Maybin's Trade Value

[Enscheff]

With respect to signing a starting pitcher, the main considerations for me are value and risk (which mainly relates to the length of the contract). Is Price at an AAV of 30M over seven years a better value than Leake at an AAV of 12M over three years.

Leake won't sign for anywhere close to $36M. MLBTR seems to have him pegged at 5/75, with some guys taking the over, and some the under. Leake also said he wants to sign quickly, so that makes it pretty hard to wait him out and get a good value at the end of the offseason.

I'm guessing the Braves will end up with Lackey on a 2 year deal plus an option. Something like $8M per year for 2 years plus an option with a $2M buyout. That seems to fit the 10/10/10 budget for this offseason ($10M for the BP, $10M for the rotation, $10M for C/LF).

 

[thewupk]

Yeah I don't see Leake signing for $12 million a year. He's going to be 28 and will likely try to get the biggest contract years wise he can.

Personally I see the Braves signing a mid 30's FA starter to a 2-3 year deal.

 

[Enscheff]

Yeah I don't see Leake signing for $12 million a year. He's going to be 28 and will likely try to get the biggest contract years wise he can.

Personally I see the Braves signing a mid 30's FA starter to a 2-3 year deal.

The guys the Braves have a realistic shot at signing:

Anderson
Chen
Leake
Lackey
Kazmir

Whichever will sign for around $10M-$12M over 2-3 years will be wearing a tomahawk in 2016. It might require waiting until late in the offseason to get the price down that low though.

As far as the OF goes, expect them to sign a guy at the Parra and De Aza level ($6M-$8M). A LHed hitter like that can be the main side of a platoon with guys like Garcia and Swisher.

I would also expect the bench to be filled with a catcher like AJ or Iannetta ($5M-$8M), and rounded out with a versatile guy like KJ ($2M).

BP? Who knows, but I'm almost certain they will make at least 2 FA additions there for a total of $5M-$10M per year.

 

[dak]

Leake won't sign for anywhere close to $36M. MLBTR seems to have him pegged at 5/75, with some guys taking the over, and some the under. Leake also said he wants to sign quickly, so that makes it pretty hard to wait him out and get a good value at the end of the offseason.

I'd guess Leake will get somewhere between 4 / $48m and 5 / $65m. He's a guy w/o all-star upside that will be paid a premium for durability (in part due to age).

 

[nsacpi]

Leake just finished his age 27 season. Last 3 seasons has put up WAR of 2.0, 2.3 and 1.7.

Latos also just finished his age 27 season. Last 3 seasons has put up WAR of 4.8, 1.7 and 1.5.

Some comps among recent FA pitchers I can think of:

Matt Garza hit free agency after his age 29 season. He had put up WAR of 4.9 1.0 and 2.0 heading into FA. He got 4 years at 12.5M/year plus an option year.

Ricky Nolasco hit free agency after his age 30 season. He had put up WAR of 3.0, 2.2, 3.0. He got 4 years at 12M/year plus an option year.

Ervin Santana hit free agency last year after his age 31 season. He had put up WAR of -1.0, 2.5 and 2.9. He got 4 years at 13.5M/year plus an option year.

Francisco Liriano hit free agency last year after his age 30 season. He had put up WAR of 1.4, 3.3 and 1.9. He got 3 years at 12.3M/year.

The comps are all a bit older than Latos and Leake. I like the Liriano contract the most from the team's perspective. It is a year shorter. I think we should hold out for three years plus an option (I like the option with pitchers) and have a good chance given the glut of FA pitchers this year of landing a pitcher of similar quality for that kind of contract.

Just to add one more guy hitting free agency:

Scott Kazmir just finished his age 31 season. Has put up WAR of 2.7, 3.2 and 2.4 the past 3 seasons.

My guess is Kazmir will get a better contract (same length or more years, and higher AAV) than Leake and Latos in spite of being older. Latos will probably get less than Leake.

 

[nsacpi]

David Price will get a Scherzer like contract. The AAV will be close to 30M and the length 7 or 8 years. Price just finished his age 29 season. I think the issue with his contract from a Braves perspective is that you will get more WAR/dollar in the front years (2016-2018) and less in the back years (when the cavalry arrives and we will presumably have a stronger team). Unless you front-load the contract.

Well there is a second not exactly minor issue, which is whether the Braves have the appetite for a 30M/year deal. I think that's a big hurdle for this franchise. But hey, maybe Price will be the right pitcher at the right time. Ya never know. I think the FO was a bit distressed about what happened in 2015. They really believe in the Braves Way and the Braves brand and all that jazz, and probably believe there was some damage to the brand from the way the team played. They might decide they need to do something dramatic to repair the damage. I don't really believe that a Price signing has much of a chance of happening. But it isn't completely out of the question.

 

[Enscheff]

Garza's contract is the absolute floor for Leake, and any team should be thrilled if they sign him for that. I would be shocked if a 27 year old pitcher with zero injury concerns can't get a 5 year deal. He is not eligible for a QO, which you failed to mention in your examples, and will help keep his price as high as possible.

If the Braves want to take a chance at getting a TOR guy for a reasonable price, Latos is the guy to target. I would imagine they are more interested in getting a reliable 200 inning guy more so than taking on risk and trying to snatch a TOR guy for good value.

Having said that, I hope the plan is to wait and see which MOR guy falls through the cracks and can be signed at a discount late in the offseason.

 

[cajunrevenge]

I bet we sign Harang again.

 

[nsacpi]

He is not eligible for a QO, which you failed to mention in your examples, and will help keep his price as high as possible.

I was thinking of including information about qualifying offers since it is relevant. None of Leake, Latos and Kazmir will have qualifying offers attached to them since they were traded mid-season. Same applied to Garza and Nolasco. Santana did have a QO from us and ended up signing with a team with a protected pick. Liriano had a qualifying offer from the Pirates and ended up re-signing with them.

I think the going rate for mid-level starters this off-season will be about 6M/per projected win. That's what it was last year. Normally there would be some inflation, but I think the glut of pitching will work to keep things at last year's price. Starting pitchers projected to be worth 2-3 WAR have been getting mostly 4 year deals the last two years. With the glut I think we can get someone to sign at 6M/per projected win for 3 years plus an option year. We could also try for a shorter deal with an older pitcher like Lackey or Buehrle.