Miller market 'hot'

Hawk said:
98 ABs.
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Which is 98 ABs more success than Profar has had... 303 ABs with a .644 OPS... don't sit here and tell me both are comparable in the least. Seager came up and tore the cover off the ball so he actually has something he has proven beyond the minors and hype... .986 OPS in 98 AB's is obviously something Profar never even could approach in his dreams thus far
 
zbhargrove said:
Which is 98 ABs more success than Profar has had... 303 ABs with a .644 OPS... don't sit here and tell me both are comparable in the least. Seager came up and tore the cover off the ball so he actually has something he has proven beyond the minors and hype... .986 OPS in 98 AB's is obviously something Profar never even could approach in his dreams thus far
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I have a question since I'm not much of a numbers guy...

Isn't 303 ABs (much less 98) an awfully small sample size to judge whether someone's a beast or bust whether their name's Seager Profar, or Olivera? I mean, that's less than half a season.
 
smootness said:
You agreed we should be prepared to be disappointed because none of the guys we've traded for have proven themselves yet...but they're prospects still, so of course they haven't proven themselves. Why would that be a reason to be disappointed? If they had all had bad years and regressed as prospects, that's one thing. But that's not what has happened here.

Most of baseball has believed we've gotten the better end of just about every deal we've made so far. Yet we have fans who think these trades are all terrible.

It's exactly why I'm trying to prepare people for the reality that guys like Seager and Urias are untouchable, especially for a guy like Miller. When you don't have a realistic view of the situation, you end up with conclusions that are off-base.
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I'm not saying we should burn the front office at the stake, but there is just as strong a group around here who want to enshrine them for everything they do as the group who wants to burn them for everything they do. If any other team wants to keep their prospects rather than trade them to us then fine, let them keep them. If we get a really good trade offer then let's make it, but the concept that anyone is untouchable it just not true, that's like a offensive formation or strategy in football that just blows everybody away for a year or so, then the other teams figure out how to stop it, or a military code that's unbreakable, until someone figures out how to break it. We've traded prospects that should have been untouchable, some of those trades worked out, some didn't.

I just don't agree that any prospect is untouchable, it's just that another team hasn't yet figured out how to "touch" them. We should be dealing the players we're dealing from a position of strength, if another team doesn't want to give at least a little more than "equal value" then we should keep shopping. I'm not saying be unrealistic, but we should definitely be demanding and until these prospects start kicking some serious butt in the majors I don't, IMO believe we're being quite demanding enough.

By the way, the very same Miller kid we're talking about right now, came over in a trade for a really good player. To me Miller's numbers have been very meh, but I've watched him pitch (on TV) and I'm pretty happy with him, despite his W-L numbers. If those other guys do as well I'll be happy with them, until they do I'm not willing to praise the FO. IMO they need to prove themselves a bit more first. I don't care if someone else feels differently, that's their call. This is my call.
 
clvclv said:
I have a question since I'm not much of a numbers guy...

Isn't 303 ABs (much less 98) an awfully small sample size to judge whether someone's a beast or bust whether their name's Seager Profar, or Olivera? I mean, that's less than half a season.
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I am about to de-rail this train.

C-beth has only had 278 ABs in the majors..

--back on topic though.. Seager has been a beast at every stop. every arrow points to him being a very special player...
 
clvclv said:
I have a question since I'm not much of a numbers guy...

Isn't 303 ABs (much less 98) an awfully small sample size to judge whether someone's a beast or bust whether their name's Seager Profar, or Olivera? I mean, that's less than half a season.
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No the point was comparing their value as prospects... I'm pointing out because of what Seager has done as a prospect in the Majors so far in a small sample size... makes him quite a bit more valuable than Profar when he was a prospect struggling mightily in the Majors. This has nothing to do with who will be the better player. It's all about their prospect value at their peak.
 
clvclv said:
That's the point - there's no one on the Braves' roster that would be part of that "right package".

Please don't preach to me about no one being untouchable. I was the first person here (and most places, really) to point out that Simmons, Teheran, and yes even Freeman could be had. Everyone here thought I was nuts.

Would Seager have been in play if the Dodgers could've gotten Simmons AND Miller? Who knows? But they wouldn't consider dealing him in a package that would involve less in return. To be honest, two of DeLeon, Verdugo, and Barnes would probably be an overpay - I just hope that they'll see the Giants' talks with Greinke, the Cubs talks with Price, and the D-Backs talks with Cueto gaining traction and panic a little.
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I think Miller plus Simmons is exactly the type of trade that would have gotten Seager. The Dodgers are in win-now mode, and add the premier SS in the game as well as a TOR starter for a guy that may not stick at SS long term. The Braves get a young SS that can move to 3B when Albies is ready, or stay at SS and force Albies to 2B.

That would have been a solid trade for both sides.

I can also see something along the lines of Miller for an uber prospect like Seager plus a salary dump like Crawford. That type of move would allow the other team to make a run at one of the premium OF bats on the FA market.
 
Yes. You need over 400 at bats to make decent projections. Absent that performance in AAA with appropriate haircuts is a useful complement. We had a discussion about this in the Adonis Garcia thread.
clvclv said:
I have a question since I'm not much of a numbers guy...

Isn't 303 ABs (much less 98) an awfully small sample size to judge whether someone's a beast or bust whether their name's Seager Profar, or Olivera? I mean, that's less than half a season.
Click to expand...
 
zbhargrove said:
Which is 98 ABs more success than Profar has had... 303 ABs with a .644 OPS... don't sit here and tell me both are comparable in the least. Seager came up and tore the cover off the ball so he actually has something he has proven beyond the minors and hype... .986 OPS in 98 AB's is obviously something Profar never even could approach in his dreams thus far
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They are comparable in the sense that they were both #1 ranked prospects. In the context of what I was trying to explain, I'm fine with that comparison ending there.
 
clvclv said:
And less than 303 MLB ABs, no?
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In the case of all three names mentioned the only truly useful barometers we have to gauge potential Major League impact, as of this very moment, are Minor League contributions and scouting reports. I'm okay putting more weight on Hector's because 2800+ of those ABs on record came in the Cuban League.
 
Hawk said:
They are comparable in the sense that they were both #1 ranked prospects. In the context of what I was trying to explain, I'm fine with that comparison ending there.
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Okay, but I don't think you can just compare them as #1 ranked prospects
 
Pretty interesting tidbit...

Mike Ferrin just mentioned on XM that there are reports that as many as 20 teams have had at least some level of conversation with the Braves concerning Miller to this point.

He also mentioned that while Arizona said no on Pollock (just as the Dodgers said on Seager), they didn't say they weren't open to other possible combinations. They've got several interesting pieces (Lamb or Drury, Inciarte or Socrates Brito, Aaron Blair or Braden Shipley) they could package together that would probably fit even better than the Dodgers do.
 
mqt said:
I don't see why that is. If we trade Miller for some very good prospects, it would be a perfectly acceptable outcome. With our current trajectory, Miller will be getting expensive or hitting FA by the time we're possibly contending.
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This team is only going to compete with proven major league talent. You can't build a team around prospects who may or may not pan out. You need good players in place before you can just rely on a bunch of maybes.
 
I think it's a forgone conclusion Miller will be dealt. Under Hart/Coppy these types of rumors have always lead to a deal, and usually pretty quickly. The only time a deal didn't happen was when Coppy threw his tantrum about Freeman not being dealt, and there have been no such comments about Miller.
 
Jerry Crasnick
@jcrasnick
#Redsox and #Cubs are teams that could match up with Atlanta on a Shelby Miller deal, said person familiar with #Braves thinking.

Jerry Crasnick
@jcrasnick
#Braves are smitten with Jorge Soler, person said. Julio Teheran likely wouldn't get it done. Could Miller spark interest from #Cubs?
 
Hawk said:
Jerry Crasnick
@jcrasnick
#Redsox and #Cubs are teams that could match up with Atlanta on a Shelby Miller deal, said person familiar with #Braves thinking.

Jerry Crasnick
@jcrasnick
#Braves are smitten with Jorge Soler, person said. Julio Teheran likely wouldn't get it done. Could Miller spark interest from #Cubs?
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good lord.. kiss of death...
:JSIDK: Fredi, hold it.. don't you dare ....:FrediPuzzled:..

Damnit Fedi, I told you to relax and think about baseball...:FrediConfident:

:HeywardWut:
 
While I would love to have Soler... Miller straight up for Soler is too much, I think. He definitely struggled quite a bit in his first full year. Some of that had to do with injuries, but he struggled pretty bad even when fully healthy. That's pretty risky for someone as successful as Miller. Baez and Soler would probably be too much and still just as risky. I just hope its more than Soler if we went that route.
 
Hawk said:
Jerry Crasnick
@jcrasnick
#Redsox and #Cubs are teams that could match up with Atlanta on a Shelby Miller deal, said person familiar with #Braves thinking.

Jerry Crasnick
@jcrasnick
#Braves are smitten with Jorge Soler, person said. Julio Teheran likely wouldn't get it done. Could Miller spark interest from #Cubs?
Click to expand...

The interest in Soler is reasonable, but where would he, Markakis and Olivera play? Too bad Olivera couldn't stick at 3B.
 
Hawk said:
Jerry Crasnick
@jcrasnick
#Redsox and #Cubs are teams that could match up with Atlanta on a Shelby Miller deal, said person familiar with #Braves thinking.

Jerry Crasnick
@jcrasnick
#Braves are smitten with Jorge Soler, person said. Julio Teheran likely wouldn't get it done. Could Miller spark interest from #Cubs?
Click to expand...

It wouldn't?

Hm. Not sure I'd be interested in much more.
 
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