Official 2024 Off-Season Thread!

Carp said:
Trade valuation tool has Max Fried for Matt Shaw from the Cubs as an even swap.

So yeah, I'd say it's garbage.
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Oh, I'm sure you could cherry pick a ton of random comparisons... but a surplus values of around $40 million for Cease makes complete sense
 
AA talks so much about Joc's impact in the clubhouse. Just sign him as the LH side of our platoon in left.

It would never happen for many reasons, but a Joc/Pham platoon would be awesome ... and hilarious.
 
Carp said:
Trade valuation tool has Max Fried for Matt Shaw from the Cubs as an even swap.

So yeah, I'd say it's garbage.
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Who is using this "Trade valuation tool"? I don't even know what in the world that thing is, and would never bother looking at it.

Folks have clearly laid out the projected surplus value for Cease. You seem to have a much higher personal projection than the systems widely regarded as the best in the public space. So fine, stick to your untested personal projection system and have your own opinion on his value. But stop acting like anyone is using some broken "Trade valuation tool" as the basis for their side of the discussion because nobody cares what that stupid thing says.
 
Carp said:
That's not really how that works.

Judge is the only player getting 40 million per year on the open market for a long length of time, so that's a moot point. Would Cease get 30+ for 6-7 years in AAV if he were a FA right now? Considering his age and production, most likely.
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Sure it is. Part of a players trade value is what they would get on the open market. Given his age I'd imagine Cease would get 30 a year. 2 years of Cease is going to bring you 60 million in value. Given his next two years will cost somewhere in the 20 million range in actual payroll his trade value is going to be around the 40 million mark.

$$/WAR breaks down the better a player is.
 
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He's a declining Boras client, Chicago needs a score, and there seems to be competition. It just doesn't seem like an AA move to me.
 
Here's the only somewhat legit rumor I can find regarding the asking price for Cease: https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/ml...n&cvid=b60c7cde80a54539a23169218ea46546&ei=15

"Per Rob Bradford of WEEI, Chicago asked the Boston Red Sox for one of their top young pitchers in return for Cease. Bello started 28 games for the Red Sox in 2023 and will be entering his age-25 season."

Bellow was a FV50 guy who was in the middle of a 1.6 win season at the age of 24 at the deadline. To me, that is very comparable to AJSS. Now, obviously, there would have been more going to Chicago than just Bello, but if someone like AJSS is enough to anchor the trade package I see no reason AA can't make it happen.

Since the Dodgers appear to be the Braves main competition for Cease, and a FV50 near-MLB arm seems to be the required centerpiece, LA can offer Stone. AJSS is much younger and can percolate in AAA a bit more while they wait to contend, but other than that I have no real info on which would be more valuable to Chicago.
 
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Enscheff said:
Who is using this "Trade valuation tool"? I don't even know what in the world that thing is, and would never bother looking at it.

Folks have clearly laid out the projected surplus value for Cease. You seem to have a much higher personal projection than the systems widely regarded as the best in the public space. So fine, stick to your untested personal projection system and have your own opinion on his value. But stop acting like anyone is using some broken "Trade valuation tool" as the basis for their side of the discussion because nobody cares what that stupid thing says.
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I was using it as a first guess... but seemed to make sense
 
I think the difference is that the Dodgers have a lot more interesting minor league depth pieces than the Braves do. A couple of those prospects are lottery tickets and the Dodgers always seem to get the benefit of some bias when prospect lists are assembled, but they are interesting nonetheless. I could see the Dodgers combining Stone, Pepiot, and one of their two top minor league catching prospects (Cartaya or Rushing) into a package. It all depends on how the White Sox currently view themselves.
 
The Dodgers are a very smart organization and won’t overpay in most situations so they’ll have all the data showing his declining stuff as well. Some desperate not very bright team would be the one to overpay and outibid everybody but I don’t expect it to be the Braves or Dodgers.
 
Hudson2 said:
The Dodgers are a very smart organization and won’t overpay in most situations so they’ll have all the data showing his declining stuff as well. Some desperate not very bright team would be the one to overpay and outibid everybody but I don’t expect it to be the Braves or Dodgers.
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I agree that someone will overpay, but the teams in the bidding are the ones that see Cease as the missing ingredient in a title run. Dodgers have more pitching questions than the Braves and they also have a few more moveable pieces that might be enticing to the White Sox. A deal for Cease is probably is one that gets played out for a bit unless someone really blows the doors off the White Sox.
 
50PoundHead said:
I agree that someone will overpay, but the teams in the bidding are the ones that see Cease as the missing ingredient in a title run. Dodgers have more pitching questions than the Braves and they also have a few more moveable pieces that might be enticing to the White Sox. A deal for Cease is probably is one that gets played out for a bit unless someone really blows the doors off the White Sox.
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AA seems to always think a year ahead like getting Arcia before Swanson was a FA. Fried and Morton are both gone after next year and as of right now all we would have would be Strider and Elder and a team in the middle of their window can’t have that. I agree that next year there are more TOR arms available and we’ll definitely need one but he could go ahead and get 1 this year to lighten the blow for next year. I’m guessing that’s why he was so hard after Nola.
 
chop2chip said:
I think AA is going to need to roll the dice at some point, but missing big on a $200m contract is the fastest way to close our contention window.
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Next year is probably when you do it when there's much more SP options out there. Not sure if AA would pay anyone other than Yama big-time money. ERod makes sense on like a 3 year deal but without a QO, he may get 4+. But do agree, at some point he's gonna have to take a big risk on someone.
 
If AA trade for Cease and extend Fried we have a very good chance to win. Cease give us 2 years to develop the minor league pitchers.
 
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