MLB Trade Deadline Discussion

weso1 said:
Sox could compete next year depending on their offseason moves. A year of Cespedes for 2 months of Lester in and of itself is an even deal for the Sox. The two picks are icing on the cake. Sox don't see a lot of value in spending a bunch of money on a 31 year old starter. I can see their argument.
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So they spend it on a 30 year old OF or let him walk after 1.25 seasons with them?

How are the Red Sox going to compete? They have no starting pitching. Their OF is pathetic. They have no catcher.
 
Whoever pays Lester what he wants is going to regret it. He can be great at times but is really inconsistent year to year. Will probably sign with the yankees.
 
gilesfan said:
Boston gets Cespedes for 1 year at what costs? And now they are pressured to sign Cespedes for a longer deal, which I'm sure he will want and get some crazy 15 million dollar a year contract or something insane like that. So whether Lester comes back to the Sox or not, why wouldn't you take prospects that are give you the chance to improve over the long haul?
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Because Cespedes is a known quantity who's still fairly young. Boston has tons of money... prospects are a crapshoot, no matter how hyped they are... see your pretty boys, Strasburg and Harper.
 
gilesfan said:
So they spend it on a 30 year old OF or let him walk after 1.25 seasons with them?

How are the Red Sox going to compete? They have no starting pitching. Their OF is pathetic. They have no catcher.
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They have money. Should be able to go out and try and get some pieces. Anything can happen in the offseason. They clearly want to be competitive next season.

Could potentially trade Cespedes next season as well if they don't compete.
 
zbhargrove said:
I don't know, the fact that he said he'd like to sign back with them? lol... look there are plenty of reports, but the fact is, in baseball... we have zero idea about actual offer numbers or negotiations.
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Lol that's funny, a player saying he will resign if traded....lets believe that! How many times has that happened? Mike Bordick.....anyone else? Not to mention most of the "insiders" saying it was a PR move and Lester is actually extremely bitter towards the front office about the low ball offers.

Anyway, yes, lets do this bet. Avatar bet or what?
 
BRule said:
What are the chances the comp pick is as good as Lester? MLB draft is a needle in haystack venture.....Sox are going to be bad next year and Ces is gone after that, the trade just makes no sense. Why not trade Lester for prospect, if teams won't give you a top 2 prospect then aim lower. Sox are obviously rebuilding and won't compete this year or next, Ces does nothing to help them.

Red Sox are being cheap bastards, if you aren't going to give Lester 120 mil who the hell are you going to pay? Lester easily gets over 120 on open market, plus they only offered him 90 mil? Total slap in the face
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The expected surplus value of draft picks has been calculated for various points in the draft. The pick received by the Red Sox (after the second round) from the A's has an expected surplus value of about 1 WAR.

It is worth noting that if the Red Sox had held on to Lester and lost him via free agency, they would have gotten a pick at the end of the first round. That pick has an expected surplus value of about 2 WAR.

Cespedes' expected surplus value over the rest of his contract is about 3 WAR. So net the Red Sox are picking up about 2 WAR by giving up Gomes and Lester (two players who would have been free agents after this year). It is a nice amount of value to pick up for those two. Good job by Cherington.

There is also a chance they can get a draft pick when Cespedes hits free agency. That would be a bonus.
 
nsacpi said:
The expected surplus value of draft picks has been calculated for various points in the draft. The pick received by the Red Sox (after the second round) from the A's has an expected surplus value of about 1 WAR.

It is worth noting that if the Red Sox had held on to Lester and lost him via free agency, they would have gotten a pick at the end of the first round. That pick has an expected surplus value of about 2 WAR.

Cespedes' expected surplus value over the rest of his contract is about 3 WAR. So net the Red Sox are picking up about 2 WAR by giving up Gomes and Lester (two players who would have been free agents after this year). It is a nice amount of value to pick up for those two. Good job by Cherington.
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Or they just could have paid their LH Ace who was willing to take a "home-town discount"
 
zbhargrove said:
Because Cespedes is a known quantity who's still fairly young. Boston has tons of money... prospects are a crapshoot, no matter how hyped they are... see your pretty boys, Strasburg and Harper.
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Cespedes is 28 and is around a .300 OBP the last 2 years.

I'm not sure what the comment on Strasburg and Harper is in terms of prospects being hyped. Those guys are pretty good, no?
 
weso1 said:
They have money. Should be able to go out and try and get some pieces. Anything can happen in the offseason. They clearly want to be competitive next season.

Could potentially trade Cespedes next season as well if they don't compete.
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They will have to get a lot of pieces. Like several starting pitchers just to start.
 
BRule said:
Or they just could have paid their LH Ace who was willing to take a "home-town discount"
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Or use that money on a couple of good starters this offseason rather than paying for what a 31 year old has done in the past.
 
BRule said:
Lol that's funny, a player saying he will resign if traded....lets believe that! How many times has that happened? Mike Bordick.....anyone else? Not to mention most of the "insiders" saying it was a PR move and Lester is actually extremely bitter towards the front office about the low ball offers.

Anyway, yes, lets do this bet. Avatar bet or what?
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Lol... that's not a very equal bet when you have 29 teams that can sign him and for me to win, I only have 1 team he can sign with. It's happened more than Bordick... but I can't remember specifics now. I might be wrong, but still don't think its a bad deal for a team who has as much money as the Sox. If you can afford him and your OF is terrible, Ces is a known quantity and a huge upgrade. Lester is finally good this year after a stretch of mediocre years... I do not consider him a can't miss ace.
 
gilesfan said:
Cespedes is 28 and is around a .300 OBP the last 2 years.

I'm not sure what the comment on Strasburg and Harper is in terms of prospects being hyped. Those guys are pretty good, no?
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The jury is still out on both, actually... but compared to their hype?? Absolutely not... they are nowhere near close. Harper can't stay healthy and Stras is a solid 2 or 3, but far from an ace.
 
50PoundHead said:
Looks like a decent deal for both sides with a slight tilt toward the Red Sox.
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I think it's clear that the Sox got more value in this trade than the A's are getting. You can argue the externalities all you want, but you can't ignore the math.
 
Hell, I'd be happy if all Wren did is somehow drug someone to take on BJ and the rest of his contract at the deadline and start all over and have some funds available going into 2015 to plug in some holes and build a better more competitive team that is a legit contender, because this team is not. But that ain't happening.
 
zbhargrove said:
Wouldn't expect a Washington homer to actually look at the stats objectively...
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Like since 2010 when Stras entered league:

3.11 ERA (13th in MLB)
2.80 FIP (4th in MLB)
2.76 xFIP (1st in MLB)

Those stats or are you looking for others?
 
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