Looking towards 2025

Donald

1:42 Do you think braves would be interested in bringing in Jordan. Montgomery?

Steve Adams

1:43 I don't think it's a great fit. They need stability and their luxury-tax ledger is a mess. Adding Monty's $22.5MM would really gum things up. I suppose it depends how much the D-backs are willing to eat, but there are cleaner and easier fits than just taking on an underwater SP contract

This is the narrative I’m taking about. While don’t disagree that Monty is an imperfect fit, but how is the payroll “a mess”? They are way under their 2024 payroll. They are under even the lowest threshold. They are waaaaay under the 3rd threshold that seemed to be the limit last year.

So how is that “a mess”? Where is this narrative coming from?
 
Alex Anthopoulos

2:11 I can't make up my mind if these recent moves to save money are towards to a) Being aggressive in free agency or B) Reset the CBT line?

Steve Adams

2:12 The largest deals Alex Anthopoulos has ever given to a free agent since taking over the Braves' front office:

1) Marcell Ozuna (four years, $65MM)

2) Will Smith (three years, $40MM)

3) Reynaldo Lopez (three years, $30MM)

4) Josh Donaldson (one year, $23MM)

They already have like $218MMish in luxury obligations. They'd be a third-time payor in 2025.

I do not expect them to make a big free agent move.

What are the escalating penalties for being a 3rd time payor?
 
Rates 50% / 62% / 95% / 110% for third consecutive season. What I think might happen is they are willing to go over the threshold but they wont spend money just to spend it. If we arent willing to overpay for some players we might be left hanging after the best options are gone and they figure its best to bite the bullet this year. Willy Adames is going to get so overpaid because he is the only perceived good option at SS with HSK having major should surgery.
 
2:32
Kip: Is ATL kind of screwed? They have at least three holes to fill (LF/SP/RP) and maybe more if you don’t think Ozzie will bounce back (second basemen age horribly) or if Arcia doesn’t improve. They have money to spend but it’s not a huge amount if they want to avoid penalties (around $30 million). Their farm system isn’t particularly deep and many of their best prospects project to be back end starters or relief pitchers.
2:33
Ben Clemens: the Braves had a truly ridiculous number of injuries last year, including the reigning MVP and Cy Young favorite, not to mention several other All Stars. BP’s injury tracker has them down for 13 missing WAR last year, vs. a league average of around 5

I've never seen that injury tracker before, but losing 8 wins over MLB average due to injury seems about right. I know this isn't exactly how WAR works, but give the Braves average injury luck and those missing 8 wins bring them from 89 to 95+ wins and perhaps the division title.
 
I know Albies doesn't come without risk given his plate discipline issues, but I don't see reason why people think he won't bounce back. If anything, the only concern should be durability, as he has missed 60+ games in 2 of the last 3 seasons. But those were really flukey injuries. It's not like they were soft tissue injuries that are reoccurring. He broke bones each time he got hurt.
 
The thing that baffles me the most is the narrative that AA wants to dip under the luxury tax cap. It seems like folks treat it as a given despite zero evidence suggesting AA isn't about to run another $275M+ payroll.

Perhaps I just have homer blinders on and can't see what's obvious to non-homers?
 
Enscheff said:
The thing that baffles me the most is the narrative that AA wants to dip under the luxury tax cap. It seems like folks treat it as a given despite zero evidence suggesting AA isn't about to run another $275M+ payroll.

Perhaps I just have homer blinders on and can't see what's obvious to non-homers?
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I'm probably somewhere in the middle. I dont think he'll go bat**** crazy like the Dodgers did last winter but it's pretty clear he made those money saving moves with something in mind. He'll add, how much is tbd. And how much he is at or below the luxury tax, well i guess we'll see when it all unfolds.
 
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Enscheff said:
The thing that baffles me the most is the narrative that AA wants to dip under the luxury tax cap. It seems like folks treat it as a given despite zero evidence suggesting AA isn't about to run another $275M+ payroll.

Perhaps I just have homer blinders on and can't see what's obvious to non-homers?
Click to expand...

It's arguable if there is even that much of a benefit to dip under the luxury tax to make it even worth it. Especially for a team squarely in their contention window.

On the other hand, the team as constructed without any further moves has a high probability to make the playoffs. Especially when considering much of the league is either cutting spending or standing pat due to tv revenue uncertainty.
 
Didn't see it mentioned in the thread, but the Braves signed INF Jose Devers (cousin of Rafael Devers) to a minor league contract last Saturday. 25 years old with a bit of major league experience with the Marlins. Has had injury issues and hasn't performed that well when healthy, but a more interesting option than the 30+ year olds they have had populate the Gwinnett roster the past few years.
 
CyYoung31 said:
Why would a 2B age horribly compared any other position? That’s the first time I’m seeing that notion.
Click to expand...

Over the last 5-10 seasons guys have been placed at 2B who have limited range, mainly because they can be covered by the shift. Those types of unathletic players tend to age poorly, similarly to guys who play 1B.

However, Albies is not that type of unathletic player, and he plays 2B due to arm strength. IMO, Albies is much more likely to age poorly due to his horrid approach at the plate, and that has nothing to do with athleticism or the fact he plays 2B.
 
Enscheff said:
Over the last 5-10 seasons guys have been placed at 2B who have limited range, mainly because they can be covered by the shift. Those types of unathletic players tend to age poorly, similarly to guys who play 1B.

However, Albies is not that type of unathletic player, and he plays 2B due to arm strength. IMO, Albies is much more likely to age poorly due to his horrid approach at the plate, and that has nothing to do with athleticism or the fact he plays 2B.
Click to expand...

Now that I agree with.
 
Albies arm strength would be fine for anywhere other than third except for the fact he side arm lollipops everything now.

He doesn't come over the top at all (except when its bang bang) because he feels its a faster release vs velocity.
 
His loopy side arm action would never play at SS. Statcast has arm strength metrics, and it shows just how bad it is. It's noticeable even on TV when Whit was turning double plays vs when Albies was doing it.
 
Enscheff said:
His loopy side arm action would never play at SS. Statcast has arm strength metrics, and it shows just how bad it is. It's noticeable even on TV when Whit was turning double plays vs when Albies was doing it.
Click to expand...

He didn't always throw that way in the minors when he played SS. Its developed since he moved to 2nd.
 
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