Glavine doubts things like effective velocity. The Braves would be the DBacks of a few years ago with Galvine at the helm.
This **** just keeps getting better and better haha.
Megathread: Braves lose Maitan, Bae and 10+ plus International Sanctions.
- Thread starter SJ24
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Glavine doubts things like effective velocity. The Braves would be the DBacks of a few years ago with Galvine at the helm.
This **** just keeps getting better and better haha.
50PoundHead
Hessmania Forever
If you're going to lie to someone, I hope it's someone who is a much better player than Sean Burnett.
I enjoy analytics as much as most, but don't put as much stock in them as some of the more die-hard supporters of that approach on the site do. I think using them is fine, but I really think they only contribute at the margins. You have good players and you have lesser players. The Braves' problem right now is that they have too many lesser players on the team for one reason or another. Some of current array of players are young and may well improve, but the overall talent level of the team puts them right where they should be in the standings. I see payroll as the bigger problem. I agree that analytics can help distribute a payroll more wisely to build a better roster and we haven't done that.
I'm shocked an old guy doesn't embrace analytics haha.
All MLB teams are increasing their nerd stables because it works.
chop2chip
Well-known member
Do we want this? He took special interest in wisler just before he became a human pitching machine.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
This article by Joel Sherman provides some interesting quotes. It is a week old, but I'm not sure if it's been discussed around here.
http://nypost.com/2017/10/05/execs-open-up-on-dysfunction-threatening-braves-foundation/
http://nypost.com/2017/10/05/execs-open-up-on-dysfunction-threatening-braves-foundation/
12:25
MadduxGlavineSmoltz: Hey Dave, please give your thoughts on where the braves should go from here? A lot of rumors are than Moore will sign on, and Glavine will be a part of the process as well.. How do you feel about that?
12:25
Dave Cameron: I wouldn’t be thrilled with that if i was a Braves fan. But I wouldn’t have been thrilled with what Coppy was doing either.
I don't like building around risky pitching prospects either.
12:28
Bat: Dave, I’m a Mets fan and I’d like to see Joey Cora or Gabe Kapler as their next manager. Without knowing anything more than you know now, if you were running a team with a vacancy who’d you choose as your team’s new manager (and no current manager could switch teams)?
12:28
Dave Cameron: If you want a Cora, you should want Alex, not Joey.
12:28
Dave Cameron: And based on what I’ve heard, I’d probably give Dave Martinez a shot.
I want McLeod and Martinez as a package deal from Chicago.
12:29
Dank Aaron: I know that you hate the Braves, but what is the floor for the penalties they are looking at? Banned from entire signing periods?
12:30
Dave Cameron: Yes, I’m a noted Braves hater because I think public prospect rankings have an established trend of overrating risky pitching prospects.
12:31
Dave Cameron: But yeah, I’d guess the Braves won’t be allowed to sign anyone internationally next year, and maybe for more than one year.
That doesn't seem like a severe enough punishment to warrant firing the GM to me, especially compared to recent things GMs haven't been fired for.
So yeah, Coppy was scapegoated.
MadduxGlavineSmoltz: Hey Dave, please give your thoughts on where the braves should go from here? A lot of rumors are than Moore will sign on, and Glavine will be a part of the process as well.. How do you feel about that?
12:25
Dave Cameron: I wouldn’t be thrilled with that if i was a Braves fan. But I wouldn’t have been thrilled with what Coppy was doing either.
I don't like building around risky pitching prospects either.
12:28
Bat: Dave, I’m a Mets fan and I’d like to see Joey Cora or Gabe Kapler as their next manager. Without knowing anything more than you know now, if you were running a team with a vacancy who’d you choose as your team’s new manager (and no current manager could switch teams)?
12:28
Dave Cameron: If you want a Cora, you should want Alex, not Joey.
12:28
Dave Cameron: And based on what I’ve heard, I’d probably give Dave Martinez a shot.
I want McLeod and Martinez as a package deal from Chicago.
12:29
Dank Aaron: I know that you hate the Braves, but what is the floor for the penalties they are looking at? Banned from entire signing periods?
12:30
Dave Cameron: Yes, I’m a noted Braves hater because I think public prospect rankings have an established trend of overrating risky pitching prospects.
12:31
Dave Cameron: But yeah, I’d guess the Braves won’t be allowed to sign anyone internationally next year, and maybe for more than one year.
That doesn't seem like a severe enough punishment to warrant firing the GM to me, especially compared to recent things GMs haven't been fired for.
So yeah, Coppy was scapegoated.
Dude, I actually agree with you about him being scapegoated and am tired of reading it. Do you realize how you say the same thing over and over again.
We hear you. You are seen. You are important. You matter.
striker42
Well-known member
I think fans have a tendency to overstate the importance of analytics because it's something fans can dabble in on their own. There tends to be an impression that analytics is the end all be all. In reality, it's one tool in the toolbox.
Analytics aren't necessary in judging the majority of players. It doesn't take a statistics degree to tell that Kershaw is good or that Wisler was terrible this year.
Analytics does have an important role. First, it's an excellent backstop for scouting. A hitter that's getting lucky can fool scouts. Analytics help backstop that by either confirming the scouting report or throwing up a red flag.
Analytics also helps trying to find value. Like I said, no one needs stats to tell that Kershaw is good but his talent is going to cost. Analytics can help identify guys that are undervalued in the market.
Advanced stats are useful and being better at it than others gives you a valuable competitive edge. But then again so does having better scouts or better player development guys. It's just a tool.
It is a tool and it's an important one, but I don't necessarily think you have to have a GM that is analytical. You hire some nerds and put them down the hall in a dimly lit wing and let them do their thing tp provide you with the information. It's information. That's all it is. You have to then have the business acumen and salesmanship to use said information correctly to benefit you. We're finding out that Coppy did not have the salesmanship necessary as he did not value relationships. That short sighted thinking usually comes back to bite you.
striker42
Well-known member
Absolutely. I want my analytics guys to be into the math that starts to get weird. They should eat and breathe numbers. The GM needs to be able to appreciate the end results they give him but his skills need to be elsewhere.
50PoundHead
Hessmania Forever
Read again. I respect analytics, but if you look at which teams are in the playoffs, I think it's safe to say that payroll is likely a bigger contributor to success. I think analytics help make teams a little better. I think good players regardless of how one derives at their value are what matters. You folks talk about process being more important than results. Sorry. It isn't. That doesn't mean one should subscribe to any process, but most any GM with half a brain can put together a process that makes sense within the salary constraints he faces.
Half the things you stat guys talk about I figured out when I was 12 years old in the mid-1960s. Statistics are two-dimensional representations and one has to get past what are termed "counting stats" to differentiate the value of players. No crap. I subscribed to a lot of the early Bill James' stuff because it did just that. I see a lot of what is being thrown around now amounts to improved scouting information. But even that can be misleading. Raw velocity. Effective velocity. Helpful stuff. But if it doesn't lead to an ability to throw quality strikes, it's just information. We collect so much data across our lives, but so little of it is actually useful. I'm all for analyzing the living daylights out of stuff, but if it doesn't lead to effective application, it remains an exercise.
chop2chip
Well-known member
This is an absolutely perfect post. Thank you, 50.
BeanieAntics
Arbitration Eligible
Rockies were 16th, Indians were 17th, Astros were 18th, Twins were 22nd, and the Diamondbacks were 26th in opening day payroll this year. I don't think that shows us much of anything as far as payroll being a better indicator of success.
Edited The Astros in to the mix too. They also were bottom half
chop2chip
Well-known member
An example of results superceding process is DM's trade of Wil Myers for Wade Davis and James Shields. At the time the process for that trade was ridiculed like I have never seen before. As we have seen the price for elite relievers sky rocket to the point where analytics savvy organizations have paid through the nose for elite relievers, you can make a very solid argument that the process of that trade would be viewed differently than it was at the time.
Now I understand Wade Davis wasn't what he was at the time, so this isn't the best example. But my bigger point is that we tend to judge process differently as our information improves, but the results remain the same.
50PoundHead
Hessmania Forever
Look at where the key players for Twins and Astros are in terms of experience. A lot of the key performers on those teams are barely arbitration-eligible and for those teams to enjoy continued success, it's going to take some coin. Correa's not going to be making $550,000 forever. Again, think of the early-1990s Braves where a similar dynamic was taking place. I will give you the Indians, but I think the Rockies and Diamondbacks are kind of flukes.
chop2chip, I was thinking about the same trade. When folks in here were decrying Moore's action, I was one who stated "it's a now-for-later trade;" which is clearly was. Shields and Davis both contributed to the Royals' success as Moore saw the window closing a bit. Three of the four guys they traded (Montgomery, Myers, and Odorizzi) have had varying degrees of success at the big league level, but are clearly contributors. But I am hard-pressed to believe the Royals make the post-season without making that trade or one like it.
so let me ask, to the people who think the FO forced coppy out and are making things up about him...where are these reports from writers coming from? the reports of other execs hating dealing with him? are they made up? made up by the braves' FO? him pissing off an agent - was that made up by the FO?
I don't think any of it is made up.
But you don't think it's odd we didn't hear anything about any of it until he was fired? Are you really that naive?
50PoundHead
Hessmania Forever
I think it's more about the upper echelon of guys wanting to get rid of him more than anything else.
As for the behavior of the player acquisition staff, everyone here should read "Dollar Sign on the Muscle." It's a book by Kevin Kerrane about old-time scouts and the crap they used to pull to sign players, especially prior to the draft era. While things are more buttoned-down now, the same kind of bait-and-switch goes on today. Think of when the A's drafted and signed Von Poppel, who had told everyone he wasn't going to sign. People don't think the A's cooked something up. I think it was even more pronounced in the draft-and-follow era when teams would make promises to a guy that they would draft him a subsequent year (and sweeten the bonus) if he went to a JC for a year. I have no proof and my logic is a stretch, but I always felt the Braves did something like that with OF Steve Doetsch back in the early-2000s. It's a bit of a cesspool.
https://www.amazon.com/Dollar-Sign-.../ref=tmm_pap_swatch_0?_encoding=UTF8&qid=&sr=
striker42
Well-known member
We heard about front office trouble well before he was fired. Rosenthal reported that.
Also, I think the Braves weren't aware of the investigation before like a week before Coppy was fired. IIRC, that's when they were notified by MLB.
I'll admit that it's entirely possible that Coppy's firing was based on factors above and beyond the rules violations. However I think the most likely factor that added to Coppy getting fired was ability as a manager. Wren's poor relationships with employees was a factor in him getting canned. We know people hated working for Coppy so I imagine that went into consideration.