Some valuation arithmetic on Verlander.
First production projections: 3 WAR in 2018 (age 36), 2 WAR each in 2019 and 2020.
Second, assume his 2020 option is guaranteed. I think this has to be done to get him to waive his no trade rights.
Third, assume the Tigers pony up 10M in 2018 and 2019 and 5 M in 2020. This leaves the acquiring club on the hook for 18M in 2018 and 2019 and 17 M in 2020.
In the above scenario the acquiring team is paying 53M for 7 wins. Assuming a FA market price this upcoming off-season of 9M per win, this implies a surplus value of about 10M or slightly over 1 win. My guess is that we would have to send a package of prospects worth 2-3 wins to get him under the terms outlined above. This could be a single player along the lines of Toussaint or Pache or Wilson. Or a larger package of lesser players.
I would like to see us make this sort of deal. We take on a significant salary obligation (which is more than covered by the expiring contracts of Colon and Garcia) but at the same time avoid losing any of our core prospects.
It gives us a 2018 rotation of Verlander, Teheran, Folty, Dickey and Newcomb.
With Gohara, Soroka, Allard and Sims starting 2018 in AAA and Wright in AA, it positions us to start trading out of a major league pitching surplus as early as mid 2018 to fill areas of need (ie third base and maybe corner outfield and catcher).
If we cannot excute a trade along those lines, plan B for me would be to find a starting pitcher willing to sign on to a 3 year or less deal. The premium guys will get a longer deal, but guys like Cobb, Lynn or Jaime Garcia might settle for 3 years or less.
I do attach a significant amount of importance to limiting the length of any contract taken on either via trade or free agency for a veteran pitcher. Imo the risk in these contracts is usually the years not the AAV.
