NL Rookie of the Year Watch

Hudson2 said:
I still don't think Horton has that big of a lead. Being a playoff team should have 0 bearing on votes and I'd be saying that if the situation was reversed also. Baldwin has been getting hot so things could change quick.
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it’s over
 
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msstate7 said:
At baldwin's current rate, yeah. He has 10 games, and if the betting odds mean anything, we've saw that small samples make big changes.
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I just don’t think Baldwin’s been impressive enough to get people overlook a 2.60 ERA in 120 innings.

I’d easily rather have Baldwin over Horton long term though and that’s what matters most
 
chop2chip said:
I just don’t think Baldwin’s been impressive enough to get people overlook a 2.60 ERA in 120 innings.

I’d easily rather have Baldwin over Horton long term though and that’s what matters most
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20 HRs
.800 ops
3.0 fWAR

This is what he needs to give himself a good shot imo. That's gonna require one hell of a 10 game run.

ETA... fWIW, Baldwin has a lead in fWAr and bWAR
 
Yeah, if Horton wins it that’s some trash. If he had manage to do this over a full season it would be different.
 
To qualify for any MLB leaderboards a pitcher needs 162 innings and a hitter needs 502 PAs.

Baldwin is at 401 PAs, or ~80% towards being qualified.

Horton is at 115 innings, or ~71% towards being qualified.

Voters have historically favored RoY players who have played a full season if things are close, but neither player is going to qualify for any leaderboards, so it's a tough argument to make in Baldwin's favor.

Having said that, I still give the award to the catcher who's been in MLB since opening day over the SP who can't strike anyone out. However, if Baldwin keeps backsliding for the next 2 weeks he won't deserve it. His .506 OPS this month has really hurt his chances.
 
CJ9 said:
If anyone's still holding out hope, Horton is up to -310 and Baldwin is +210.
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Horton most likely only makes 1 more start vs Mets. Let's hope they rough him up, and they're certainly capable.

FWAR -
Drake 2.6
Cade 2.2

BWAR -
Drake 2.5
Cade 1.9

Let's hope the voters look at more than era.
 
msstate7 said:
Horton most likely only makes 1 more start vs Mets. Let's hope they rough him up, and they're certainly capable.

FWAR -
Drake 2.6
Cade 2.2

BWAR -
Drake 2.5
Cade 1.9

Let's hope the voters look at more than era.
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My biggest take away is Drake started right out of the gate and plays the most taxing position on the field. If I were a voter that would sway me.
 
CJ9 said:
If anyone's still holding out hope, Horton is up to -310 and Baldwin is +210.
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Eh. Baseball writers are super unpredictable. In mid Sept last year, Colton Cowser was -250 to win the AL ROY. Luis Gil ended overtaking him slightly by the end of the year. Of course Gil won, but it was an incredibly tight vote.
 
All it takes is a few writers who disagree with the ROY - draft pick rule to vote Horton just to make sure the Braves get no compensation. Or writers who hate the Braves. Right now it's so close I expect Horton to get it because of that.
 
Writers are mostly idiots, which is why they are writing about sports rather than working for a sports organization, or writing about something important. All competent baseball writers have been snapped up by baseball organizations.

Awarding draft picks based on the decisions of idiots was an idiotic decision itself.
 
I have been preaching this since this stupid rule came in.. The idea was to prevent the Kris Bryant treatment... so they built this elaborate rule using the opinions of others to potentially give a competitive advantage to one team..

We all know that prospect rankings are stupid since the Braves seem to crank out good players, yet the system is awful. Then you have to win an award that is completely subjective, that could potentially have biased voters swinging it one way or another.

Just change the service time rule or reward teams with extra draft money for every rookie they have on the opening day roster and completes a years service time.
 
The prerequisite that a rookie has to be a top 100 prospect is the cherry on top of an awful system. Subjectivity upon subjectivity.
 
chop2chip said:
The prerequisite that a rookie has to be a top 100 prospect is the cherry on top of an awful system. Subjectivity upon subjectivity.
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It should be if you finish in the top 3 in Rookie of the year voting and it’s a top prospect then you get a first round pick. It would be far more tempting to bring up your prospect early
 
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