Next Move?

dak said:
I agree with you. Bowman is referencing the amount of $ we started with, not what we have currently. However, those two numbers aren't much different. We gained $5.5m in 2016 by moving Maybin. We added $500k in Krol, and $3m in AJP. So we have $2m more than whatever our budget was to start with.
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Yes but does that include the non-tendering of Minor? Another $5.6M

The thing is, $20M is no where near enough to even begin thinking about fixing all the problem areas on this team to even make it better than it was last year, given the continuing moves of this offseason, much less set the team up for success in years beyond 2016. It's looking more and more like the FO is going to go half-a**ed rebuild rather than to go all in and build from the ground up. It's like a house with a bad foundation - tearing down the house but building right on top of the same bad foundation simply because the cost seems too high to do it right...
 
Horsehide Harry said:
Yes but does that include the non-tendering of Minor? Another $5.6M

The thing is, $20M is no where near enough to even begin thinking about fixing all the problem areas on this team to even make it better than it was last year, given the continuing moves of this offseason, much less set the team up for success in years beyond 2016. It's looking more and more like the FO is going to go half-a**ed rebuild rather than to go all in and build from the ground up. It's like a house with a bad foundation - tearing down the house but building right on top of the same bad foundation simply because the cost seems too high to do it right...
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In their defense they had to jettison CJ last year and take on Swisher and Bourn and their huge salaries. They shouldn't be god awful, but they come off the books next year I think. That's the salary number to keep in mind is the 2017 payroll and beyond. Right now, I can't think of a single reason to spend a dime on this team. Just bring up the AAA squad and play for the no 1 pick.
 
Tapate50 said:
In their defense they had to jettison CJ last year and take on Swisher and Bourn and their huge salaries. They shouldn't be god awful, but they come off the books next year I think. That's the salary number to keep in mind is the 2017 payroll and beyond. Right now, I can't think of a single reason to spend a dime on this team. Just bring up the AAA squad and play for the no 1 pick.
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Exactly. Why in the world would spending money this offseason equate with a more complete rebuild?
 
smootness said:
Exactly. Why in the world would spending money this offseason equate with a more complete rebuild?
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Because the guys you sign can be traded at the deadline for more prospects. A guy like Latos could be signed to a 1 year deal, and if he proves healthy and effective, could be given a QO and give the Braves a draft pick. Signing a proven MOR guy like Leake to a 4-5 year deal could allow the Braves to trade away a couple of their non-elite pitching prospects for a bat.

This FA market is loaded, especially compared to what will be available next offseason. No sense in outbidding other teams for any player right now, but if a couple bargains are sitting out there in January it would be wise to grab them. Add talent any way you can at this point, including bargain FAs.
 
Enscheff said:
Because the guys you sign can be traded at the deadline for more prospects. A guy like Latos could be signed to a 1 year deal, and if he proves healthy and effective, could be given a QO and give the Braves a draft pick. Signing a proven MOR guy like Leake to a 4-5 year deal could allow the Braves to trade away a couple of their non-elite pitching prospects for a bat.

This FA market is loaded, especially compared to what will be available next offseason. No sense in outbidding other teams for any player right now, but if a couple bargains are sitting out there in January it would be wise to grab them. Add talent any way you can at this point, including bargain FAs.
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Exactly. You buy any stock you think will rebound. I'd look at guys like Feliz and Parnell for the pen.
 
At some point the Braves are actually going to have to roster some major league quality players. At least one would think so. Let's just continue the trend of trading away players for mid level prospects that have a small chance of ever being successful in the majors.
 
Found this nugget interesting. From DOB's extended notes with his interview with Coppy immediately following the Simba trade:

“We had a shot to trade a player this past season for a guy who’s now ranked as a top-50 prospect in the game, and that player (whom the Braves were going to trade) ended up getting hurt. And by the time we tried to make the trade, that prospect had shot up the charts and they wouldn’t even talk about the player.
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http://atlantabraves.blog.ajc.com/2...es-trade-simmons-for-more-pitching-prospects/

Grilli? In which case, the sign a veteran and "flip them for a Top 50 prospect" mantra would have come true... (if you believe him, that is).
 
Enscheff said:
Because the guys you sign can be traded at the deadline for more prospects. A guy like Latos could be signed to a 1 year deal, and if he proves healthy and effective, could be given a QO and give the Braves a draft pick. Signing a proven MOR guy like Leake to a 4-5 year deal could allow the Braves to trade away a couple of their non-elite pitching prospects for a bat.

This FA market is loaded, especially compared to what will be available next offseason. No sense in outbidding other teams for any player right now, but if a couple bargains are sitting out there in January it would be wise to grab them. Add talent any way you can at this point, including bargain FAs.
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I wouldn't personally advocate for a Leake signing - there's going to be enough of a market for him and those other second-tier starters (Samaedzija/Lackey/Kennedy/Kazmir/Gallardo/Fister/Happ/Iwakuma/Lincecum/Colby Lewis) that you're still more than likely going to have to pony up 3-4 years at $10+ million per to get.

We all understand the near-impossibility of correctly pinning the Braves' budget down. but I've updated my spreadsheet following the Maybin deal and now have the current number at $88,100,000 - that includes all attainable bonuses (Pierzynski's in particular) and Toscano's money included. I treat the Maybin deal is a wash - the Angels sent us the $2,500,000 that we gave the Tigers when we got Aybar.

Given that - I'd assume the absolute max we've got left is $31,900,000 (to fall under Hart's $120 million ceiling he mentioned last winter). I know it's not "sexy", but I honestly do think you could put a much more competitive team on the field than we had last season by just picking up the crumbs and signing guys to one year deals with every intention of trading them come July.

1/2.) Sign Latos and Bartolo Colon for $8 million each. Give Folty and Banuelos until the deadline to force their way into the rotation from Gwinnett and if they don't use them as big pen upgrades moving forward. Perez and/or Weber go to the pen and Gant joins Folty, Banuelos, Sims and Jenkins in Gwinnett's rotation to begin the season.

Cost: $16 million - leaves you $15,900,000.

3/4.) Re-sign KJ for $4 million. Probably unfair to expect him to do what he did when he was here last year, but you can always hope. If Garcia and Olivera flop, you've got a quality option for a bat behind them.

Cost: $4 million - leaves you $11.9 million.

5/6.) Sign EOF and Oliver Perez for $3 million each. Two lefties you could likely move at the deadline.

Cost: $6 million - leaves you $5.9 million.

Opening Day Roster

RF- Markakis, SS- Aybar, 1B- Freeman, C- Pierzynski, LF- Olivera, 2B- Peterson, 3B- Garcia, CF- Bourn

Bench: C- Bethancourt, 2B/SS/3B- Castro, 1B/2B/3B/LF- Johnson, LF/RF/1B- Swisher, CF- Perez/Smith

Rotation: Miller/Teheran/Colon/Wisler/Latos

Pen: Grilli/Vizcaino/O. Perez/Withrow/EOF/Perez or Weber/Winkler (with Simmons when healthy, Folty, and Banuelos to replace traded or struggling guys)
 
You may not be too far off. The latest MLB.com article has the Braves targeting Madsen, Soria and Sipp for the BP (pretty good), KJ or Gordon Beckham for 3B (barf), and guys like Colon or Young for the rotation (yawn).

I think Latos is the best buy low candidate of this offseason, so I would like to see the Braves roll the dice on him. Of course, I said the same thing about Masterson last offseason, and he turned out to be a huge waste of $10M...so what do I know?
 
Enscheff said:
You may not be too far off. The latest MLB.com article has the Braves targeting Madsen, Soria and Sipp for the BP (pretty good), KJ or Gordon Beckham for 3B (barf), and guys like Colon or Young for the rotation (yawn).

I think Latos is the best buy low candidate of this offseason, so I would like to see the Braves roll the dice on him. Of course, I said the same thing about Masterson last offseason, and he turned out to be a huge waste of $10M...so what do I know?
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Would give Coppy a good mix of experienced guys to deal - Grilli/Colon/Latos/KJ/Pierzynski/Oliver Perez/EOF.

Again, not sexy, but I'd think you could do worse than that - and if Latos or Grilli had a good (and healthy) season, you could conceivably get a Top 100 prospect for them. (Conceivably being the operative word, of course.)
 
clvclv said:
I wouldn't personally advocate for a Leake signing - there's going to be enough of a market for him and those other second-tier starters (Samaedzija/Lackey/Kennedy/Kazmir/Gallardo/Fister/Happ/Iwakuma/Lincecum/Colby Lewis) that you're still more than likely going to have to pony up 3-4 years at $10+ million per to get.

We all understand the near-impossibility of correctly pinning the Braves' budget down. but I've updated my spreadsheet following the Maybin deal and now have the current number at $88,100,000 - that includes all attainable bonuses (Pierzynski's in particular) and Toscano's money included. I treat the Maybin deal is a wash - the Angels sent us the $2,500,000 that we gave the Tigers when we got Aybar.

Given that - I'd assume the absolute max we've got left is $31,900,000 (to fall under Hart's $120 million ceiling he mentioned last winter). I know it's not "sexy", but I honestly do think you could put a much more competitive team on the field than we had last season by just picking up the crumbs and signing guys to one year deals with every intention of trading them come July.

1/2.) Sign Latos and Bartolo Colon for $8 million each. Give Folty and Banuelos until the deadline to force their way into the rotation from Gwinnett and if they don't use them as big pen upgrades moving forward. Perez and/or Weber go to the pen and Gant joins Folty, Banuelos, Sims and Jenkins in Gwinnett's rotation to begin the season.
Cost: $16 million - leaves you $15,900,000.

3/4.) Re-sign KJ for $4 million. Probably unfair to expect him to do what he did when he was here last year, but you can always hope. If Garcia and Olivera flop, you've got a quality option for a bat behind them.
Cost: $4 million - leaves you $11.9 million.

5/6.) Sign EOF and Oliver Perez for $3 million each. Two lefties you could likely move at the deadline.
Cost: $6 million - leaves you $5.9 million.

Opening Day Roster

RF- Markakis, SS- Aybar, 1B- Freeman, C- Pierzynski, LF- Olivera, 2B- Peterson, 3B- Garcia, CF- Bourn

Bench: C- Bethancourt, 2B/SS/3B- Castro, 1B/2B/3B/LF- Johnson, LF/RF/1B- Swisher, CF- Perez/Smith

Rotation: Miller/Teheran/Colon/Wisler/Latos

Pen: Grilli/Vizcaino/O. Perez/Withrow/EOF/Perez or Weber/Winkler (with Simmons when healthy, Folty, and Banuelos to replace traded or struggling guys)
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IMO, that is what they will probably do but nowhere near what they should do. It doesn't move the needle for 2017 and beyond any if at all and likely just prolongs any climb out of the cellar.

That lineup is still horrible. Outside of Freeman and the hail mary hope of Olivera there is no power. Unless Bourn rebounds to 2012 or so, you have no lead off and even if he does, you can't play him enough to trigger his option. You may get a tick of an increase in productivity out of Markakis (dubious) and Aybar which will likely be offset by the cratering of AJ and the defensive loss of Simmons. The bench is a shambles.

The rotation would require a huge rebound from Latos with incremental improvement from Teheran and marking time from Miller to be any better than what the Braves had last year with Wood. Colon is a ticking time bomb and would be worth nothing on the trade market even if he performs OK.

The pen would be dependent on rebounds from injured players and hopeful career years out of guys who are at the end of their career.

Don't get me wrong, I am certainly not being critical of you for posting that this is what MIGHT happen, because I am beginning to think that it is what the FO will do. But it's such a waste. The team above is without doubt a less than .500 team even if everything goes perfectly. So, why go down that path at all?

My preference is to a complete tear down and rebuild which at least allows you to line up your assets moving forward and gain controllable, inexpensive talent moving forward. To me, a rebuild is like hunting fast prey. You don't aim where the prey is now. You aim where it will be and all actions are made in effort to hit the bulls eye on where it will be.

Reloading doesn't work unless you have tons of money to spend on an as needed basis. The Braves don't have that. Once they committed to the rebuild, something I completely endorse, they needed to fully commit not dip a toe in to check the temperature of the water. That's how years in the wilderness gets started.
 
The idea isn't to sign those guys to be better in 2016/2017, the idea is to sign them so they can be flipped at the deadline.

The Cubs are the most interesting potential trade partner, in my opinion. The have young hitters in Soler and Baez that the Braves covet, and they have a need for a pitcher like Miller or Teheran. They also have a bad contract in Castro that could be lumped in a trade to lessen the return on the Braves side. While Castro has his issues, the Braves certainly have a need at 2B and SS (after Aybar leaves, or they could trade Aybar).

What if the Cubs agreed to something like Soler or Baez plus Castro for Miller plus Swisher? Soler or Baez immediately slot into the starting lineup, and Castro can hold down 2B and/or SS until Albies is ready. Castro is a condidate to improve, and at worst he is equal to Peterson. The Cubs get their cheap #2 starter, and swap a long bad contract for a short bad contract. In this scenario Aybar could even be traded to let Castro hold down SS until Albies is ready.

How about Baez plus Soler plus Castro for Miller plus a prospect? The Braves take on a bad contract and give up a TOR arm for the rights to 2 potential impact bats.

So many potential fits with the Cubs...
 
Enscheff said:
The idea isn't to sign those guys to be better in 2016/2017, the idea is to sign them so they can be flipped at the deadline.
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BUT, if that is the case why not sign ONE good player with significant value to flip at the deadline as opposed to signing several that will likely only bring you back the likes of Gant and/or Whelan who the Braves already have enough of?

OR, why not use the money to take on a bad contract if it means getting a top prospect in return? I'm thinking Garza and Phillips from the Brewers for CB if the Braves take all of Garza's money. One Phillips is probably worth 10 Whelans.
 
Horsehide Harry said:
BUT, if that is the case why not sign ONE good player with significant value to flip at the deadline as opposed to signing several that will likely only bring you back the likes of Gant and/or Whelan who the Braves already have enough of?

OR, why not use the money to take on a bad contract if it means getting a top prospect in return? I'm thinking Garza and Phillips from the Brewers for CB if the Braves take all of Garza's money. One Phillips is probably worth 10 Whelans.
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I tend to agree with you, but eventually you can take some of that quantity and flip to quality. There will be another team that is selling a high profile player. maybe not young but impact.. like we did with Jhey/Upton/Kimbrel/Simmons.. and we will have the talent and depth to send some of ours for one of those. That may be riskier in the scheme of things.. but it is an option. But I tend to agree with you that we need a complete tear down and target 18 or 19 as competitive. trade Miller or Julio and then Freeman to get our system as a top 1 or 2 system out there. Then hit the international market hard and have the next two drafts getting quality. That would make our system stocked and ready to produce talent for 2018 and then many years to come..I hate this "I want to be competitive next year" crap...
 
Horsehide Harry said:
BUT, if that is the case why not sign ONE good player with significant value to flip at the deadline as opposed to signing several that will likely only bring you back the likes of Gant and/or Whelan who the Braves already have enough of?

OR, why not use the money to take on a bad contract if it means getting a top prospect in return? I'm thinking Garza and Phillips from the Brewers for CB if the Braves take all of Garza's money. One Phillips is probably worth 10 Whelans.
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Yeah, just like the Touki trade. Problem is we have no idea whether or not another team will ever make a move like that again. The DBacks were the butt of quite a few jokes over that trade, so I don't see those types of deals being commonplace anymore.

The problem with signing a GOOD player in FA is that a guy with a market value (or likely worse) contract won't be very useful as a trade chip. For example, if the Braves sign Gordon for 5/100, why would anyone trade much of a prospect for him when they could have signed him for that deal themselves? In that case the Braves take on ALL the risk and still have very limited potential reward.

The key is signing guys like Latos that come with low risk and have a chance for a big reward. Guys like KJ certainly come with minimal reward, but the risk is bascially zero as well.
 
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