Looking Ahead - The 2020 Offseason Thread

jpx7 said:
I'm pretty sure that isn't true, for two reasons: (i) his defense isn't projected to be that bad, and (ii) there is a pretty substantial WAR penalty for playing as a DH. For an example of the latter point, from Fangraph's analysis of Ozuna's new contract:



Of course, that's projecting him to not be terrible in the field—which, at least by DRS, has never been the case, when he's been kept to LF (he was at 0 DRS last year, for reference). But he should never play anywhere else in the OF—speaking to the whole "we need more bench depth" point.
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Yeah..his projected WAR decline is based on the fact he isn't going be a god-mode hitter in 2021 which is pretty apparent. The DH penalty vs him playing everyday in Lf is probably a wash as far as WAR value goes. He could surprise and be a little better out there. He's not Matt Kemp bad by any means.
 
I think some people are underestimating how much the rotation improvements are. Everyone in the rotation is capable of going 6+ innings and then you figure out a way to get home to the 9th. Braves have some options who could be a sleeper like Arano and Edwards from the right side, both have had success.

Touki could be a long-term bullpen piece and we could bring back Shane Greene. Like others, i'm much more worried about the bench than the bullpen. Right now, we're probably looking at something like Camargo, Ender (if Pache starts), Contreras, Panda, Kipnis? Not ideal at all to be sure.
 
thewupk said:
Yeah..his projected WAR decline is based on the fact he isn't going be a god-mode hitter in 2021 which is pretty apparent. The DH penalty vs him playing everyday in Lf is probably a wash as far as WAR value goes. He could surprise and be a little better out there. He's not Matt Kemp bad by any means.
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I think DH vs LF is 10 runs (1 win).
 
Heyward said:
I think some people are underestimating how much the rotation improvements are. Everyone in the rotation is capable of going 6+ innings and then you figure out a way to get home to the 9th. Braves have some options who could be a sleeper like Arano and Edwards from the right side, both have had success.

Touki could be a long-term bullpen piece and we could bring back Shane Greene. Like others, i'm much more worried about the bench than the bullpen. Right now, we're probably looking at something like Camargo, Ender (if Pache starts), Contreras, Panda, Kipnis? Not ideal at all to be sure.
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I'd be more comfortable adding at least 1 leverage RH reliever, but quite possibly they could find someone to make up most of the difference there.

Touki hasn't really been great in any capacity, but has been a lot more effective first time through the order. I feel like asking him to focus on his best pitches and focus on being a reliever is probably long overdue if they're not going to trade him to a team that is good at fixing guys and has rotation innings to spare.
 
tululush said:
I wonder how close Ball is to bring MLB ready? Would he be an option, or would we move TDA to first and someone else to catcher?
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Did Ball make it to AA in 2019? I think so?

i think that is something they might consider. Might very well have a hot streak in him at least as happens sometimes.
 
This team can miss the playoffs this year and still be an elite team. I am not doubting we have built a winner for years. I am still excited to see the young guys hopefully take the next step and watch Acuna and Ozzie blossom into superstars more than they already are.

Reading about luxury tax. Who on the dodgers fit our needs that get them below 250 million. You can’t think they want to lose draft position over 5 million.
 
Southcack77 said:
Did Ball make it to AA in 2019? I think so?

i think that is something they might consider. Might very well have a hot streak in him at least as happens sometimes.
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No he did not. Curious to see where they start him in 2021. He was at the alternate site last season.

Speaking of the alternate site, I see Terone "Trey" Harris is an NRI, but he wasn't at the alternate site last season. He moved fast in 2019 and I thought based on that he would merit consideration on the 60-man last summer. As a 32nd round draft pick, he doesn't scream "ceiling," but he's hit some.
 
Southcack77 said:
I think DH vs LF is 10 runs (1 win).
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It is (unless there has been a change I'm not aware of). So Ozuna has to be better than -10 defensive runs to get a positive WAR result from him playing LF compared to DH. 145 innings in LF in 2020 isn't much data at all. DRS had him at 0 and UZR was as -0.9. UZR projected over 150 games was at -5.8. I suspect a full season of Ozuna in left likely is around -5 defensively. Not nearly as horrible as some have tried to make him out to be out there.
 
thewupk said:
It is (unless there has been a change I'm not aware of). So Ozuna has to be better than -10 defensive runs to get a positive WAR result from him playing LF compared to DH. 145 innings in LF in 2020 isn't much data at all. DRS had him at 0 and UZR was as -0.9. UZR projected over 150 games was at -5.8. I suspect a full season of Ozuna in left likely is around -5 defensively. Not nearly as horrible as some have tried to make him out to be out there.
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Regardless of how they project his WAR for 2021, it is half of what he did (extrapolated out) last year. So if you want to say the drop in WAR is completely from a drop in projected offensive output, so be it.
 
bravesfanMatt said:
This team can miss the playoffs this year and still be an elite team. I am not doubting we have built a winner for years. I am still excited to see the young guys hopefully take the next step and watch Acuna and Ozzie blossom into superstars more than they already are.

Reading about luxury tax. Who on the dodgers fit our needs that get them below 250 million. You can’t think they want to lose draft position over 5 million.
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Joe Kelly, makes 8.5 million this year. Dodgers have a ton of arms, but who knows.
 
skillet said:
Regardless of how they project his WAR for 2021, it is half of what he did (extrapolated out) last year. So if you want to say the drop in WAR is completely from a drop in projected offensive output, so be it.
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I don’t want to say it, it’s just a fact. But I think that fact is encouraging, to some extent, since it’s entirely possible Ozuna doesn’t regress as much as projected (maybe he just drops to demigod mode), in which case maybe we have a ~5 WAR LF in 2021.
 
jpx7 said:
I don’t want to say it, it’s just a fact. But I think that fact is encouraging, to some extent, since it’s entirely possible Ozuna doesn’t regress as much as projected (maybe he just drops to demigod mode), in which case maybe we have a ~5 WAR LF in 2021.
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Just as long as he takes us to Flavortown amirite?
 
Looks like our most likely bench, assuming Pache starts in center, is Adrianza, Kipnis, Camargo, Inciarte, and either Jackson or Contreras. Fangraphs pegs them for a combined 0.6 WAR. That's a pitiful bench. And if Inciarte starts in center, I reckon I could find my old glove in the attic and give it a go, hell can't be much worse than the options we currently have.
 
Brad Miller and Asdrubal Cabrera are both predicted to be worth 0.6 WAR themselves, but no we couldn't spend $2MM for either of those, we must shop the minor league scrap isle and buy crap.
 
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