Maybin's Trade Value

[Horsehide Harry]

love the last name, first approach.

but you want us to take on 25 million over the next 2 years to get a prospect. Didn't we just dump a bunch of bad contracts this year? Why would we work so hard to get out of so many bad contracts just to take on one as equally bad? I know you are saying Maybin - Garza doesn't equal that much.. but that is painting with a very board brush. 1). we can trade maybin for a hill of beans to dump his contract. B). We won't exercise that option and next). I don't think Garza has anything left.
don't get me wrong. I really liked your thinking, in trying to gain a position prospect.. but I think there are better ways to do it than financially hurting the team in 2017.

It's not taking on $25M, more like $8M when you figure the difference between what is owed Garza vs what is owed Maybin (assuming you exercise his 2017 option). But, regardless, the value of Phillips is tremendous when you see what the free market for talent acquisition really is in terms of financial cost. Teams are going crazy paying 10, 20 30M for the rights to International FA AND incurring tax penalty in some cases. Teams are guaranteeing 5-7M to high end first round draft picks who are years away from competing and are much more risky than a high end prospect like Phillips. So yeah, I think the gamble is worth it.

But, I am of the school that says incremental improvement next year is ok if you can believe that 2017 and beyond are going to be very competitive, pennant competitive, WS competitive type teams. I have no interest in the development of a newer version of a limp along middle of the road franchise that's just good enough to keep the fans from complaining too loudly but not good enough to actually win anything.

Because of that and the fact that I think the Braves have few internal options for bats, I am looking for every way to bring bats back in. I have no faith that any real help will be found from the FA market.

 

[nsacpi]

Because of that and the fact that I think the Braves have few internal options for bats, I am looking for every way to bring bats back in. I have no faith that any real help will be found from the FA market.

I think the best hope for bats is taking on players on somewhat unfavorable contracts. Guys like Kemp, Braun, Choo, Pence, Hanley Ramirez, Sandoval, Ethier. The main currency for getting those guys is willingness to take on a large part of the contracts. That currency becomes available for the Braves in 2017 in part due to a bigger budget and in part due to contracts coming off the books. Until then, I think we should acquire assets mainly based on value rather than any specific needs. In the case of bullpen assets, need and value are likely to dovetail. In the case of a starting pitcher, there is a good chance need and value dovetail as well this off-season given the glut of starting pitching on the market.

 

[bravesfanMatt]

I think the best hope for bats is taking on players on somewhat unfavorable contracts. Guys like Kemp, Braun, Choo, Pence, Hanley Ramirez, Sandoval, Ethier. The main currency for getting those guys is willingness to take on a large part of the contracts. That currency becomes available for the Braves in 2017 in part due to a bigger budget and in part due to contracts coming off the books. Until then, I think we should acquire assets mainly based on value rather than any specific needs. In the case of bullpen assets, need and value are likely to dovetail. In the case of a starting pitcher, there is a good chance need and value dovetail as well this off-season given the glut of starting pitching on the market.

I kind of disagree. and more agree with Horsehide.. I think their best chance is to acquire young cost controlled bats that will hopefully develop into stars more so than taking risks on prime stars that require a big contract or past prime stars that already have big contracts. They did this HO in the woods trade. (minus the young part). but I see them being creative in stealing close to ready prospects away from other teams. Like Horsehide's trade idea, they may try to do this by buying bad contracts (i.e. Touki trade) or by trading talent (i.e. Hector trade).. probably a combination.. but they have and will probably still continue to stockpile marginal to good talent, in hopes to use them as bargaining chips for future pieces if they develop like they are scouting.

I am all in on this approach. I am not really excited about any of the big FA hitters that will command 20+ million a year. sure they are impact type players, but I am more wanting to build something that is self sustaining and lasts for decades more so than buying a few big names now and compete in 2017. Build a strong minor league system then build a strong MLB team.

 

[NYCBrave]

Part of rebuilding is to trim the payroll and cut the deadwood. See Upton, Melvin and Johnson, Chris as recent examples.

Brett Phillips is a top 50 prospect, and Gilbert Lara was a star international prospect they signed with huge upside. We didn't get anything remotely close to that for moving Upton and Chris Johnson!!!! They would laugh us out of the room if we asked for that

 

[Horsehide Harry]

Brett Phillips is a top 50 prospect, and Gilbert Lara was a star international prospect they signed with huge upside. We didn't get anything remotely close to that for moving Upton and Chris Johnson!!!! They would laugh us out of the room if we asked for that

You have to flip your perspective. The Braves were trying to move Upton and Johnson, not agreeing to take them. To get rid of Upton, the Braves had to send along the best closer in baseball, or at least top three. Did they get something back? Sure. But the Brewers would be getting a useful (not great) Maybin back as well in my proposal (and, as I said, I would send CB if that's what it took to finish the deal).

As for Johnson, it was a swap of bad contracts that neither team wanted. Cleveland wanted the short term relief since they think they are close to competing. The Braves wanted the longer term relief, willing to take more salary in 2016 if that meant no Johnson in 2017.

 

[NYCBrave]

You have to flip your perspective. The Braves were trying to move Upton and Johnson, not agreeing to take them. To get rid of Upton, the Braves had to send along the best closer in baseball, or at least top three. Did they get something back? Sure. But the Brewers would be getting a useful (not great) Maybin back as well in my proposal (and, as I said, I would send CB if that's what it took to finish the deal).

As for Johnson, it was a swap of bad contracts that neither team wanted. Cleveland wanted the short term relief since they think they are close to competing. The Braves wanted the longer term relief, willing to take more salary in 2016 if that meant no Johnson in 2017.

I understand your perspective, I just think you're aiming way too high for prospects. As someone who follows the minor leagues very closely, I know how these pieces are valued. Also, can you find some type of precedent for the trade you're recommending? A small market team like the Brewers simply can't afford to give up that type of talent to save money

 

[thewupk]

Ok, we agree he's not one of the top three 1B in baseball. I stated in my post that a franchise player needs to be in the top three in baseball at his position on a consistent basis or else he's not really a franchise player. A franchise may dress them up that way because after all they have to have someone for show and tell with the fans, but that doesn't make it true.

But, even with that said, I still think Freeman is a good bordering on great but not elite player and is closer to 10 than 1 on the list of current baseball 1B (closer to 10 meaning somewhere from 6-10 than 1-5, and the valuation can be subjective a bit from day to day.

My current list would be:

1. Goldschmidt

2. Votto

3. Cabrera

4. Rizzo

5. Encarnacion

6. Davis

7. Freeman

8. Fielder

9. Abreu

10. Gonzalez

11. Teixeira

12. Duda

13. Pujols

14. Hosmer

Now, you can always argue health, track record, contract, supporting cast, etc. and Freeman might could be argued as high as five or as low as 12 on this list. But, for me 7 is about right which is a good player, no doubt, but not a franchise player for a winning franchise.

Using a position, especially when considering it's one of the strongest offensive positions, isn't really fair. A player can be a top 3 hitter among catchers and not be a franchise player. With that being said over the past 3 seasons he has 86.3 offensive runs above replacement which is good for 12th in baseball. His WRC+ is 141 which is 13th in baseball over that period as well. That's a lot better than good.

 

[Horsehide Harry]

I understand your perspective, I just think you're aiming way too high for prospects. As someone who follows the minor leagues very closely, I know how these pieces are valued. Also, can you find some type of precedent for the trade you're recommending? A small market team like the Brewers simply can't afford to give up that type of talent to save money

Arizona

As for the Brewers being small market, they aren't really. They fund their team as mid market and are supported locally that way.

 

[Horsehide Harry]

Using a position, especially when considering it's one of the strongest offensive positions, isn't really fair. A player can be a top 3 hitter among catchers and not be a franchise player. With that being said over the past 3 seasons he has 86.3 offensive runs above replacement which is good for 12th in baseball. His WRC+ is 141 which is 13th in baseball over that period as well. That's a lot better than good.

He's been consistently good but never great. Every year very good but not top three at his position. As far as saying it's not fair to consider only his position when establishing whether he's great or just good, that eliminates positional value and defensive value which isn't fair to other positions. There is a reason why short stops are short stops and 1B are 1B.

Yadier Molina is a franchise player even though he appears nowhere on offensive production lists. Machado, Arenando, Donaldson are franchise guys.

Freddie is a very good core player but he's not beyond replacement.

 

[clvclv]

It's not taking on $25M, more like $8M when you figure the difference between what is owed Garza vs what is owed Maybin (assuming you exercise his 2017 option). But, regardless, the value of Phillips is tremendous when you see what the free market for talent acquisition really is in terms of financial cost. Teams are going crazy paying 10, 20 30M for the rights to International FA AND incurring tax penalty in some cases. Teams are guaranteeing 5-7M to high end first round draft picks who are years away from competing and are much more risky than a high end prospect like Phillips. So yeah, I think the gamble is worth it.

But, I am of the school that says incremental improvement next year is ok if you can believe that 2017 and beyond are going to be very competitive, pennant competitive, WS competitive type teams. I have no interest in the development of a newer version of a limp along middle of the road franchise that's just good enough to keep the fans from complaining too loudly but not good enough to actually win anything.

Because of that and the fact that I think the Braves have few internal options for bats, I am looking for every way to bring bats back in. I have no faith that any real help will be found from the FA market.

It is absolutely taking on $25 million (or when you break it down, $17 million) - there's very close to no chance (only because I hate absolutes) that the Braves exercise Cam's 2017 option. They took on Bourn and Swisher's 2016 money to make sure CJ's 2017 money wasn't on the books. I understand why everyone's been so focused on the free-agent bats and arms that are available this winter - we ALL hate losing - but the Johns are trying to put a decent product on the field while focusing on next winter, not 2016.

The reason(s) you don't blow the bank this winter (the $30-35 million we assume is available) by signing or trading for longer-term deals that would be on the books after 2016 when you're just looking to take one step forward instead of two is the potentially available names in 2017 that actually fit where you expect to be then. If you add Bourn and Swisher's expiring contracts ($26 million) to Maybin's 2017 option ($1 million) and you DON'T expand payroll with contracts that carry into 2017, you're potentially sitting on a mint ($57 million) to go on a spending spree with to open the new park and can conceivably plug every hole.

Potential 2017 Free-Agents...

Catcher:
Salvador Perez and Jonathon Lucroy

LF (or RF if Markakis slides over):
Matt Holliday, Carlos Gomez, Jay Bruce, and Josh Reddick

SPs:
Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez, Matt Moore, Andrew Cashner, and Jered Weaver

You could conceivably sign Strasburg to front the rotation (7 years/$210 million - $30 per), Holliday to hit behind Freeman (3 years $45 million - $15 per), and either of Perez or Lucroy (3 years/$30 million - $10 per) and have money left even if payroll doesn't expand.

Would give you...

CF- Smith, 2B- Peterson/Castro (or potentially Albies), 1B- Freeman, LF- Holliday, RF- Markakis, 3B- Olivera, C- Perez/Lucroy, SS- Simmons

SPs - Strasburg, Miller, Teheran, Wisler, Banuelos/Jenkins/Sims/whomever with Fried, Toussaint, and Allard coming

 

[Horsehide Harry]

It is absolutely taking on $25 million (or when you break it down, $17 million) - there's very close to no chance (only because I hate absolutes) that the Braves exercise Cam's 2017 option. They took on Bourn and Swisher's 2016 money to make sure CJ's 2017 money wasn't on the books. I understand why everyone's been so focused on the free-agent bats and arms that are available this winter - we ALL hate losing - but the Johns are trying to put a decent product on the field while focusing on next winter, not 2016.

The reason(s) you don't blow the bank this winter (the $30-35 million we assume is available) by signing or trading for longer-term deals that would be on the books after 2016 when you're just looking to take one step forward instead of two is the potentially available names in 2017 that actually fit where you expect to be then. If you add Bourn and Swisher's expiring contracts ($26 million) to Maybin's 2017 option ($1 million) and you DON'T expand payroll with contracts that carry into 2017, you're potentially sitting on a mint ($57 million) to go on a spending spree with to open the new park and can conceivably plug every hole.

Potential 2017 Free-Agents...

Catcher:
Salvador Perez and Jonathon Lucroy

LF (or RF if Markakis slides over):
Matt Holliday, Carlos Gomez, Jay Bruce, and Josh Reddick

SPs:
Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez, Matt Moore, Andrew Cashner, and Jered Weaver

You could conceivably sign Strasburg to front the rotation (7 years/$210 million - $30 per), Holliday to hit behind Freeman (3 years $45 million - $15 per), and either of Perez or Lucroy (3 years/$30 million - $10 per) and have money left even if payroll doesn't expand.

Would give you...

CF- Smith, 2B- Peterson/Castro (or potentially Albies), 1B- Freeman, LF- Holliday, RF- Markakis, 3B- Olivera, C- Perez/Lucroy, SS- Simmons

SPs - Strasburg, Miller, Teheran, Wisler, Banuelos/Jenkins/Sims/whomever with Fried, Toussaint, and Allard coming

Ok, let's say its a net plus of $17M, plus Phillips and Lara.

Chances are the Braves will sign a FA starter this offseason. I certainly hope and advocate them signing a TOR guy like Price or Greinke, plus another guy like Smardzjia but that would mean freeing payroll which I would do even with taking on Garza.

But, let's say the Braves don't go anywhere near what I would like for them to do. Chances are that they are going to blow $7-10M on a starter, probably three years minimum, anyway. IF that is the case, they aren't getting a TOR guy for that, not even a #2, best bet is a #3 or 4. Garza, best case is a #3 worst is likely a 5 (and if Garza turns it around, you might be able to flip him and make that $17M virtually nothing). So, if you get Garza, you don't need that FA starter AND you get Phillips and Lara. Phillips is a given for CF, likely NLT 2017. Lara is a long term play.

I understand your 2017 FA play as well and agree to a point. But, I think we will see a fairly significant increase in payroll as we go into 2017 and the new park which would allow you to play when combined with the money from Swisher/Bourn.

 

[thewupk]

He's been consistently good but never great. Every year very good but not top three at his position. As far as saying it's not fair to consider only his position when establishing whether he's great or just good, that eliminates positional value and defensive value which isn't fair to other positions. There is a reason why short stops are short stops and 1B are 1B.

Yadier Molina is a franchise player even though he appears nowhere on offensive production lists. Machado, Arenando, Donaldson are franchise guys.

Freddie is a very good core player but he's not beyond replacement.

I would argue that being consistent is part of being great. There is value in knowing what you are going to get. And when you do include defense and position Freddie comes in at 27th in the last 3 years in total WAR. Now I'm not saying he's a franchise player. He's no superstar. But I would consider him a great player and not just merely good as was stated earlier. But honestly those are just semantics. And yes he isn't beyond replacement but I don't see where we could improve by trying to replace him.

Sadly the Braves traded the one franchise player that they had.

 

[Hudson2]

Strausburg just doesn't do it for me. If I'm gonna sign an ace then I do it this offseason rather than wait till next. We can't fix our holes this offseason to compete for anything big next year so just get one big piece and a couple of filler pieces then next offseason spend more to fix the offense. I'd go after Price big time and let him know that next year isn't the year we are looking to win it all but are the following year going into the new stadium.

 

[cajunrevenge]

Freeman is a franchise hitter if I ever saw one. People whine all the time about hitters not being consistent or not hitting in the clutch/RISP, well Freddie does those things. His overall stat line may not be the best but runners on base and RISP he hits like an MVP. Best of all he does his best work vs our main division rivals. They **** their pants when he comes up with RISP. 3 year average with men on base Freeman has hit .317.405/.527. Thats in almost 800 at bats. Lets not forget Freeman turned 26 about a month ago. He was the same age as Chipper was in 95. 26-30 is the age where he should be hitting his prime. A lot of players like Chipper have career years in that age group. More specifically 26-27 is the age when a lot of career years happen which Freddie will be entering this year.

 

[clvclv]

Strausburg just doesn't do it for me. If I'm gonna sign an ace then I do it this offseason rather than wait till next. We can't fix our holes this offseason to compete for anything big next year so just get one big piece and a couple of filler pieces then next offseason spend more to fix the offense. I'd go after Price big time and let him know that next year isn't the year we are looking to win it all but are the following year going into the new stadium.

I agree - not personally a fan of Strasburg at all. Just making the point that after I backed up after thinking more about Hart's comment that we're not likely players at the top end of the market this winter even with $30-$35 million available to spend, I started looking at other players that could fill the current holes as the new park opens instead of before it.

2017 and 2018:
Salvador Perez
Jonathon Lucroy
Todd Frazier
Mike Moustakas
Jose Bautista
Matt Holliday
Lorenzo Cain
Carlos Gomez
Carlos Gonzalez
J. D. Martinez
Jay Bruce
Josh Reddick
Jake Arrieta
Stephen Strasburg
Gio Gonzalez
Francisco Liriano
Matt Moore
Tyson Ross
Drew Smyly
Andrew Cashner
Jered Weaver

The point is to build a consistent contender starting in 2017. While obviously not all those players will make it to free-agency, quite a few will. I now understand being patient after looking at that list. Spending money just because it's available isn't always the right course - doing so led to the Uggla extension, the B. J./Melvin signing, and the CJ extension. There's little chance that adding one big piece this winter makes you a contender, so be patient. Make a couple short-term signings that will help improve the current product for 2016, give yourself another year to evaluate Smith, Olivera, Albies, and the young Pitchers (particularly Jenkins, Sims, Fried, and Allard since they could all come fast), make a big splash internationally while you have the chance - and THEN make sure you're spending the money in the right places.

 

[nsacpi]

If we tried to sign Price or Greinke this off-season we would see how unpalatable we currently are as destination.

 

[Horsehide Harry]

Freeman is a franchise hitter if I ever saw one. People whine all the time about hitters not being consistent or not hitting in the clutch/RISP, well Freddie does those things. His overall stat line may not be the best but runners on base and RISP he hits like an MVP. Best of all he does his best work vs our main division rivals. They **** their pants when he comes up with RISP. 3 year average with men on base Freeman has hit .317.405/.527. Thats in almost 800 at bats. Lets not forget Freeman turned 26 about a month ago. He was the same age as Chipper was in 95. 26-30 is the age where he should be hitting his prime. A lot of players like Chipper have career years in that age group. More specifically 26-27 is the age when a lot of career years happen which Freddie will be entering this year.

I don't think "clutch" makes a franchise player. It's a good trait to have but not one where you build your team around a guy because he is clutch. I have said all along that I think that Freeman is "very good" bordering on great but not elite. And, I stand by that since he's not even in the top three for his position.

Now, can he become elite? Can he become a franchise player? Sure, and he's not that far away. I have hopes that his wrist issues will finally be behind him and he will take the next step to become that elite guy that we all want. But, it's just as likely that the wrist injury could be chronic and slowly rob him of his power until he becomes Casey Kotchman.

If you could move him for two or more young players who will fill positions that are holes elsewhere AND free up the committed payroll then I think you have to look at doing that, even if it means that you create a hole at 1B. For instance, lets say you trade him and get a guy back who can be your starting catcher and another guy who can be your starting LF and you free up $20M that you can use to invest in a different 1B or to go get a starting TOR starter. If Freeman is Chipper Jones, Miguel Cabrera, Bryce Harper, etc. you just can't do that. But, he's not quite there and may never be.

 

[50PoundHead]

Strausburg just doesn't do it for me. If I'm gonna sign an ace then I do it this offseason rather than wait till next. We can't fix our holes this offseason to compete for anything big next year so just get one big piece and a couple of filler pieces then next offseason spend more to fix the offense. I'd go after Price big time and let him know that next year isn't the year we are looking to win it all but are the following year going into the new stadium.

I view Strasburg as this era's Bert Blyleven. Great stuff and great peripherals, but seems to pay for every mistake he makes on the mound.

As for the larger view, I preach patience. If we do anything, I'd try to sign an anchor for the rotation and a couple of bullpen arms. See what we have in Olivera, Peterson, and Mallex Smith. I just hope they don't do anything stupid. I ragged on Wren for what I saw as impulsiveness. I'll rag as loud if I see the same behavior from the ranch hands at the Triple J Ranch.

 

[nsacpi]

I view Strasburg as this era's Bert Blyleven. Great stuff and great peripherals, but seems to pay for every mistake he makes on the mound.

As for the larger view, I preach patience. If we do anything, I'd try to sign an anchor for the rotation and a couple of bullpen arms. See what we have in Olivera, Peterson, and Mallex Smith. I just hope they don't do anything stupid. I ragged on Wren for what I saw as impulsiveness. I'll rag as loud if I see the same behavior from the ranch hands at the Triple J Ranch.

With respect to signing a starting pitcher, the main considerations for me are value and risk (which mainly relates to the length of the contract). Is Price at an AAV of 30M over seven years a better value than Leake at an AAV of 12M over three years.

 

[Horsehide Harry]

With respect to signing a starting pitcher, the main considerations for me are value and risk (which mainly relates to the length of the contract). Is Price at an AAV of 30M over seven years a better value than Leake at an AAV of 12M over three years.

Barring injury to either then yes Price is the better option because the Braves aren't competing in 16, will be better but not a finished product in 17 and will hopefully be fully formed in 18, just at the time Leake shuffles off.

I might view the question differently if it was the same situation and we were coming on the 2018 season.