bat. It didn’t bother me to let Melacon sign...he kinda out pitched his ability and a a year older. Would like to see Greene (or someone like) signed.
 
It’s going to be close. An extra win could be the difference. I think this is like heywards first year where he was there from the jump and we won by one game.

I’d like us to improve and not just try and hang around till the deadline.
 
Deadening the ball should be interesting.

I’m all for it. I hate cheap hrs.

I think we have some pitchers who will benefit.

I don’t think it will hurt our big three and tds too much. They are all leaders in hard hit rate and barrels.

I think ff and ozuna Will not be 150 wrc plus but not bc of the ball.
 
Yeah Soroka already is amazing at preventing homers. Make the ball even less lively and he may never give up a homerun again, lol
 
nsacpi said:
The point I'm making is that Brugman likely gets replaced by someone like Matt Joyce. As a reminder, Joyce was picked up for peanuts at the end of spring training 2019.

Under AA we've also picked up bench pieces like Duvall, Duda and Hamilton at the trade deadline. Why wait so long? By then we'll have an idea of whether Waters and Shewmake are ready. Whether Pache is ready.
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Joyce signed with the Phillies FWIW.

Certainly reasonable to expect a couple of options might be cut loose during camp, but once you get past JBJ, Gardner, Reddick, Pillar, and Maybin, what's "available" for now is pretty thin.
 
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nsacpi said:
As things currently stand we will go with a platoon of Inciarte and Pache in center. Bench players will be Camargo, Panda, Brugman plus one of Jackson/Conteras as backup catcher.
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I've pretty much thought this all along, but the closer camp gets I'm starting to wonder...are they going to have Pache on the roster as a part-time player (particularly the weak-side of a platoon)?

If he's only going to play against lefties, you might as well keep him down for the first month and get the extra year back.
 
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