chop2chip
Well-known member
He was such a hot mess that whole weekend. That had to be a bizarre experience for all these young kids who grew up around the stoic Freeman.
Michael Harris Extension Reportedly Coming
- Thread starter UNCBlue012
- Start date
He was such a hot mess that whole weekend. That had to be a bizarre experience for all these young kids who grew up around the stoic Freeman.
CrazyTrain
Well-known member
Thankfully with the savings he's getting from signing the hitters they can spend more AAV on the pitchers for fewer seasons.
Deester11
Well-known member
I was there. Wouldn't trade it ever!
FG did a better job breaking this contract's value down than I did:
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/rookie-standout-michael-harris-ii-signs-72-million-extension/
"Under the old CBA’s service time rules, ZiPS estimates the Braves would have had to shell out approximately $41 million over Harris’ six cost-controlled seasons and then $57.5 million for two years of free agency, totaling $98 million over eight years. But Harris’ rookie campaign changes those calculations, as under the new CBA, a player who finishes in the top two in Rookie of the Year voting gets a full year of service time. My award estimator gives Harris an 85% chance of finishing in the top two in the NL Rookie of the Year race; hitting free agency a year earlier boosts the system’s estimate to $123.5 million. Sum it up, and you get a valuation of about $120 million over eight years."
So the Braves got $120M of player value for $72M. Pretty good value.
However, these early deals are not without risk. This article only touches on it:
"ZiPS doesn’t expect Harris to maintain quite this level of performance, and it isn’t enamored enough with his approach at the plate to give him a huge peak."
Harris does have a high chase rate, and it's hurting his BB rate. If he doesn't improve upon it he will be stuck being a power vs hit version of Inciarte. Still valuable, but a bottom half hitter. This is doubly so if he doesn't improve vs LHP and needs a platoon partner. At that points he's a 2+ win guy signed for 8 years.
The good news is that he's 21, and projection systems like ZiPs are not good at projecting young kids truly improving their skills. For example, ZiPs had Harris as a .242/.294/.380 line entering the season because it has no idea how to predict someone like Harris improving very real skills in very real ways very quickly. So it wouldn't shock anyone if Harris figured out some plate discipline, figured out how to handle LHP a bit better, and became a 4+ win CFer.
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/rookie-standout-michael-harris-ii-signs-72-million-extension/
"Under the old CBA’s service time rules, ZiPS estimates the Braves would have had to shell out approximately $41 million over Harris’ six cost-controlled seasons and then $57.5 million for two years of free agency, totaling $98 million over eight years. But Harris’ rookie campaign changes those calculations, as under the new CBA, a player who finishes in the top two in Rookie of the Year voting gets a full year of service time. My award estimator gives Harris an 85% chance of finishing in the top two in the NL Rookie of the Year race; hitting free agency a year earlier boosts the system’s estimate to $123.5 million. Sum it up, and you get a valuation of about $120 million over eight years."
So the Braves got $120M of player value for $72M. Pretty good value.
However, these early deals are not without risk. This article only touches on it:
"ZiPS doesn’t expect Harris to maintain quite this level of performance, and it isn’t enamored enough with his approach at the plate to give him a huge peak."
Harris does have a high chase rate, and it's hurting his BB rate. If he doesn't improve upon it he will be stuck being a power vs hit version of Inciarte. Still valuable, but a bottom half hitter. This is doubly so if he doesn't improve vs LHP and needs a platoon partner. At that points he's a 2+ win guy signed for 8 years.
The good news is that he's 21, and projection systems like ZiPs are not good at projecting young kids truly improving their skills. For example, ZiPs had Harris as a .242/.294/.380 line entering the season because it has no idea how to predict someone like Harris improving very real skills in very real ways very quickly. So it wouldn't shock anyone if Harris figured out some plate discipline, figured out how to handle LHP a bit better, and became a 4+ win CFer.
GovClintonTyree
<B>Vencer a Los Doyers</B>
I think the key indicator will be if he stops trying, like Riley did after he signed his big deal.
chop2chip
Well-known member
Present value of the money Harris gets now makes the math less egregious in his favor. But overall this seems like a solid bet for the Braves to make. If Harris becomes the next Starling Marte, Braves will have more resources to dump into its starting pitching.
CyYoung31
Shift Leader
We already saw it last night when he didn’t run out the fly ball to the wall.
Russ2dollas
10 yr, $185 million Extension
Chase rate is an issue. But so few at bats in aa, none in aaa. He’s seeing mlb quality breaking pitches for basically the first time.
I’d expect his discipline to improve a lot next year.
I’d expect his discipline to improve a lot next year.
playing this well basically on the fly in the major leagues is a great sign. his xwOBA says he’s over performing but even hitting to that would be impressive for a rookie his age.
chop2chip
Well-known member
Harris walk rate has improved every month. For August it’s at a very respectable 8.3%.
He needs to clean up the strikeout rate some (undoubtedly a symptom of his high chase rate which unfortunately hasn’t improved much). Given he had very little time at AA before his call up, I expect this to improve with experience.
He needs to clean up the strikeout rate some (undoubtedly a symptom of his high chase rate which unfortunately hasn’t improved much). Given he had very little time at AA before his call up, I expect this to improve with experience.
If he is hitting 25+ bombs and playing GG defense I think we will be fine.
I think the increased walk rate is evidence that his chase rate will come down. Some of those K's are starting to become walks. As that trend continues, the K rate will come down. It is all connected.