Minor league thread

Newk might have gotten lucky to start or whatever. But he didn’t lose anything quickly. He had the same issues in the bigs as he did in the minors. He sucked the day we got him and never got better. Call him lucky for half a season or more. Fine. But he sucked.
 
zbhargrove said:
That’s all fine and dandy but even when he was “good” his peripherals were clear he was very lucky and not actually good
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Moving the goalpost I see.


FIP in 4.15 range was pretty damn solid, and right in the range you would expect a MOR pitcher to be in.

It was not a few lucky starts. He was pretty good for a couple years, then he declined pretty rapidly as control issues got worse. Not the first pitcher that happened to and it won't be last.
 
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In 2017 and 2018 Newcomb combined for 50 starts and 264 innings. He had a 4.06 ERA and 4.16 FIP. This was at a time when the league average for starters was 4.34 ERA and 4.35 FIP (funny how those 2 line up with a significant sample size). He was spectacularly mediocre and then bottomed out like a lot of SP with ****ty control do.
 
Carp said:
Moving the goalpost I see.


FIP in 4.15 range was pretty damn solid, and right in the range you would expect a MOR pitcher to be in.

It was not a few lucky starts. He was pretty good for a couple years, then he declined pretty rapidly as control issues got worse. Not the first pitcher that happened to and it won't be last.
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I didn’t move any goal posts. I was talking about his peripherals and how they translated into luck the whole time. He was average at best and never “pretty good”
 
In 2018, he had a .297 xwoba and 3.71 xERA. For reference, Kyle wright this season has a .297 xwoba and 3.19 xera

ETA... it's so strange brave fans can't admit that newcomb was good in 2018. The same ones brag on wright this season when they have the exact same xwoba, and Sean did it over a full season
 
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I can't believe we are still talking about Newk being good over 170 innings 5 years ago. It is funny that somehow 18 and 19 were his best years, and those just so happened to be his best BAbip years by .50 plus points. He still walked 4 + per 9 and had a whip of 1.3+ both years.

I am sorry, cherry pick whatever you want.. but Newk threw high and away to righties since we got him from the Angels. He never fixed that.. so him declining was him just going back to what/who he really was. Him having a goodish run over 220 innings with the best balls in play luck of his career won't convince me otherwise.

Newk sucked in the minors, he sucked in the majors... nothing more.. nothing less..
 
msstate7 said:
In 2018, he had a .297 xwoba and 3.71 xERA. For reference, Kyle wright this season has a .297 xwoba and 3.19 xera

ETA... it's so strange brave fans can't admit that newcomb was good in 2018. The same ones brag on wright this season when they have the exact same xwoba, and Sean did it over a full season
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Just curious about what you mean when using this all the time - you know that abbreviation stands for Estimated Time of Arrival, right?
 
clvclv said:
Just curious about what you mean when using this all the time - you know that abbreviation stands for Estimated Time of Arrival, right?
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thanks, I didn't know what ETA meant either. In this context.. but kids these days have abbreviations for a lot more than I can keep up with. Mine are always dropping new ones on me and I am like 'what the heck are you talking about'...


ETA... just urban dictionary'd it and it means Edit to Add.. common amoung bloggers.
 
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bravesfanMatt said:
thanks, I didn't know what ETA meant either. In this context.. but kids these days have abbreviations for a lot more than I can keep up with. Mine are always dropping new ones on me and I am like 'what the heck are you talking about'...


ETA... just urban dictionary'd it and it means Edit to Add.. common amoung bloggers.
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I suppose I'm a common blogger
 
bravesfanMatt said:
thanks, I didn't know what ETA meant either. In this context.. but kids these days have abbreviations for a lot more than I can keep up with. Mine are always dropping new ones on me and I am like 'what the heck are you talking about'...


ETA... just urban dictionary'd it and it means Edit to Add.. common amoung bloggers.
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Hard to believe us old codgers don't consult the Urban Dictionary, eh?

I'm not sure I've ever looked for it, and I'm not real sure I ever would to be honest.
 
msstate7 said:
In 2018, he had a .297 xwoba and 3.71 xERA. For reference, Kyle wright this season has a .297 xwoba and 3.19 xera

ETA... it's so strange brave fans can't admit that newcomb was good in 2018. The same ones brag on wright this season when they have the exact same xwoba, and Sean did it over a full season
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The key difference here is xwOBACON. expected WOBA on contact. Newcomb had surprisingly weak contact on balls put in play against him (especially the first part of the season). So that overall lowered his xwOBA that FIP for example wouldn't take into consideration. And it caused a season wide argument by the usual suspects. Some believed Newk had a unique talent in generating weak and those who figured it was just a matter of time.

But it's been pretty much proven that allowing weak contact isn't a skill: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/what-statcast-reveals-about-contact-management-as-a-pitcher-skill/

xwOBA for Newcomb in 2018 was fools gold. And it didn't even help him that much with actual results since his control was so ****ing awful.


Wright on the other hand has a league average xwOBACON. It's what you would expect. His xwOBA is a result of actual improvement across the board. Whether it continues is hard to say but everything about his season so far is as real as it gets.
 
msstate7 said:
In 2018, he had a .297 xwoba and 3.71 xERA. For reference, Kyle wright this season has a .297 xwoba and 3.19 xera

ETA... it's so strange brave fans can't admit that newcomb was good in 2018. The same ones brag on wright this season when they have the exact same xwoba, and Sean did it over a full season
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Yeah I guess when you cherry pick some stats you can squint and he can look good. The fact remains that he was actually still about average at his best.
 
And more than anything, the tell tale sign for Newcomb being average to bad was always the walk rate. A 4+ per 9 inning walk rate is inviting disaster and not good. He was lucky in 2018. Maybe he wasn’t “bad” but he was certainly average at best.
 
It is hereby resolved Newk (no longer a Brave and no longer a prospect) was pretty average with good luck for a season and a half four years ago and is no longer worth discussing?

Someone give me a second.
 
OcalaBrave said:
It is hereby resolved Newk (no longer a Brave and no longer a prospect) was pretty average with good luck for a season and a half four years ago and is no longer worth discussing?

Someone give me a second.
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What are your thoughts on the Marte for Renteria trade?
 
zbhargrove said:
Yeah I guess when you cherry pick some stats you can squint and he can look good. The fact remains that he was actually still about average at his best.
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He was at .306 xwoba in 2019. So for 2 seasons (232.1 ip), he was better than avg in xwoba. Was it luck? Maybe, but for those 2 seasons, he was better than avg... good, if you will
 
msstate7 said:
He was at .306 xwoba in 2019. So for 2 seasons (232.1 ip), he was better than avg in xwoba. Was it luck? Maybe, but for those 2 seasons, he was better than avg... good, if you will
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Yeah but he was walking over 4 per 9… that tells me everything. Show me how many good starters average over 4 walks per 9… I’ll wait.
 
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