Max Fried threw sinkers last night!

[Enscheff]

I didn't want to say anything earlier in the season because I wasn't sure if the data was reliable, but last night Max Fried was definitely throwing SIs. Over the last week or so I have been making comments about being hesitant to trade Fried to upgrade 3B/BP, and this is why. Now that I'm almost positive he is fine tuning a SI, I don't think I would be comfortable trading him under almost any realistic scenario at the deadline.

The SI in question:

92.6 mph (Grade 55), 7.8" H-Mov (Grade 45), 5.2" VMov (Grade 50+)

This is a legit Grade 55 SI...an above average MLB pitch!

This was the break down of Fried's previous arsenal:

Fried: 40 FA, 60 CU, 55 CH

Fried's FA verges on unusable due to a very low spin rate that results in a horribly flat pitch. I would like to see him switch to a SI instead, which I think could be an above average pitch. As is, he is a junk-baller #5 or swing-man if his control stays below average. If he picks up a grade 55 SI and refines his command to average, he can be a legit #3.

Fried pairs average velocity with poor movement. His FA is very straight, and is not a good pitch overall. He generates the least rise of all FAs on the team, and he should really abandon that pitch in favor of a two-seamer or sinker.

What pitchers don't want to do is fall in that range 7-8 inches of rise. That is a "straight" fastball, and is precisely where Fried falls. I think if Fried changed to a SI the low spin would give him 4-5" of rise, which would be plus movement for a SI. If I were a rival team, I would be trying to buy low on him the moment the Braves demote him to the BP, then have him make that change.

It looks like the new AA FO may have seen the data and are attempting to salvage Fried. There is some weirdness with the data (different pitch tracking data confuses some of his FAs with SIs right now) as Fried transitions from FA to SI, but Fried with a 55 SI, 60 CU, and 55 CH could be a successful SP if he gets the control figured out...and the poor control might be due in part to learning the SI on the job.

 

[bravesfanMatt]

Thethe will be in his bunk. Please give him some privacy.

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

Interesting, I'd prefer he go to AAA then to fine tune that pitch, and then after a while of doing so consistently, let's see what we have.

 

[thethe]

Fried has always generated a high percentage of GB's in his career. While the data presented above is encouraging I find it hard to believe those GB's could be generated at those levels without throwing a 2 seamer.

 

[Enscheff]

Fried has always generated a high percentage of GB's in his career. While the data presented above is encouraging I find it hard to believe those GB's could be generated at those levels without throwing a 2 seamer.

It was either a FA that didn't rise, or a SI that didn't sink. Call it whatever you want, believe whatever you want, but everyone (including Fried) referred to it as a 4-seamer.

The point is that now he's throwing a SI that actually sinks, and it is wonderful news.

 

[thethe]

It was either a FA that didn't rise, or a SI that didn't sink. Call it whatever you want, believe whatever you want, but everyone (including Fried) referred to it as a 4-seamer.

The point is that now he's throwing a SI that actually sinks, and it is wonderful news.

I get it and I'm not saying that you are making up these points.

What I'd like to know and I'm sure you have that data is the rate at which various pitches generate GB's based on the grades you are putting on them. Is it possible to have such high GB rates without throwing an effective 2 seamer?

 

[Enscheff]

I get it and I'm not saying that you are making up these points.

What I'd like to know and I'm sure you have that data is the rate at which various pitches generate GB's based on the grades you are putting on them. Is it possible to have such high GB rates without throwing an effective 2 seamer?

Well, look at Newk's GB rates vs Folty's, almost entirely due to Newk's superior breaking ball. Newk hasn't thrown a single SI at the MLB level.

 

[thethe]

Well, look at Newk's GB rates vs Folty's, almost entirely due to Newk's superior breaking ball. Newk hasn't thrown a single SI at the MLB level.

Is there data that shows the contact profile against specific pitches?

 

[GovClintonTyree]

I didn't want to say anything earlier in the season because I wasn't sure if the data was reliable, but last night Max Fried was definitely throwing SIs. Over the last week or so I have been making comments about being hesitant to trade Fried to upgrade 3B/BP, and this is why. Now that I'm almost positive he is fine tuning a SI, I don't think I would be comfortable trading him under almost any realistic scenario at the deadline.

The SI in question:

92.6 mph (Grade 55), 7.8" H-Mov (Grade 45), 5.2" VMov (Grade 50+)

This is a legit Grade 55 SI...an above average MLB pitch!

This was the break down of Fried's previous arsenal:







It looks like the new AA FO may have seen the data and are attempting to salvage Fried. There is some weirdness with the data (different pitch tracking data confuses some of his FAs with SIs right now) as Fried transitions from FA to SI, but Fried with a 55 SI, 60 CU, and 55 CH could be a successful SP if he gets the control figured out...and the poor control might be due in part to learning the SI on the job.

I agree with your premise and agree it's exciting, but I doubt his control issue is learning related. I think he's just a bit wild.

I do like pairing the SI with that Rolls Royce of a CU, though.

 

[Southcack77]

I agree with your premise and agree it's exciting, but I doubt his control issue is learning related. I think he's just a bit wild.

I do like pairing the SI with that Rolls Royce of a CU, though.

He's alternated between 3-4 BB/9 for much of his career. Course he's been young and then had surgery and then sort of promoted quickly and now maybe he's working on a new pitch.

It could get better. Good news he's trying to improve the arsenal.

I wish I had a sense of how hard it is to make these pitches. Is it easier for a guy like Fried who has one plus plus breaking pitch to figure out a sinker? I have no idea.

Seems like they all have to figure out change ups and most improve that pretty rapidly.

 

[Eyeman]

Thanks as always for all these stats Enscheff. Pretty cool that a pitcher can have a fastball that works in the minors but then the stats show it won't work in the majors, and it doesn't. Then if you can tweak/fix it, even better.

Any stats on Wisler improving his fastball, or is he just getting lucky, or controlling his slider better? I was ready to give up on Wisler going into this season, not so sure now, although I'd still like to see him pitch better then use him if needed in a trade.

 

[UNCBlue012]

This is the best news I could have received today!

 

[Enscheff]

This SI vanished almost as quickly as it appeared, but it made a triumphant return in his last start and now it looks like the SI is back, much to my delight. He threw it 13 times and it breaks down as...

SI: Velo = 92.7 mph (Grade 55), X-Mov = 7.4" (Grade 41), V-Mov = (Grade 59)

This is the SI I've been waiting for Fried to start throwing. It gives him a grade 55/60 heater to lean on, and allows him to spot the flat 4 seamer more sparingly.

We saw Fried add a SL early in the year:

We have seen Fried debut a new pitch in mid-80s that looks good. Turns out it's a slider, and he threw it twice last night. Let's see how good of a pitch that thing is...

First, let's do a sanity check on the other stuff he threw last night, the FA and CU.

FA: Velo = 95.0 mph (Grade 61.8), X-Mov = -1.1" (Grade 27.1), Z-Mov = 7.2" (Grade 33.9)

This is still the same flat and straight FA with plus velocity. The lack of movement on this pitch will always make it less effective than the velocity suggests.

CU: Velo = 76.3 mph (Grade 41.7), X-Mov = -4.5" (Grade 50.9), Z-Mov = -13.8" (Grade Broken)

Yup, the downer CU somehow got even better. Maybe he just snapped off 3 doozies last night, but this is quite possibly the premier 12-6 CU in the game today. It is Zito-like...or better.

SL: Velo = 83.4 mph (Grade 44.9), X-Mov = -8.6" (Grade 80), Z-Mov = -3.7" (Grade 74.8)

Look...he only threw 2 of them, but this movement data is nasty, and there's no other way to describe this Ohtani-like SL. The limited data suggests Fried just added another elite breaking pitch with a completely different shape than his CU.

My knock on Fried has always been the lack of movement on his FA, but with what appear to be 2 elite breaking pitches, it may not matter. Keep in mind Fried also has an above average CH in his pocket that moves exactly opposite to his SL.

Suddenly Fried is a guy with 2 elite breaking balls, an above average CH, and a ~40 FA that grades out as barely usable...but it doesn't matter because the breaking stuff is sooooo (yes, 5 o's) good.

Fried was the guy I most wanted to see data on, and even though he still hasn't added the SI, it may not matter. These breaking balls plus the presence of a good CH means he is a clear 2-3 option if the control plays (that's 3-4 fWAR). If he adds the 50/60 SI I think he can, and the control plays...he's the best SP in the organization.

Fried is not a guy who should be throwing mop up innings in blowout losses, or traded for MadBum...that's for sure. The possibility of these types of repertoire tweaks is why I've always been so hesitant to include Fried in trades.

This gives Fried a good fastball to go with his wipe out breaking stuff, a decent change, and average or better control. The Braves turned Fried from a Mike Montgomery into a legit #2/3 SP by teaching him 2 new pitches. This is the type of pitcher development based on analytics I love to see.

 

[nsacpi]

impressive that he was able to add to his repertoire mid season

 

[Enscheff]

impressive that he was able to add to his repertoire mid season

I imagine he's been toying with the SI for a year or more, but he just hasn't used it in games yet for some reason. It is clearly his best fastball, and I hope to see it used more and more.

Much of Julio's success is due to the increased use of his SI (which I identified as his best heater a long time ago), so maybe that is somehow related to Fried using his.

 

[nsacpi]

I imagine he's been toying with the SI for a year or more, but he just hasn't used it in games yet for some reason. It is clearly his best fastball, and I hope to see it used more and more.

Much of Julio's success is due to the increased use of his SI (which I identified as his best heater a long time ago), so maybe that is somehow related to Fried using his.

Is the SI the pitch that generally tunnels best with a change?

 

[Hudson2]

Doesn’t DK throw a good SI? If so then he could have been working with him on it since they are both lefties.

 

[Snowman]

I'm repeating myself, but I believe if Fried can find a decent FB (or something FB-like) to pair with that change, the change can become his second best pitch. I've never been a believer in him, but also always believed he was also just one pitch addition from changing my mind. Hopefully this will be that.

 

[Eyeman]

Thanks Enscheff. I somehow missed this 2018 thread. I remember you wanting him to throw a SI, then I saw him throwing one in his last start. I was hoping you'd give us the stats on how it looked, didn't realize you already had.

Do you still feel the SI rates as a 55 and the CU a 60?

When Fried does not have good fastball control seems more like a back end of rotation starter to me. I'd actually like to see him throw more sliders.

So it looks like AA, etc is really relying on data. This makes me confident that they will figure out what Wright and Anderson need to throw. Now if there were just some stat data that would help them fix Newcombs control..lol.

 

[Enscheff]

Fried's CU is probably better than a 60 with it's elite downward movement. It's quite possibly the best 12-6 CU in the game, whether or not that makes it a 60 or 70 or 80 overall is open for debate.

What's not open for debate is that's it's a very good pitch.