MIDSEASON TOP 30 PROSPECTS -- REVISED!
- Thread starter rico43
- Start date
I really just don't understand why our fans are continuously dissapointed in the farm system based on BA/BP/Sickels rankings anymore. Braves have PROVEN to be adept talent evaulators and more importantly...TALENT DEVELOPERS!
There will be a few players in the farm system right now (not including the current draft) that will be productive major leaguers with one or two high level players.
There will be a few players in the farm system right now (not including the current draft) that will be productive major leaguers with one or two high level players.
50PoundHead
Hessmania Forever
Good list rico43. I've always been a fan of Elmer Reyes, but I think you have him too high. Like you, I think a lot of folks fall in love with Kubitza's walk numbers and don't look at the rest of his resume, which is pretty bleh.
You like a lot of the independent league arms more than I do, but you've seen these guys and I haven't. I agree that Hoyt could be a Varvaro-like performer.
I'm not as high on the system as a lot of the more avid boosters. There's some talent here and if we can sign Heyward long-term to go along with Freeman, a group of complementary players may be what we need and there are a number of those types of guys in the system. But there's not much "pure" offensive talent in the system. Davidson may change that, but he's likely four to five years away from swinging a bat in a major league game.
You like a lot of the independent league arms more than I do, but you've seen these guys and I haven't. I agree that Hoyt could be a Varvaro-like performer.
I'm not as high on the system as a lot of the more avid boosters. There's some talent here and if we can sign Heyward long-term to go along with Freeman, a group of complementary players may be what we need and there are a number of those types of guys in the system. But there's not much "pure" offensive talent in the system. Davidson may change that, but he's likely four to five years away from swinging a bat in a major league game.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Whenever a minor league players breaks through, it is worth looking in some detail at what is happening. Are their strikeout and walk rates improving? Are they getting some luck in the form of a high BABIP.
Take Elmer Reyes for example. I think some of his improvement is genuine. But I can't ignore the fact he has a .400 BABIP so far this year. Nor can I ignore the fact his walk rate is down from last year and his strikeout rate his up. This makes me reluctant to put him in the Top 10.
Kubitza has a .382 BABIP. So some of his improvement is really luck as well. But in his case the 2014 BABIP is not diverging as much from career norms as is the case with Reyes. I also take encouragement from a small decline in his strikeout rate. It is still too high, but at least the trend there is in the right direction.
Take Elmer Reyes for example. I think some of his improvement is genuine. But I can't ignore the fact he has a .400 BABIP so far this year. Nor can I ignore the fact his walk rate is down from last year and his strikeout rate his up. This makes me reluctant to put him in the Top 10.
Kubitza has a .382 BABIP. So some of his improvement is really luck as well. But in his case the 2014 BABIP is not diverging as much from career norms as is the case with Reyes. I also take encouragement from a small decline in his strikeout rate. It is still too high, but at least the trend there is in the right direction.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Why would they move a player whose most attractive quality is his defensive skill as a catcher to another position.
Some food for thought regarding CB: Even with his offensive improvement this season his OPS in AAA is not much different (less than 0.03 higher) than what we are getting from CJ and BJ in the majors. Also worth noting is the fact that his walk rate is down from last year and strikeout rate is up.
So this talk of CB to third doesn't make sense. Nor would it make sense to put CB into the lineup and move Gattis to LF. There is no offensive gain and the defensive loss in the outfield would exceed any defensive gain at catcher.
I just worry about moving Gattis around since he has done well as a catcher. It is intriguing though to get CB behind the plate.
KB21
Where's My Cup of Coffee?
I agree with this. When you compare the Braves system now to what it was in the early 2000s, there is really no comparison when it comes to high level talent the Braves have. Sure, the Braves have had some unexpected guys get promoted and produce, but that doesn't diminish the fact that the draft philosophy change this team has had has coincided with the fall off in true high level talents in the system. Now, even back then, all that high level talent didn't always develop into stars, but you have to look a this system right now and honestly say that there is no Adam Wainwright type of potential #1 starter, no Jason Heyward type outfield and hitting prospect, no Brian McCann type of hitting prospect, and no Freddie Freeman type of hitter YET, though I think Braxton Davidson could very well become a Freddie Freeman type of hitter. I'm not even sure the Braves even have a Jeff Francoeur type of prospect right now either.
Basically, I think you can draw the conclusion that the lack of high level prospects in the system is directly related to the Braves moving from a philosophy where they draft mostly high school players early on to one where they pick and choose a few high school kids they can sign and draft mostly college arms and bats in the top 10 rounds now. As a result, I think we have loaded the system with a lot of organizational guys who will probably max out as AAA players and have not loaded up on the high upside guys.
My prediction. Give it a year, and Braxton Davidson will be one of the top 2 prospects in the system probably along with Lucas Sims.
This only happens if Peraza losses his eligibility.
KB21
Where's My Cup of Coffee?
I'm not sure the defensive downside in the outfield would actually be that much considering that BJ has been an overall negative defender during his time. Yes, he can make a play like he made last night, but one of the reasons for the move cited in the article was BJ's defensive miscues have really been grating on the nerves of the Braves upper level management.
KB21
Where's My Cup of Coffee?
I wouldn't be surprised if Peraza ends up in Atlanta by this time next year, possibly as a center fielder if he has the arm for it.
Depending on TLS I think Peraza will be over at third base. CJ will be easier to move than BJ.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Whether it was by design or not on the Braves part, I think you've given a pretty good description of what has happened to our farm system. The 2009-2012 drafts were very college player heavy. They seemed designed to produce organizational depth more than anything else. We did get some high upside players (Kimbrel, Minor, Simmons, Gattis) from those drafts, but that seems to have reflected the randomness of the process more than anything else. Having re-established organizational depth, in the last couple drafts we seem to have shifted back toward taking more high upside high school players.
I don't know if there was an overarching plan to all this, but it does make sense. We have a very talented core that we want to build around and there is nothing wrong with placing an emphasis for a while on finding reliable role players.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
I get annoyed at the mistakes BJ makes out there, but I'm not under any illusions about the magnitude of the defensive drop-off between him and Gattis. It is huge.
I wonder just how special CB defensively though. If he is as good as Molina then it might be interesting to put him out there. Getting Gattis more AB's is always helpful and I really didn't think he was that awful in LF last year. Not anything better than average on a good day but he won't be a statue out there.
Tapate50
Well-known member
Color me in the unimpressed camp as well. I understand fully what our system has produced at the ML level as well, I just don't see much there currently. I do like our last draft for the most part though.
I also think we had a little blip in development that hurts this list as well. With the exception of Peraza and Kubitza (and Reyes), no one on this list is really taking in leaps forward. So it flattens the player development arc a little. Kinda makes the list a little more unimpressive (not as much to get "fired up" about).
I also think we had a little blip in development that hurts this list as well. With the exception of Peraza and Kubitza (and Reyes), no one on this list is really taking in leaps forward. So it flattens the player development arc a little. Kinda makes the list a little more unimpressive (not as much to get "fired up" about).
KB21
Where's My Cup of Coffee?
The trend of taking a lot of college players in the top 10 rounds actually started prior to 2009. I wanted to see if this was a change in philosophy from Roy Clark to Tony DeMacio, and what I noticed was that even in Roy Clark's last few years, we started taking predominately college players in the top 10 rounds. Even in the 2007 draft, 9 of the team's first 12 picks were college players. Jason Heyward and Freedie Freeman were two of the three high school players draft high. The third was Jon Gilmore.
I think the trend towards college players is more of a financial decision than anything else. And it isn't just college players. The Braves draft guys from obscure small places like Frostburg State, Florida Southern, and Florida Tech.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
We're not unusual in that regard. If you look at the proportion of HS players taken round by round by all teams, it is highest in the first round and pretty much drops steadily after that. By the 9th and 10 rounds less than 20% of the picks are high school players. This is for all teams not the Braves. There is a little bit of an exception around the 11th and 12th rounds when the percentage of high schoolers rises, but this reflects the new slotting rules. I do think during the 2010-2011 period we took this tendency to extremes, and have seen a bit of an adjustment back in the last two years, when we have taken high schoolers like Salazar, Stiffler, Manwaring, Hagenmiller, Grosser, Davidson, Fulenchek, Dykstra, Gamez, Dorrian and maybe a couple other late picks we will sign.
cajunrevenge
Well-known member
There is two ways to look at it, by the players in the farm system and by the players produced by the farm system. The Braves prospects have moved so fast that they often dont get full credit for how good the prospect was. Like Alex Wood who blew up after learning the knuckle curve and was in Atlanta before the end of the year so he never ranked highly. If they had left him in the minors he would have been a top 25 prospect. So let me list the players we graduated every year.
2014 - Tommy La Stella, Shae Simmons, David Hale. Ian Thomas and Gus Schlosser could lose rookie status too. Christian Bethancourt looks like he will be called up too.
2013 - Alex Wood, El Oso Blanco, Julio Teheran, the Terd Burglar
2012 - Andrelton Simmons, Luis Avilan, Anthony Varvaro, Randall Delgado, Cory Gearrin, Tyler Pastornicky,
2011 - Craig Kimbrel, Brandon Beachy, Mike Minor, Freddie Freeman
2010 - Jason Heywood, Johnny Venters, Brooks "how do I use a glove?" Conrad
Next year we could graduate Jason Hursh, JR Graham, Cody Martin, Kyle Kubitza, Aaron Northcraft, Elmer Reyes. Our top 2 prospects Peraza and Sims will also be in AA and could be hot shotted to Atlanta if they break out at AA. Also some intriguing relievers like Juan Jamie and Ryan Buchter who could be major league relievers if they ever learn to control their dominate stuff.
Nothing is ever going to compare to when we had Heywood/Freeman/Teheran/Delgado/Vizcaino. I would rather we produce quality players every year than rank highly on prospect lists. Like someone said, the Royals were said to have a historically good farm system a few years ago and it produced next to nothing.
2014 - Tommy La Stella, Shae Simmons, David Hale. Ian Thomas and Gus Schlosser could lose rookie status too. Christian Bethancourt looks like he will be called up too.
2013 - Alex Wood, El Oso Blanco, Julio Teheran, the Terd Burglar
2012 - Andrelton Simmons, Luis Avilan, Anthony Varvaro, Randall Delgado, Cory Gearrin, Tyler Pastornicky,
2011 - Craig Kimbrel, Brandon Beachy, Mike Minor, Freddie Freeman
2010 - Jason Heywood, Johnny Venters, Brooks "how do I use a glove?" Conrad
Next year we could graduate Jason Hursh, JR Graham, Cody Martin, Kyle Kubitza, Aaron Northcraft, Elmer Reyes. Our top 2 prospects Peraza and Sims will also be in AA and could be hot shotted to Atlanta if they break out at AA. Also some intriguing relievers like Juan Jamie and Ryan Buchter who could be major league relievers if they ever learn to control their dominate stuff.
Nothing is ever going to compare to when we had Heywood/Freeman/Teheran/Delgado/Vizcaino. I would rather we produce quality players every year than rank highly on prospect lists. Like someone said, the Royals were said to have a historically good farm system a few years ago and it produced next to nothing.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
I think we have two guys in the minors whose upside is not as appreciated as much as it should be. One is Parsons, who has generated good strikeout rates throughout his minor league career and has been young or age appropriate for his league. The other is Victor Reyes. He's going to fill out and learn to pull the ball. Even though the extra base hits haven't come in numbers yet, he isn't a punch and judy hitter. He hits the ball with a lot of authority to the opposite field already.