Grading the Braves' Four-seam Fastballs (FA)

E

Enscheff

Well-known member
Four-seam Fastballs (FA)

Taking all the data for all FAs thrown in 2017 produces the following grades (each grade is a standard deviation away from the mean):

vFA = velocity

X = horizontal movement

Z = vertical movement

Grade vFA X Z

80 99.5 10.5 12.5

70 97.5 8.7 11.4

60 95.4 6.9 10.2

50 93.3 5.2 9.1

40 91.2 3.4 7.9

30 89.1 1.6 6.8

20 87.0 0 5.6

Adding a 1 MPH boost to all LHers yields the following grades for all Braves pitchers:

2lMqTXM.jpg


Notes on the FAs that matter:

Viz and Gohara undoubtedly have the best FAs on the team. Both pair plus-plus velocity with average or better movement to form a pitch that is nearly elite (grade ~75 overall).

The fact Gohara can maintain that FA over 80+ pitches is special. No other SP in the game not named Syndergaard can do it. His FA is the cream of the crop as far as LHed SPs are concerned.

Folty and Newk both pair plus velocity with plus movement, forming pitches that are easily grade 65 overall. Both are likely into their decline phase for their velocity, but those pitches were both weapons in 2017.

Fried pairs average velocity with poor movement. His FA is very straight, and is not a good pitch overall. He generates the least rise of all FAs on the team, and he should really abandon that pitch in favor of a two-seamer or sinker.

Teheran's FA is worse than I thought. He should also abandon this pitch.

Sims...same boat as Teheran.
 
Curveballs (CU)

Taking all the data for all CUs thrown in 2017 produces the following grades (each grade is a standard deviation away from the mean):

vCU = velocity
X = horizontal movement
Z = vertical movement

Grade vCU X Z
80 87.3 9.6 -11.0
70 84.5 7.8 -8.5
60 81.6 6.1 -6.4
50 78.7 4.3 -4.4
40 75.8 2.6 -2.3
30 73.1 0.8 -0.3
20 70.2 0.0 0.0

Adding a 1 MPH boost to all LHers yields the following grades for all Braves pitchers:

xGYuWJh.jpg


Notes on the CUs that matter:

CU is the hardest pitch to grade overall. There are excellent ones like Kimbrel's and McCullers' that have elite velocity and average movement, and there are great ones like Bauer's and Giolito's with average velocity and elite vertical break.

The best on the Braves roster clearly belong to Newcomb and Fried. Depending on if velocity or vertical movement is preferred, either could be argued to have the best one on the roster.

Newcomb pairs average velocity with plus vertical drop to form a plus pitch overall (60+ grade).

Fried pairs below average velocity with even more vertical drop than Newk to also form a 60+ grade pitch.

There isn't much else to get excited about, but it is interesting to see Luke Jackson, Ian Krol and Jim Johnson show above average curves.

Wisler has a very average CU.

Sims shows a very interesting CU due to the fact that it has plus-plus sweeping action.

Teheran's CU disappoints overall, but does have plus horizontal movement.
 
Sliders (SL)

Taking all the data for all SLs thrown in 2017 produces the following grades (each grade is a standard deviation away from the mean):

vSL = velocity
X = horizontal movement
Z = vertical movement

Grade vSL X Z
80 91.5 8.1 -5
70 89.2 6.3 -2.6
60 86.9 4.4 -0.5
50 84.6 2.5 1.6
40 82.3 0.6 3.6
30 79.9 0 5.7
20 77.7 0 7

Adding a 1 MPH boost to all LHers yields the following grades for all Braves pitchers:

yiwqjgG.jpg


Notes on the SLs that matter:

The most important aspect of a SL is it horizontal movement to the glove side.

Newcomb has a great slider. Below average velocity, but more than made up for by plus-plus break. This is a grade 70+ pitch.

Wisler also shows a good SL. Below average velocity, but makes up for it with plus break.

Freeman, Jackson, Sims, Brothers and Folty all show average SLs with various good qualities.

Then we get to Gohara, who's SL shows barely average here. Average velocity with below average glove side movement. Anyone who has watched Gohara knows he throws 2 different SLs: one that's slower (8-832 MPH) with more of a sweeping CU action, and one that is faster (85-86 MPH) with more of a typical SL action. All pitching data I can find fails to differentiate between these 2 pitches, and the average of the 2 is not a good pitch despite each individual pitch perhaps being above average.

Again, disappointed by Teheran's SL.
 
Sinkers (SI)

Taking all the data for all SIs thrown in 2017 produces the following grades (each grade is a standard deviation away from the mean):

vSI = velocity
X = horizontal movement
Z = vertical movement

Grade vSI X Z
80 98 12 -0.5
70 95.5 10.8 1.7
60 94.3 9.6 3.6
50 92.4 8.5 5.5
40 90.5 7.3 7.5
30 88.5 6.1 9.4
20 86.7 4.9 11

Adding a 1 MPH boost to all LHers yields the following grades for all Braves pitchers:

Rcb5Sb3.jpg


Notes on the SIs that matter:

Freeman and Folty with plus or better SIs. Both pair plus-plus velocity with movement that is more arm side run than sink.

Krol with a lesser version of the pitch Freeman throws.

Finally, an above average pitch from Teheran! Slightly below average velocity paired with above average movement makes it an above average pitch overall.

JJ with yet another average pitch in his arsenal.

Sims with a SI that is much better than his FA. His SI is average, his FA is below average...he needs to rely on the SI.

This is the pitch I would like to see Fried pick up. His low spin rate should produce a SI with 55 grade velocity, 50 grade X, and 55 grade Z (sink). That would likely result in an above average SI (grade 55+), and could allow him to stay in the rotation. He simply isn't going to be able to to rely on his poor FA.
 
Change-ups (CH)

Taking all the data for all CHs thrown in 2017 produces the following grades (each grade is a standard deviation away from the mean):

vDelta = difference in velocity between the CH and the pitcher's fastest fastball type (FA or SI)
X = horizontal movement
Z = vertical movement

Grade vDelta X Z
80 14.0 11.9 -2.5
70 11.9 10.5 -0.1
60 9.8 9.1 2.5
50 7.7 7.7 4.9
40 5.7 6.3 7.4
30 3.6 4.9 9.8
20 1.4 3.5 12.0

There is no boost to LHers to get the following grades for all Braves pitchers:

rToydXM.jpg


Notes on the CHs that matter:

Holy crap Luke Jackson! Oh wait, he only threw 1 CH in 2017. Such is the problem with not being able to set a pitch count limit. Same deal with Brothers.

JoRam with a legit plus CH that features excellent arm side run.

Sims with the plus CH I have been talking about. Everything about it is above average to plus. This is a legit grade 60+ pitch, and easily his best. I never heard anything about it when he was a prospect.

Viz has an above average CH. Maybe he should consider throwing it more?

Fried has a CH that I completely whiffed on before doing this study. Above average in all aspects makes it a definite above average offering.

Folty and Newk both have average CHs. Good news for Newk's chances at sticking in the rotation.

Finally, Teheran shows an average pitch.

Gohara's CH is below average due to terrible sinking action, but he it's usable and he's young enough to refine it. I'd like to see him work exclusively on that pitch in AAA next year.

JJ with yet another usable pitch.
 
Arsenals for Braves Pitchers

Teheran: 40 FA, 55 SI, 40 CU, 45 SL, 50 CH

An above average SI, average CH and a usable SL makes Teheran a #4 if he has average or worse command. If he gets back to plus command as he has shown in previous years, he can bounce back to being a #3.

Folty: 65 FA, 60 SI, 40 CU, 45/50 SL, 50 CH

Folty has good stuff, but not as good as I used to think. Two plus fastballs, a usable SL and an average CH should make him a #3 if he has average or worse command. He might never "figure it out" and will be what I call a "stuff #4".

Newcomb: 65/70 FA, 60 CU, 70 SL, 50 CH

Newk has TOR stuff. Period. If he continues to post a BB/9 of 5+ he is the most frustrating "stuff #4" in the game. If he improves to Gio-level control (~3.5 BB/9) he is a TOR stud. My money is on him never getting the BBs under control, unfortunately.

Gohara: 75 FA, 50 SL, 45 CH

Gohara is a beast with a closer's FA. The SL grade is misleading due to the fact it is the average of 2 different pitches. The CH is usable. Gohara is already a 2-pitch #3 SP, and as he refines his command and CH he will grow into a TOR stud.

Fried: 40 FA, 60 CU, 55 CH

Fried's FA verges on unusable due to a very low spin rate that results in a horribly flat pitch. I would like to see him switch to a SI instead, which I think could be an above average pitch. As is, he is a junk-baller #5 or swing-man if his control stays below average. If he picks up a grade 55 SI and refines his command to average, he can be a legit #3.

Sims: 40 FA, 50 SI, 45/50 CU, 40 SL, 60 CH

Sims needs to ditch the FA and stick with the SI. An average SI along with a plus CH and a usable CU could make Sims a #4 if he has below average command. If he improves his command he could be better.

Viz: 75 FA, 45 CU, 55 CH

Viz has a monster FA and a usable CU. I would like to see him show the CH a little more to LHers.
 
Thanks Enscheff. Which fastball does Wisler throw the most and where do they rank please? For sure you can see those stats in action. Folty seems to have great stuff, but they hit it when his command is off. They kill Teheran and Wisler when their control is off.
 
This is great thanks for the work- I have a couple questions about some of what you found.

1. For Fried’s FA you cite his low spin rate as a negative. I was under the impression that a pitcher either wants low OR high spin rate, and averse is worse. Or am I misinterpreting something?

2.Newks slider that’s surprising, isn’t this the pitch that was referenced by many posters, I think including you, as something needing to be scrapped during the season?
 
Oklahomabrave said:
This is great thanks for the work- I have a couple questions about some of what you found.

1. For Fried’s FA you cite his low spin rate as a negative. I was under the impression that a pitcher either wants low OR high spin rate, and averse is worse. Or am I misinterpreting something?

2.Newks slider that’s surprising, isn’t this the pitch that was referenced by many posters, I think including you, as something needing to be scrapped during the season?
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Pitchers typically want high spin rates for FAs that results in 9+ inches of rise. They typically want low spin rates for SIs that result in 6 or less inches of rise (which is sink, less rise is actually more sink). They can also create sink by lowering their arm angle to produce less backspin, which is why sidearmers have elite sink.

What pitchers don't want to do is fall in that range 7-8 inches of rise. That is a "straight" fastball, and is precisely where Fried falls. I think if Fried changed to a SI the low spin would give him 4-5" of rise, which would be plus movement for a SI. If I were a rival team, I would be trying to buy low on him the moment the Braves demote him to the BP, then have him make that change.

I distinctly remember suggesting Newk ditch one of the breaking balls because I was of the opinion he could more easily work on his control while only worrying about 1 breaking ball. Both his CU and SL are good, but it looks like the SL is better. Pitchers who rely on FAs up in the zone typically pair that with a CU because those 2 pitches tunnel together very well.

The popularity of the FA/CU pairing is likely why Fried sticks with the FA even though it's a bad pitch for him.
 
Enscheff said:
Sliders (SL)

Then we get to Gohara, who's SL shows barely average here. Average velocity with below average glove side movement. Anyone who has watched Gohara knows he throws 2 different SLs: one that's slower (8-832 MPH) with more of a sweeping CU action, and one that is faster (85-86 MPH) with more of a typical SL action. All pitching data I can find fails to differentiate between these 2 pitches, and the average of the 2 is not a good pitch despite each individual pitch perhaps being above average.
Click to expand...

Great point here. I wonder if the ability to throw both of these makes each one more effective than it would be on it's own, even though the data here picks it up as less effective?
 
Enscheff said:
Pitchers typically want high spin rates for FAs that results in 9+ inches of rise. They typically want low spin rates for SIs that result in 6 or less inches of rise (which is sink, less rise is actually more sink). They can also create sink by lowering their arm angle to produce less backspin, which is why sidearmers have elite sink.

What pitchers don't want to do is fall in that range 7-8 inches of rise. That is a "straight" fastball, and is precisely where Fried falls. I think if Fried changed to a SI the low spin would give him 4-5" of rise, which would be plus movement for a SI. If I were a rival team, I would be trying to buy low on him the moment the Braves demote him to the BP, then have him make that change.

I distinctly remember suggesting Newk ditch one of the breaking balls because I was of the opinion he could more easily work on his control while only worrying about 1 breaking ball. Both his CU and SL are good, but it looks like the SL is better. Pitchers who rely on FAs up in the zone typically pair that with a CU because those 2 pitches tunnel together very well.

The popularity of the FA/CU pairing is likely why Fried sticks with the FA even though it's a bad pitch for him.
Click to expand...

Great series of post!!

Of all the data that is being collected now I think pitch tunneling may be the most important. Mlb hitters are good so ultimately a

pitcher needs some level of deception to be effective. You can't teach pitchers velocity, spin rate, etc. but good pitch sequencing can help make up for lack of pure stuff. I think tunneling data will help explain the art of piching. My guess is guys like Maddox and glavine were elite at tunneling.
 
Thanks for all the hard work enscheff. Could you do a comparison of Fried and Kuechel? Watching both of them pitch, I see some similarity. Braves have brought Fried along slowly after his surgery, so I don't think we've seen everything from him yet. That said, he clearly has some work to do if he's going to be a contributor in the starting rotation.

What becomes more clear to me in this series of posts is that we have to go with the first wave of younger guys to begin next season to actually see what we have. I don't think September baseball means a whole lot. We need extended looks on Fried and Sims and I'd even throw Wisler out there for one last go at it.
 
50PoundHead said:
Thanks for all the hard work enscheff. Could you do a comparison of Fried and Kuechel? Watching both of them pitch, I see some similarity. Braves have brought Fried along slowly after his surgery, so I don't think we've seen everything from him yet. That said, he clearly has some work to do if he's going to be a contributor in the starting rotation.

What becomes more clear to me in this series of posts is that we have to go with the first wave of younger guys to begin next season to actually see what we have. I don't think September baseball means a whole lot. We need extended looks on Fried and Sims and I'd even throw Wisler out there for one last go at it.
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I would still like to see Wisler given a shot. He has stuff to be a starter. I don't think he has been coached well nor handled well. I hate that we kept Chuckie.
 
bravesfanMatt said:
I would still like to see Wisler given a shot. He has stuff to be a starter. I don't think he has been coached well nor handled well. I hate that we kept Chuckie.
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At his best, Wisler is probably a back-of-the-rotation guy, but I think he just has be tossed out there next year in sink-or-swim mode. He looks like a AAAA guy at this point. Some guys can survive a "mistake pitch." He can't.
 
bravesfanMatt said:
I would still like to see Wisler given a shot. He has stuff to be a starter. I don't think he has been coached well nor handled well. I hate that we kept Chuckie.
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I have Wisler as: 50 FA, 40/45 SI, 50 CU, 55/60 SL, 45/50 CH

That is a lot of usable pitches. His BB/9 suggests he is capable of average or slight below average control. That should combine for a back end SP, but his xwOBA values (.364, .334, .371) show he is awful.

Seems to me he's a guy another team might be able to "fix". Of course "fix" means back end SP, but that's a lot better than what he is now.
 
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