Nick Markakis, Greek God of Exit Velocity

57Brave said:
Franchise player ?
As much as I enjoyed Heyward and wanted him to be a franchise player -- he just wasn't,isn't or ever going to be.
A nice every day player but franchise - in the league of Trout,Harper. Yadir,Posey,

unless of course you were talking about this guy:
http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/5970/melvin-upton-jr.
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http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4940&position=OF#fielding

Here is why. Above is Heyward's Fangraphs page. fWAR says he's a 6.0 WAR player, and about half of that is defensive value. As an aside, I believe Heyward is the best defensive right fielder in baseball.

If you ignore dWAR and look down the page instead at the Inside Edge fielding stats, they've characterized every chance he has in RF in their measurement system. Helpfully, they give you raw data on how many chances that is.

The money shot is this - in the universe of chances Jason Heyward had last year, he converted 291 of them. An average fielder would have made 283 of them.

That means that at $8m per WAR, you're saying those 8 catches are worth $24,000,000.

And that, my friends, is the folly of using WAR as shorthand.
 
WAR is just another tool in the analytic toolbox. no more or less.

I loved watching Heyward but the eye test tells me his overall game is a click or two above ordinary.
His defense will subside with age, his offense to me has proven to be pedestrian (2014)

I thought the Nats overpaid for Jason Werth --Werth is a nice player.
Without looking at the stats and getting too far into the weeds - I see Heywards career along the lines of Werth's

Not too shabby - but not franchise level either.

The series vs the Dodgers that posters keep pounding over Fredi G's head - my memory still sees Puig running around the bases on a routine single and JHey standing in the CF holding the ball.
Watching that game I thought the Dodgers won that series on that play.
1st inning of the 1st game if I remember right
 
GovClintonTyree said:
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4940&position=OF#fielding

Here is why. Above is Heyward's Fangraphs page. fWAR says he's a 6.0 WAR player, and about half of that is defensive value. As an aside, I believe Heyward is the best defensive right fielder in baseball.

If you ignore dWAR and look down the page instead at the Inside Edge fielding stats, they've characterized every chance he has in RF in their measurement system. Helpfully, they give you raw data on how many chances that is.

The money shot is this - in the universe of chances Jason Heyward had last year, he converted 291 of them. An average fielder would have made 283 of them.

That means that at $8m per WAR, you're saying those 8 catches are worth $24,000,000.

And that, my friends, is the folly of using WAR as shorthand.
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You're math is a little off bro.
 
GovClintonTyree said:
Not that I see. Where?
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Well Heyward's defensive WAR was more like 2.5 instead of 3 in 2015. Also inside edge fielding is way more subjective than UZR or +/-. It would also seem it doesn't account cutting balls off and holding/throwing out runners as well. As well a 'remote' conversion from an outfielder running in on a bloop over 2nd shouldn't be value as a 'remote' conversion in the gap or down the line.
 
Heyward gets a big boost in WAR from being great defensively in RF where not a lot of great defensive players play, right? That's part of how WAR works?
 
yeezus said:
Heyward gets a big boost in WAR from being great defensively in RF where not a lot of great defensive players play, right? That's part of how WAR works?
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Yes, you get compared to your peers. It also works that he would have essentially the same defensive WAR if he played in center as well due to the positional adjustment.
 
thewupk said:
Yes, you get compared to your peers. It also works that he would have essentially the same defensive WAR if he played in center as well due to the positional adjustment.
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Well in CF there are generally better defenders, and he might not be quite as elite there (or even in the top 5) for defense in CF, which would hurt his WAR, no? Considering he's the best at a usually offense-first position, his WAR gets a big bump from being so much better defensively than the next guy. In CF, he wouldn't be so much better, or likely not even the top CF, so it would hurt his WAR.
 
yeezus said:
Well in CF there are generally better defenders, and he might not be quite as elite there (or even in the top 5) for defense in CF, which would hurt his WAR, no? Considering he's the best at a usually offense-first position, his WAR gets a big bump from being so much better defensively than the next guy. In CF, he wouldn't be so much better, or likely not even the top CF, so it would hurt his WAR.
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It may get hurt a little depending on the overall quality of play in center in a given year. But it's not like there is a strict ranking system to where X war is given out to the 5th best CFer. Any actually runs saved 'lost' due to better defenders for his position would be made up by the difference that each position is weighted.
 
I think WAR probably overates Heyward a hair, but the dude is a very good hitter and a great defender. I'm not sure why people want to argue that he's something less than a very good hitter.
 
yeezus said:
Well in CF there are generally better defenders, and he might not be quite as elite there (or even in the top 5) for defense in CF, which would hurt his WAR, no? Considering he's the best at a usually offense-first position, his WAR gets a big bump from being so much better defensively than the next guy. In CF, he wouldn't be so much better, or likely not even the top CF, so it would hurt his WAR.
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His offensive WAR would be higher in CF. Even if he hit the same.
 
yeezus said:
But defensive WAR would go down.
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Not necessarily. His actual runs saved would likely go down but there be around a 10 run swing in his favor from switching positions. And his oWAR would stay the same. That has no bearing on position played and is strictly compared to all other hitters.
 
thewupk said:
Not necessarily. His actual runs saved would likely go down but there be around a 10 run swing in his favor from switching positions. And his oWAR would stay the same. That has no bearing on position played and is strictly compared to all other hitters.
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I mean, unless he's far and above the best CF in baseball the way he's far and above the best RF in baseball, his defensive WAR would definitely go down. And if his oWAR wouldn't change (I thought that was by position, too) then his WAR would go down.
 
thewupk said:
Not necessarily. His actual runs saved would likely go down but there be around a 10 run swing in his favor from switching positions. And his oWAR would stay the same. That has no bearing on position played and is strictly compared to all other hitters.
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Isn't there a positional adjustment that goes into WAR. You're right that it isn't through oWAR.
 
yeezus said:
I mean, unless he's far and above the best CF in baseball the way he's far and above the best RF in baseball, his defensive WAR would definitely go down. And if his oWAR wouldn't change (I thought that was by position, too) then his WAR would go down.
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Why would his defensive WAR go down? dWAR = runs saved + positional adjustment. The loss of runs saved from moving to center (because of the better quality of defenders) is offset by the addition in his positional adjustment. So his total dWAR would be pretty much the same.
 
gilesfan said:
I think WAR probably overates Heyward a hair, but the dude is a very good hitter and a great defender. I'm not sure why people want to argue that he's something less than a very good hitter.
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Heyward is far from a very good hitter. He's in fact a mediocre hitter who seems better than he is because of his speed and strength, which skew his offensive stats. He's a groundball hitter who occasionally gets on a 2 week hot streak and hits a few HRs because he's so big and strong. If he ever becomes a very good hitter, he will be a great offensive threat.
 
Runnin said:
Heyward is far from a very good hitter. He's in fact a mediocre hitter who seems better than he is because of his speed and strength, which skew his offensive stats. He's a groundball hitter who occasionally gets on a 2 week hot streak and hits a few HRs because he's so big and strong. If he ever becomes a very good hitter, he will be a great offensive threat.
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Semantics. Heyward is a good offensive player which is all that really matters.
 
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