Maybin's Trade Value

[zitothebrave]

I agree with this except I would change Freeman with Simmons because I would go hard after Price and/or Greinke to lead the rotation as ACE and mentor the young pitching. I think having the best defensive shortstop in the game would help with that strategy.

Freeman is dressed up as a franchise player by the Braves but he really isn't one IMO. A franchise player needs to be in the conversation every year for the top three in baseball at his position and Freeman has never been that and probably never will be. He's a solid top 10 in baseball 1B which is good but he's closer to 10 than he is 1.

I disagree with your assessment of Freeman. I will agree he's not one of the 3 best 1st basemen in baseball.

These are his 1 to 3 year ranking in qualified 1b in fWAR

2015 - Didn't qualify but would have slotted in 10th if you plugged him in
14-15 - 7th
13-15 - 6th

Most of his "negative" is because of his health this year. He still was great when he played. And in that 3 year stretch in terms of pure bat, he was 5th. Yes he's not as good as Goldschmidt, Miggy, Votto, or Encarnacion. And he may not be better than guys like Rizzo or Davis (though Davis is way too hot and cold for my liking) but I mean it's not really a shame to be behind Goldschmidt, Miggy, and Votto, Encarnacion is largely a product of his park and is old. Odds are his fat ass won't age well.

 

[thewupk]

Thats still a lot better than whoever would have replaced him and a lot better than Mallex will put up. I think he may have worn down physically in the second half after playing in only 95 games in 2014 and 14 in 2013. If someone wants to give us premium talent for him I am fine with trading him but I dont want middle relievers, 5th starters, 4th outfielders, or utility infielders for him.

Why not? Maybin won't be retained past 2016 and is an average player at best. He's simply a place holder. If we can get someone for that might be useful in the future then we should do it.

 

[zitothebrave]

Why not? Maybin won't be retained past 2016 and is an average player at best. He's simply a place holder. If we can get someone for that might be useful in the future then we should do it.

If we can get anything and successfully reallocate that money we should do it. Imagine we sign Burnett or Floyd or some project arm, they're successful and we get a prospect at the deadline. We'd have the Maybin prosepct and another prospect. Or imagine that frees up the cap in 2016 that allows us to sign Price instead of someone like Leake?

 

[Horsehide Harry]

I disagree with your assessment of Freeman. I will agree he's not one of the 3 best 1st basemen in baseball.

These are his 1 to 3 year ranking in qualified 1b in fWAR

2015 - Didn't qualify but would have slotted in 10th if you plugged him in
14-15 - 7th
13-15 - 6th

Most of his "negative" is because of his health this year. He still was great when he played. And in that 3 year stretch in terms of pure bat, he was 5th. Yes he's not as good as Goldschmidt, Miggy, Votto, or Encarnacion. And he may not be better than guys like Rizzo or Davis (though Davis is way too hot and cold for my liking) but I mean it's not really a shame to be behind Goldschmidt, Miggy, and Votto, Encarnacion is largely a product of his park and is old. Odds are his fat ass won't age well.

Ok, we agree he's not one of the top three 1B in baseball. I stated in my post that a franchise player needs to be in the top three in baseball at his position on a consistent basis or else he's not really a franchise player. A franchise may dress them up that way because after all they have to have someone for show and tell with the fans, but that doesn't make it true.

But, even with that said, I still think Freeman is a good bordering on great but not elite player and is closer to 10 than 1 on the list of current baseball 1B (closer to 10 meaning somewhere from 6-10 than 1-5, and the valuation can be subjective a bit from day to day.

My current list would be:

1. Goldschmidt
2. Votto
3. Cabrera

4. Rizzo
5. Encarnacion
6. Davis

7. Freeman
8. Fielder
9. Abreu
10. Gonzalez

11. Teixeira
12. Duda
13. Pujols
14. Hosmer

Now, you can always argue health, track record, contract, supporting cast, etc. and Freeman might could be argued as high as five or as low as 12 on this list. But, for me 7 is about right which is a good player, no doubt, but not a franchise player for a winning franchise.

 

[clvclv]

Cam's still a perfect fit for the Cubs IMO. Stopgap for them until Billy McKinney or one of their other CF prospects is ready and they wouldn't have to give Fowler a 4 year deal.

Wonder if the organization still likes Caratini enough to take him back if Theo and Jed would include a couple of international signing slots?

 

[Enscheff]

If we can get anything and successfully reallocate that money we should do it. Imagine we sign Burnett or Floyd or some project arm, they're successful and we get a prospect at the deadline. We'd have the Maybin prosepct and another prospect. Or imagine that frees up the cap in 2016 that allows us to sign Price instead of someone like Leake?

I disagree. If the goal is to shoot for .500 next year and at least make some noise in the WC standings, Maybin can be a part of that. He can't be traded alone for a prospect that will move the needle at all, so he is more valuable in Atlanta than adding another guy at the level of Terdo or Paco.

However, if he can be packaged with some pitching to bring back someone that will slot in around the 5-10th spot in the Braves system, it would be wise to trade him.

In short, don't bother trading him for a filler prospect if that's all he can net in return.

 

[bravesfanMatt]

I disagree. If the goal is to shoot for .500 next year and at least make some noise in the WC standings, Maybin can be a part of that. He can't be traded alone for a prospect that will move the needle at all, so he is more valuable in Atlanta than adding another guy at the level of Terdo or Paco.

However, if he can be packaged with some pitching to bring back someone that will slot in around the 5-10th spot in the Braves system, it would be wise to trade him.

In short, don't bother trading him for a filler prospect if that's all he can net in return.

I think what he was saying is that even a organizational filler is fine if the money saved on Maybin's contract is allocated else where to better the team. it is only 8 million next year but that is enough when added to money already in play.

 

[Horsehide Harry]

I disagree. If the goal is to shoot for .500 next year and at least make some noise in the WC standings, Maybin can be a part of that. He can't be traded alone for a prospect that will move the needle at all, so he is more valuable in Atlanta than adding another guy at the level of Terdo or Paco.

However, if he can be packaged with some pitching to bring back someone that will slot in around the 5-10th spot in the Braves system, it would be wise to trade him.

In short, don't bother trading him for a filler prospect if that's all he can net in return.

You can't discount the dollar amount savings that would come with trading him (assuming you don't take on payroll coming back in the trade). 8M$ probably gets you the couple of relievers that you need to fix the pen or at least puts you on the road to getting that done and allows you to spend the currently available $25-$30M elsewhere.

Having said that, my current favorite scenario is to trade him to Milwaukee for: Maybin for Matt Garza, Brett Phillips and Gilbert Lara. Milwaukee is desperate to get rid of Garza. Braves net add about $4.5M in payroll for 2016 and take on an additional $3.5M in 2017 (assuming Maybins option is picked up) and could slot Garza at #3 or #4 in the rotation and hope to rehab his career so they could trade him and get something for him at the 2016 deadline or 2017 offseason. If not, and Garza craters, the Braves still get what is likely their CF of the future in Phillips and a top young international prospect.

 

[emk418]

You can't discount the dollar amount savings that would come with trading him (assuming you don't take on payroll coming back in the trade). 8M$ probably gets you the couple of relievers that you need to fix the pen or at least puts you on the road to getting that done and allows you to spend the currently available $25-$30M elsewhere.

Having said that, my current favorite scenario is to trade him to Milwaukee for: Maybin for Matt Garza, Brett Phillips and Gilbert Lara. Milwaukee is desperate to get rid of Garza. Braves net add about $4.5M in payroll for 2016 and take on an additional $3.5M in 2017 (assuming Maybins option is picked up) and could slot Garza at #3 or #4 in the rotation and hope to rehab his career so they could trade him and get something for him at the 2016 deadline or 2017 offseason. If not, and Garza craters, the Braves still get what is likely their CF of the future in Phillips and a top young international prospect.

Don't mean to be rude but you really think that Brewers would trade Garza, Phillips, and Lara for him? I'm confident in saying Brett Phillips would never even be remotely considered alone for Maybin

 

[nsacpi]

Don't mean to be rude but you really think that Brewers would trade Garza, Phillips, and Lara for him? I'm confident in saying Brett Phillips would never even be remotely considered alone for Maybin

Especially when you consider the Brewers are in a rebuilding phase. If we move Maybin, it is likely to a team that is looking to win now and has a need in center.

 

[Horsehide Harry]

Don't mean to be rude but you really think that Brewers would trade Garza, Phillips, and Lara for him? I'm confident in saying Brett Phillips would never even be remotely considered alone for Maybin

The Brewers really want to move Garza, get him off their books. I admit that it's possible they don't want to move him THAT much, but they might. Of course the Brewers wouldn't consider Phillips alone for Maybin since Phillips is probably the better player right now even though he's still in the minors and costs a fraction of Maybin and is under much longer control.

This is about moving Garza and to do that they will likely need to eat most of his salary, take a bad contract back (which Maybin isn't at this point), include talent to sweeten the pot (someone like Phillips) or some combination of all three. So, I ask for Garza, Phillips and Lara and would be willing to accept just Garza and Phillips but would be willing to include CB going the other way to gain Lara.

 

[Horsehide Harry]

Especially when you consider the Brewers are in a rebuilding phase. If we move Maybin, it is likely to a team that is looking to win now and has a need in center.

Part of rebuilding is to trim the payroll and cut the deadwood. See Upton, Melvin and Johnson, Chris as recent examples.

 

[nsacpi]

Part of rebuilding is to trim the payroll and cut the deadwood. See Upton, Melvin and Johnson, Chris as recent examples.

Fair point.

 

[clvclv]

I think what he was saying is that even a organizational filler is fine if the money saved on Maybin's contract is allocated else where to better the team. it is only 8 million next year but that is enough when added to money already in play.

That's kinda what I see happening in the end - it's why I mentioned Caratini.

If you look at it that way, you use the untradeable Bourn (who did at least look to be coming around a bit late) as the bridge to Mallex. Cam's money could be allocated to several signings - say $3 million for A. J., $3 million for a Mark Buerhle/Dillon Gee/Mike Pelfrey/Bud Norris-type wildcard for the rotation and a couple million for a LaTroy Hawkins/Jerry Blevins/Jim Johnson vet-type to help in the pen.The international signing spots would help eat into the penalty for signing Maitan or others, so Cam's money would help in several spots even if we didn't get truly "similar value" back in return for him.

 

[Enscheff]

You can't discount the dollar amount savings that would come with trading him (assuming you don't take on payroll coming back in the trade). 8M$ probably gets you the couple of relievers that you need to fix the pen or at least puts you on the road to getting that done and allows you to spend the currently available $25-$30M elsewhere.

Having said that, my current favorite scenario is to trade him to Milwaukee for: Maybin for Matt Garza, Brett Phillips and Gilbert Lara. Milwaukee is desperate to get rid of Garza. Braves net add about $4.5M in payroll for 2016 and take on an additional $3.5M in 2017 (assuming Maybins option is picked up) and could slot Garza at #3 or #4 in the rotation and hope to rehab his career so they could trade him and get something for him at the 2016 deadline or 2017 offseason. If not, and Garza craters, the Braves still get what is likely their CF of the future in Phillips and a top young international prospect.

Taking as fact the Braves will not be considering any FA who will command $100M+, they currently have enough cash to fix the BP, add a starter, sign a veteran catcher, and grab a LHed OF bat to use in a platoon. I think those acquisitions are the realisitc extent of the improvements we will see made this offseason. Trading Maybin just to free up $8M isn't going to suddenly allow them to make a play on someone like Gordon.

I would be on board with a Maybin for filler trade if the freed up money was somehow used to add an impact talent. However, going from $30M to $38M free cash to spend probably isn't going to allow the Braves to add an impact position player unless something super creative is done (which is certainly possible now that Coppy is pulling the strings).

No matter how it all shakes out, at least the Braves are going to start improving the MLB club this offseason, even if it is only incrementally. It should be VERY interesting to watch.

 

[Dalyn]

If we can get anything and successfully reallocate that money we should do it. Imagine we sign Burnett or Floyd or some project arm, they're successful and we get a prospect at the deadline. We'd have the Maybin prosepct and another prospect. Or imagine that frees up the cap in 2016 that allows us to sign Price instead of someone like Leake?

Even if we get a Price-type ace, I still want Leake. I think he is going to come at great value.

 

[bravesfanMatt]

Part of rebuilding is to trim the payroll and cut the deadwood. See Upton, Melvin and Johnson, Chris as recent examples.

love the last name, first approach.

but you want us to take on 25 million over the next 2 years to get a prospect. Didn't we just dump a bunch of bad contracts this year? Why would we work so hard to get out of so many bad contracts just to take on one as equally bad? I know you are saying Maybin - Garza doesn't equal that much.. but that is painting with a very board brush. 1). we can trade maybin for a hill of beans to dump his contract. B). We won't exercise that option and next). I don't think Garza has anything left.
don't get me wrong. I really liked your thinking, in trying to gain a position prospect.. but I think there are better ways to do it than financially hurting the team in 2017.

 

[clvclv]

The Brewers really want to move Garza, get him off their books. I admit that it's possible they don't want to move him THAT much, but they might. Of course the Brewers wouldn't consider Phillips alone for Maybin since Phillips is probably the better player right now even though he's still in the minors and costs a fraction of Maybin and is under much longer control.

This is about moving Garza and to do that they will likely need to eat most of his salary, take a bad contract back (which Maybin isn't at this point), include talent to sweeten the pot (someone like Phillips) or some combination of all three. So, I ask for Garza, Phillips and Lara and would be willing to accept just Garza and Phillips but would be willing to include CB going the other way to gain Lara.

Like emk, I hate to be rude, but trading Phillips and Lara to save $17 million when you have no chance at contending seems pretty idiotic to me personally.They'd be much better off in the long run to simply trade Garza in another bad contract swap. Garza for Melvin/B. J. would make tons more sense than trading young talent just to save money - they have absolutely no shot at running down the Cards/Cubs/Pirates in the near future..

 

[nsacpi]

love the last name, first approach.

but you want us to take on 25 million over the next 2 years to get a prospect. Didn't we just dump a bunch of bad contracts this year? Why would we work so hard to get out of so many bad contracts just to take on one as equally bad? I know you are saying Maybin - Garza doesn't equal that much.. but that is painting with a very board brush. 1). we can trade maybin for a hill of beans to dump his contract. B). We won't exercise that option and next). I don't think Garza has anything left.
don't get me wrong. I really liked your thinking, in trying to gain a position prospect.. but I think there are better ways to do it than financially hurting the team in 2017.

You have some good points there.

 

[bravesfanMatt]

You have some good points there.

Thanks.. I did really like the creative thinking aspect.. but like clvclv said, I don't think it fits the Brewers plans nor our plans..I am starting to feel like the Braves need to target position prospects in the next phase of the rebuild. more so than trying to make a big splash on the FA market. it seems these teams that remain good consistently have good young talent more so than big name FA.