Official 2024 Off-Season Thread!

bravesnumberone said:
AA said in radio interview in Atlanta the other day that we almost traded for a middle-of-the-order, right-handed bat at the deadline (who we weren't publicly linked to) that, he thought, might have a made a difference. Maybe he didn't like the price, but I wonder if this experience will lead to him being a little more aggressive in pulling the trigger.
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See that doesn't really narrow it down because of how GMs speak. Middle of the order bat to a GM could be Adam Duvall. But we all know he isn't really a middle of the order bat on team that isn't a bottom dweller.
 
OcalaBrave said:
Marcel Ozuna: Huge rebound year. Is there any market now? Ideally you use his salary to fill holes in the rotation and fill the DH with the catcher not behind the plate that day. That is a downgrade in the offense, so if the right trade isn't there, he plays out his contract.


Looking like a tough offseason for AA. Ideally he'd bring in some controllable pitching that is somewhat established. But there isn't much in the minors to get that done. What talent there is in the minors, is the next wave of controllable pitching that he must develop to make the contract extensions work.
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Realistically, I don't see how you trade Ozuna and replace him with someone equal offensively and who is also cheaper. Ozuna probably stays for the final year on his contract.
 
It's a weak overall FA class, so I expect some mediocre names to get way overpaid. Ohtani is really the only guy worth spending over 100 million on, and he'd likely going to see 350+ with multiple opt outs. It's a pretty crazy drop from Ohtani to the next high profile FA which is either Snell or Bellinger.
 
I know you don’t count on guys coming back from injury, but it would not be a huge surprise to many if a guy like Ynoa could be a factor next year after all is said and done.

You don’t count on him, but I suspect he will get a chance.
 
mfree80 said:
I know you don’t count on guys coming back from injury, but it would not be a huge surprise to many if a guy like Ynoa could be a factor next year after all is said and done.

You don’t count on him, but I suspect he will get a chance.
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Matzek should be ready to go by spring training, if he is even 85% of what he was pre-tommy john, that would be a huge boost.
 
zitothebrave said:
I don't think we'd get a dancing partner with Ozuna. I'd be down to trade him if someone wanted to take him, he's owed at least 17M with the club option, it's a risky gamble for someone to take.

I'd mainly be down to trade him because I"d love for Murphy to be like catcher for 3 games DH for 2 games type of thing. We were great but having murphy more would be better than what we did this year for sure. If we could get somoene else who's a good hitter but meh fielder someone like a Joc Pederson, Justin Turner, Max Muncy, etc. to split time between DH an LF or 1B or another position to potentially give guys like RIley or Olsen DH time too.
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I'm the only one who seems to harp on it, but it would be nice to have someone who could genuinely back up at 1B. Baseball used to be littered with guys who were back-up cOFs who played first base reasonably well. It's not a high priority because Riley can slide over there if necessary, but if they could find a RHH OF to platoon in LF and play some 1B, I think that would be a good thing.
 
I challenge anyone clamoring to replace Rosario to find an option anywhere near 1 year $9M that is projected to produce better than 1.5-2.0 WAR. Folks suggesting Heyward is an obvious answer may want to take a look at his actual numbers as a platoon bat. Here's a hint: they weren't better than Rosario's. So unless there's a steal of a deal for a bat like Robert (hard to imagine the deal they passed up at the deadline is suddenly easier to swallow now), pairing Rosario with someone like Grichuk is likely the best option.

AA's clear need is the best SP he can afford, then the best BP arm he can afford. The vast majority of his resources need to go towards those arms. That fact is just as true now as it was at the deadline. Someone like Elder simply can't be the SP in the 3rd game of a series...it's unacceptable for a true WS contender.
 
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Enscheff said:
I challenge anyone clamoring to replace Rosario to find an option anywhere near 1 year $9M that is projected to produce better than 1.5-2.0 WAR. Folks suggesting Heyward is an obvious answer may want to take a look at his actual numbers as a platoon bat. Here's a hint: they weren't better than Rosario's. So unless there's a steal of a deal for a bat like Robert (hard to imagine the deal they passed up at the deadline is suddenly easier to swallow now), pairing Rosario with someone like Grichuk is likely the best option.

AA's clear need is the best SP he can afford, then the best BP arm he can afford. The vast majority of his resources need to go towards those arms. That fact is just as true now as it was at the deadline. Someone like Elder simply can't be the SP in the 3rd game of a series...it's unacceptable for a true WS contender.
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Facts.

That the Braves lost to the Phillies because of their offense and not their pitching is a black swan event. The offense isn’t a problem. The pitching is (even if it wasn’t the reason we lost 3 out of 4).
 
It's apparent casual fans are going to take more from this poor 4 games than is warranted, but luckily AA is smart enough to understand where the holes on the roster are.

Now I'm not saying he won't pull a rabbit out of his hat for LF like he did for C (getting Robert for Grissom plus some AAAA arm would be awesome), but it's clear where the holes on this roster are.
 
Ozuna and Rosario will both be in contract years next year (Ozuna has a team option for the following year) so I expect both to have extra motivation to perform next year.

Fried is also in a contract year. Enjoy him while we can because he's good as gone after next year. Hopefully he can have a big season.
 
Here is the closest thing to a contract prediction we have for the SP of interest from back in August: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/08/2023-24-mlb-free-agent-power-rankings-august-edition.html

Yamamoto - "easy to envision him receiving offers of eight years...opt-out opportunities"

Montgomery - "Taillon (4/68) and Walker (4/72) feel like more of a floor...ought to be able to command a fifth guaranteed year...nine-figure deal"

Nola - "five or six year deal topping nine figures should still be attainable...$162MM...were it not for the home run concerns"

Giolito - "six-year deal still seems plausible"

Snell - "legitimate Game 1 starter in a postseason series...nine-figure deal of five or more years in length"

Hader - "will take aim at making Diaz’s (5/102) record"

Lorenzen, EdRod and Stroman in the HM section with no real info.

So the play seems to be bring back Morton, then wait to get one of the guys listed above on a 3 year deal, or be the team that jumps at Yamamoto. If that fails be the team who grabs Lorenzen, EdRod or Stroman.
 
Here is their xwOBA over the last 2 seasons compared to Fried, Strider, Elder, and Morton:

Strider, Spencer .259
Fried, Max .262
Nola, Aaron .280
Snell, Blake .291
Montgomery, Jordan .310
Rodriguez, Eduardo .312
Stroman, Marcus .312
Lorenzen, Michael .319
Morton, Charlie .323
Giolito, Lucas .324
Elder, Bryce .324

So Strider and Fried are obviously TOR guys, with Morton/Elder more of a #4 these days. Any of these FA SPs slot in nicely in the middle of the rotation with Elder/AJSS fighting for the #5 spot. I would suggest Lorenzen/Giolito may not be worth going after unless they can be had on a short deal.
 
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I have been impressed with the Braves scouting so I will probably defend whatever they do. Signing FA pitchers feels like walking through a minefield.
 
Enscheff said:
Here is the closest thing to a contract prediction we have for the SP of interest from back in August: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/08/2023-24-mlb-free-agent-power-rankings-august-edition.html

Yamamoto - "easy to envision him receiving offers of eight years...opt-out opportunities"

Montgomery - "Taillon (4/68) and Walker (4/72) feel like more of a floor...ought to be able to command a fifth guaranteed year...nine-figure deal"

Nola - "five or six year deal topping nine figures should still be attainable...$162MM...were it not for the home run concerns"

Giolito - "six-year deal still seems plausible"

Snell - "legitimate Game 1 starter in a postseason series...nine-figure deal of five or more years in length"

Hader - "will take aim at making Diaz’s (5/102) record"

Lorenzen, EdRod and Stroman in the HM section with no real info.

So the play seems to be bring back Morton, then wait to get one of the guys listed above on a 3 year deal, or be the team that jumps at Yamamoto. If that fails be the team who grabs Lorenzen, EdRod or Stroman.
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Surprised to see so many long-duration contracts projected for some of these guys and Rodriguez only in the Honorable Mention category.

Curious to see where the Braves start Waldrep next season (my guess is High A for at least the first couple of months), but the Braves have shown little compunction about aggressively moving pitchers up if they show 2 plus-plus offerings (we've seen it with Strider and almost that level from Smith-Shawver). Can't keep banking on pulling rabbits out of hats, but I wouldn't be surprised if that pattern continues.
 
This is a good year to be shopping for a #3 SP, and it's unlikely they all find 5 year deals. I suspect AA will get the guy willing to sign for 3, with guys like Lorenzen as a fallback filler.
 
Carp said:
See that doesn't really narrow it down because of how GMs speak. Middle of the order bat to a GM could be Adam Duvall. But we all know he isn't really a middle of the order bat on team that isn't a bottom dweller.
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He did say he wasn't talking about Duvall.
 
Tapate50 said:
Boy if the Padres hadn’t gone 6 years for Darvish he’d have been a good fit for them to shed salary
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Yu, or someone similar, I think is still a possibility with a buy down of the later years of the contract for a team looking to reduce their salary commitment.
 
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