Minors Results 8-26

Jaw

Jaw

It's OVER 5,000!
GCL Braves win 7-6
Paolini 1-6, now hitting .191 with a .554 OPS
Grissom 1-4, BB, SF, 3 RBI, .296/.779 and his 10th error
Backstrom 3-4, BB, .299/.860
Florentino 1-1, HR, 3 RBI
Rodriguez 4.1 IP, 0 H, 2 BB, 2 K

Firefrogs win 5-4
Delgado 2-4
Lugbauer 2-5, 2 2B
Josephina 2-4 (highest OPS in lineup at .660)
Soria 3-4
Bacon and Deal identical box scores of 2 IP, 1 H, 3 K

Danville wins 3-1
Milligan 1-4, SB (12), .249/.676
Philip 0-4, .195/.581
Parker 1-3, HR, .220/.636
Berne 3-4, .389/.980
Segal 2.2 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 7 K
Gordon 2 IP, 1 H, BB, 2 K

Rome wins 1-0
Dean 1-4, SB (45), .289/.830
Ball 0-4, 4 K, .339/.879
Langeliers 1-4, .246/.635
Higginbotham 2 IP, 2 H, 2 BB, 3 K

Gwinnett gets curbstomped 17-7
Waters 2-6, 2B, 2 K, .309/.781
Camargo 3-4, K, BB, .500/1.210
Riley 2-5, K, .302/1.048
Jackson 2-5, 2B, HR (26), .227/.834
Pache 2-5, K, 2B, K, .257/.664
Touki 1.1 IP, 7 H, 7 ER, 2 BB, 2 K
Weigel 1.2 IP, 0 H, 1 ER, BB, 2 K
Minter 1.1 IP, 5 H, 4 ER, K

Mississippi postponed
 
Langeliers has really turned it on recently which is really nice to see. Pache has really started playing better in Gwinnett too
 
Waters' k/bb numbers are getting better...
33.0/9.9. Obviously 33.0 isn't good, but it's dropping... last 9 games, 11 k in 41 PA, 26.8%
 
msstate7 said:
Waters' k/bb numbers are getting better...
33.0/9.9. Obviously 33.0 isn't good, but it's dropping... last 9 games, 11 k in 41 PA, 26.8%
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I like to see a K rate of 25 or less out of hitting prospects in AAA. If its over 25 that translates to 30 or so in the majors. And its very hard (not impossible but very hard) to be a productive major league player if your K rate is 30 or higher.

I also don't think you can just look at the "good" data. Players get hot and cold. But that's who they are. So you have to count all of it when evaluating if a player has a chance to be productive in the majors. Of course young players improve, so you need some sort of rule about how far back you need to go. But I would say 400 PAs strikes a good balance between the need for a decent sample while not obscuring the possibility a player has improved.
 
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nsacpi said:
I like to see a K rate of 25 or less out of hitting prospects in AAA. If its over 25 that translates to 30 or so in the majors. And its very hard (not impossible but very hard) to be a productive major league player if your K rate is 30 or higher.
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Steamer projects him at 28.2 right now
 
msstate7 said:
Steamer projects him at 28.2 right now
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28.2 in the majors is not consistent with 30+ in AAA. Nor is it consistent with the 26.7 K rate in AA this year. The 26.7 in AA is consistent with about 32 in the majors.

He's going to improve. But some of that improvement needs to happen in AAA.
 
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nsacpi said:
I like to see a K rate of 25 or less out of hitting prospects in AAA. If its over 25 that translates to 30 or so in the majors. And its very hard (not impossible but very hard) to be a productive major league player if your K rate is 30 or higher.

I also don't think you can just look at the "good" data. Players get hot and cold. But that's who they are. So you have to count all of it when evaluating if a player has a chance to be productive in the majors.
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If he had 300 PA in AAA and I picked 41 PA, yeah, that would be selective data. He has 91 PA in AAA, and I used his last 41. I think that's totally fair considering he just jumped a level
 
Waters is super young. not shocking to see his K numbers that high. he isn't anywhere near MLB ready tho.
 
msstate7 said:
If he had 300 PA in AAA and I picked 41 PA, yeah, that would be selective data. He has 91 PA in AAA, and I used his last 41. I think that's totally fair considering he just jumped a level
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one man's "totally fair" is another man's cherry picking
 
msstate7 said:
If he had 300 PA in AAA and I picked 41 PA, yeah, that would be selective data. He has 91 PA in AAA, and I used his last 41. I think that's totally fair considering he just jumped a level
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his last 41 dropping down to 26.8 doesn't mean anything tho. it's too small a sample and can change quickly with one bad game. a game with 4 ABs and 2 Ks brings it back up to 29%. it just isn't indicative of any kind of trend yet.
 
Super said:
that is not at all what he said...
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I would at this stage look at his last 400 PAs, which would have to include some data in AA. But AA data require a different adjustment than AAA data to get major league equivalents.

Both his AAA and AA strikeout rate suggest he would strike out more than 30% of the time at the major league level. He is young and will improve. But some of that improvement needs to happen in AAA.
 
msstate7 said:
Well he said steamer was wrong, right?
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steamer is basing their "projection" on one PA. it means nothing.
Water has legit K issues. it's extremely doubtful he could K 27% of the time between AA and AAA and then come to the MLB and K 28% of the time at 20 years old. we could pull all kinds of numbers.
 
msstate7 said:
So what you saying, his first 91 PA in AAA at age 20 is all you need to project he will be a 30+% k guy?
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Nope. I would use his 400 most recent PAs, which would include some AA data. Either way he projects to be a 30+ K rate guy if promoted this year to the majors. He could do better or worse. But that's what his minor league numbers indicate. This is not a projection of what he will be in the majors in 2021. He is going to improve.
 
i went to that Gwinnett game

Touki and Minter looked like pure ****
 
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ETA... that was rude.

I'm obviously a waters' fan boy, so I see what I wanna see... I do think waters is our best hitting prospect in the minors at the moment.
 
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