Looking towards 2025

Strike3urout said:
Absolutely. I find it amusing that folks here are again dishing out big imaginary FA contracts. Have you not followed this team over the last few years (decades)?

There's probably going to be a few smaller deals to improve the team at the fringes, maybe one high risk / high reward move, and a couple of extensions we won't like. AA rarely makes sure-fire moves, where he goes out and buys security at a position. He's able to skew the risk/reward in the Braves' favor, but there is a risk nonetheless (not necessarily in terms of $, but injury or underperformance). For every Sale and Lopez, there is one Kelenic. And that is actually a really good ratio.
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Depending on the Fried situation, I could see him looking for someone on a "prove-it" deal (short-term with relatively high AAV), but as buck75 pointed out, there is a pretty good stash of pitchers in the Braves' high minors some of whom could slot in at the back of the rotation. I've been harping about the bench all season and I'm hoping that they make at least some minor improvements there. But I don't foresee any radical changes in approach.

The Soler deal remains a head-scratcher for me. The only way he's not in Atlanta next season is if they can send a large chunk of change along with him to another team. I'm pretty much old school on payroll management and if they are trying to stay under the luxury tax threshold, it's just not a good idea to be paying guys to play for other teams or take on heavy-laden dead contracts. Kelenic may turn out to be a valuable piece (although there's some question about that now), but the $26 MM of salary space that was eaten up to land him really limited their flexibility this year. Can't prove the negative, so maybe that matters and maybe it doesn't given the plethora of injuries.
 
50PoundHead said:
Depending on the Fried situation, I could see him looking for someone on a "prove-it" deal (short-term with relatively high AAV), but as buck75 pointed out, there is a pretty good stash of pitchers in the Braves' high minors some of whom could slot in at the back of the rotation. I've been harping about the bench all season and I'm hoping that they make at least some minor improvements there. But I don't foresee any radical changes in approach.

The Soler deal remains a head-scratcher for me. The only way he's not in Atlanta next season is if they can send a large chunk of change along with him to another team. I'm pretty much old school on payroll management and if they are trying to stay under the luxury tax threshold, it's just not a good idea to be paying guys to play for other teams or take on heavy-laden dead contracts. Kelenic may turn out to be a valuable piece (although there's some question about that now), but the $26 MM of salary space that was eaten up to land him really limited their flexibility this year. Can't prove the negative, so maybe that matters and maybe it doesn't given the plethora of injuries.
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I don't mind the Kelenic deal so much, even though I see little chance that it will turn into a net positive for the Braves. I like to judge the offseason as a whole, and AA got TWO Cy Young candidates for next to nothing. Tough to bat 1.000 when you make these types of moves. Soler, on the other hand, I never understood. The Braves already have a far better version of him in Ozuna. It was clear that it would be difficult for him to outhit his fielding (he's already at -7 defensive runs!). And he's on the books for 2 more years. That trade felt more like AA trying to relight past magic than him making the objectively best move.
 
I never got the Soler deal. I think many of use questioned it. If Soler was a rental, then I would be on board. but now the Braves are handcuffed with a bad deal for 2 years. I poked around some Giant blogs and a majority of the comments were that their GM was a genius for getting out of the entire deal.

AA would have been better and I think the team would have been better if they just stayed pat and did nothing.
 
The only sense the Soler deal makes is if they expect not to resign Ozuna after 2025. Soler is a capable hitter but his defense negates it.
 
Enscheff said:
I’m not sure where the rumor came from, but if the Braves are truly trying to get under the tax threshold I’d be prepared for a very meh offseason.

It’s likely we see Arcia at SS because he’s a cheap low end regular, Soler lumbering around LF because nobody else wants a bat-only guy with a .750 OPS for 2 years, Kelenic on the bench, and Laureano dumped because he’s too expensive to be a 5th OFer.

No idea who AA will target for the rotation, but I fully expect him to pull another Sale/Lopez rabbit out of his hat rather than give a FA premium cash.
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No one is currently slotted to receive a significant increase in arby and at least 1 will be released (looking at you, Ynoa). So arby consideration is mostly negligible. That leaves the options of Ozuna, TDA, Bummer, and Jackson to consider. TDA and Ozuna are safe. Bummer and Jackson are outtie 5000, and their buyouts are TBD on which year they are charged to (if there is any room left in this year's luxury tax).

If the 2025 tax numbers are correct, we are currently looking at going into the off-season 40-45ish million under the first luxury tax threshold, depending on how the Jackson/Bummer buyouts are dealt with. That seems like enough to be very involved in the FA market if we want to be, with room to spare for in-season trades. Of course that means we're shopping in the 2nd tier range or lower of FA's, but that is nothing different than any other year.

SPs like Flaherty, Bieber, Wacha, and Manaea should easily be on the table, as well as Scherzer (my betting favorite to replace Charlie). On the hitting side, we should be able to pull anyone not named Soto. Adames is everyone's favorite, but my preference is Kim. Brandon Lowe would be cool too as a super utility guy (lol, like Snit would actually use him)
 
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Also, I know people mention a Fried re-union on a short term pillow deal with an opt out if he can't find his market, but I find it very unlikely. AA typically fills that sort of roster hole very early in the off-season, so I don't expect we'll have a rotation spot available come February/March if Fried lasts that long on the market.
 
Right now we have Sale, Strider, Lopez, and SS as locks for the rotation. I know we have several guys that will be ready to step up from the minors but I don’t see AA letting that spot being a competition with the way the injury bug bit us this year. He will look hard at quality depth pieces. I expect a veteran brought in on a short term deal like Scherzer or Verlander. Kelenic is a head scratcher bc he plays good defense at all 3 spots but his bat isn’t starter quality. The big question will be Soler. I don’t see AA trading him but he needs to try. Him or Ozuna cant play defense so there is only room for one of them and that is Ozuna all day. Dump Soler and we have alot more money to spend.
 
Carp said:
No one is currently slotted to receive a significant increase in arby and at least 1 will be released (looking at you, Ynoa). So arby consideration is mostly negligible. That leaves the options of Ozuna, TDA, Bummer, and Jackson to consider. TDA and Ozuna are safe. Bummer and Jackson are outtie 5000, and their buyouts are TBD on which year they are charged to (if there is any room left in this year's luxury tax).

If the 2025 tax numbers are correct, we are currently looking at going into the off-season 40-45ish million under the first luxury tax threshold, depending on how the Jackson/Bummer buyouts are dealt with. That seems like enough to be very involved in the FA market if we want to be, with room to spare for in-season trades. Of course that means we're shopping in the 2nd tier range or lower of FA's, but that is nothing different than any other year.

SPs like Flaherty, Bieber, Wacha, and Manaea should easily be on the table, as well as Scherzer (my betting favorite to replace Charlie). On the hitting side, we should be able to pull anyone not named Soto. Adames is everyone's favorite, but my preference is Kim. Brandon Lowe would be cool too as a super utility guy (lol, like Snit would actually use him)
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This is completely, factually, mathematically, and utterly incorrect.

The current tax number is $197M before any options are picked up. Count on Ozuna and TDA being picked up, and probably Bummer. That’s another ~$30M. Kelenic will also get a couple million, but we won’t bother with that.

197 + 30 = 227.

AA likes to keep around $5M dry for the deadline.

227 + 5 = 232.

The first cap will be $242M.

242 - 233 = 10.

The Braves aren’t doing much with $10M other than fixing the bench and adding a BP arm. So unless AA goes over the caps again or dumps Soler and/or Murphy, there isn’t much money to do anything.
 
Obviously we all hope they will have a $275M+ payroll so they can do some things. Hopefully that rumor about resetting the penalties is false.
 
Enscheff said:
Like it or not, this roster has almost zero flexibility after all the extensions. Everyone loved them at the time, but this is the inevitability I warned about when they were being signed by everyone that stepped foot in Atlanta, and is why most teams don’t lock in a “core” for a decade.
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They have plenty of flexibility. It's not like all these players have no trade clauses. It would probably look bad reading guys who signed extensions with us but we could do it. In fact I think they should trade Murphy. He missed half the year and honestly we were just fine at Catcher. We got a much cheaper option in Baldwin. Murphy could still get prospects in return after a down year following two 5 WAR seasons. Another down year and we would be lucky to give him away without eating any money.

The team is inflexible because they have so many good players locked up. That's not a bad thing. What we need isn't flexibility it's good cheap players so we can afford the expensive ones. We go into the off-season needing a SS and LF. Other teams go into off-season needing 3 SP, 2B, CF, and a closer and are happy if they fill half of them.
 
I think the off-season will consist of bringing in one veteran SP they don't expect to pitch the whole season. Bieber/Scherzer/Verlander is who I have in mind. Bieber will be back around ASB/August next year from TJS. Verlander and Scherzer are old as dirt. I imagine we might continue the 6 man rotation to start next year which might be something they would like. Theoretically keeps them healthy longer. We are also a team expected to contend. Bieber shouldn't take a ton considering he will likely pitch 1/3rd of the regular season but he might also take a 2 year deal heavily back loaded to year 2 so he can get a full year in before cashing in in free agency. Something like 2 years 25 million. 5 million year 1 and 20 million year 2.
 
I think the off-season goal is going to be focused on depth. We need an IF and OF for the bench and another IF and OF to stash in AAA.

Guys like Geraldo Perdomo or Willie Castro would be a good bench piece to battle for playing time at SS if they’re made available.
 
I agree with Chico about depth. This year exposed a huge weakness bc of the injuries. Losing Fried will be a huge blow to the rotation bc nobody expected Sale to be healthy and pitch like he has. Him doing it 2 years in a row? I hope so. I think an innings eater will be brought in along with alot of quality depth and hopefully a LF upgrade while trading Soler and maybe Murphy.
 
cajunrevenge said:
They have plenty of flexibility. It's not like all these players have no trade clauses. It would probably look bad reading guys who signed extensions with us but we could do it. In fact I think they should trade Murphy. He missed half the year and honestly we were just fine at Catcher. We got a much cheaper option in Baldwin. Murphy could still get prospects in return after a down year following two 5 WAR seasons. Another down year and we would be lucky to give him away without eating any money.

The team is inflexible because they have so many good players locked up. That's not a bad thing. What we need isn't flexibility it's good cheap players so we can afford the expensive ones. We go into the off-season needing a SS and LF. Other teams go into off-season needing 3 SP, 2B, CF, and a closer and are happy if they fill half of them.
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Any locked up player they want to trade will not have positive trade value...or they would not want to trade them away. We are already seeing that with Olson and Murphy. So yes, the roster is inflexible in the sense that dumping declining players becomes impossible without attaching even more resources to them. And that defeats the whole point of signing them to a below market deal in the first place.

Having said that, I agree with unloading Murphy and going with a Baldwin/TDA platoon. I would also try to unload Soler so the roster doesn't have 2 DHs. How will that be achieved? No idea, but AA seems to be able to do things like trade the extra overpaid DH for an overpaid bench SS, so at least the overpaid player is at a position of need on the roster.

Then I would probably go with Kelenic/Laureano in LF, and bring in legit bench options for SS and OF. Do whatever BP arms they like, and the annual pulling a SP out of a hat trick.

That's assuming they want to reset the tax penalties and have very little money to spend. If they are going with another $275M payroll the options are nearly endless.
 
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Something’s got to give with the DH log jam we have created. Soler and Ozuna should both be full time DH and I expect Acuna will need plenty of rest next year playing the outfield. Trading Ozuna seems like the simplest way of clearing that log jam.
 
I'm not sure why a contending team would trade away a .950 OPS DH in favor of a .750 OPS DH.

AA needs to do whatever it takes to unload as much of Soler's deal as possible.
 
Enscheff said:
I'm not sure why a contending team would trade away a .950 OPS DH in favor of a .750 OPS DH.

AA needs to do whatever it takes to unload as much of Soler's deal as possible.
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I dunno, we have a huge hole in LF potentially. I'd rather have Soler than Kelenic at this point. Or at least move Kelenic to backup.
 
Soler should have never been traded for.. it will go down as one of AA dumber moves (nothing will top the WC plus 30 more prospects for an older catcher who hates the hot weather trade)

But I think AA is just going to ride out Soler in LF next year in hopes he can hit just enough to cover his defense and to prove he can be a replacement for Ozuna after next season.
 
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