Official 2024 Off-Season Thread!

Enscheff said:
Cease has a high spin FA with excellent rise. He is exactly the type of arm the Braves have been targeting. I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised to see them win the bidding for him.

AJSS is like a poor man’s version of Cease stuff-wise, so he seems like a logical part of the return.
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Doesn’t AJSS have poor spin metrics?
 
CJ9 said:
His reasoning was that teams like the Reds and Orioles are in on Cease but wouldn't be in on the big money free agents, so they'll be involved no matter what. Definitely some risk involved, but it could pay off for them.

The timing of the report is interesting after Morosi said yesterday some people thought Cease could be dealt before the winter meetings start on Monday. Guess we'll see.
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The Orioles farm is loaded. If they aren’t backing the truck up now then they won’t be in 2 weeks. They haven’t gotten the offers they want yet and this is them playing a game of chicken. Like I said if they go into the season with Cease and he has another bad year then they blew it bc the package will be even worse for him with 1 year of control and having Boras pushing him to FA bc he’s not gonna resign with a team like the Reds.
 
Hudson2 said:
The Orioles farm is loaded. If they aren’t backing the truck up now then they won’t be in 2 weeks. They haven’t gotten the offers they want yet and this is them playing a game of chicken. Like I said if they go into the season with Cease and he has another bad year then they blew it bc the package will be even worse for him with 1 year of control and having Boras pushing him to FA bc he’s not gonna resign with a team like the Reds.
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Braves have done that a bunch in the past. Teheran comes to mind and possibly Jurjens as well.

I fully expect the O's to get at least 1 if not 2 starters. You can take them out of the Glasnow race as I don't see the Rays giving their division rival their ace.
 
8 y, 80 million for Jackson Chourio.

This is good for baseball. I want to see him start OD in CF for Milwaukee.
 
SJ24 said:
8 y, 80 million for Jackson Chourio.

This is good for baseball. I want to see him start OD in CF for Milwaukee.
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2 club options as well, so buys out 3 FA years if they held him down. Pretty good deal for them. I'd imagine he'll start based on this contract at least.
 
CJ9 said:
Rosenthal wrote this morning that the White Sox are planning to hold Cease until after most of the free agent starters sign, hoping that'll make him more valuable to teams who still need pitching.
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I think that makes perfect sense for the White Sox. Even throwing that out there sweetens the pot for teams that either can't or don't prefer working the free agent market.
 
AJ for Cease is fine, just depends what the rest of the package is. It would be hard to extend Cease given he's Boras but maybe AA can work some magic.
 
Hudson2 said:
The Orioles farm is loaded. If they aren’t backing the truck up now then they won’t be in 2 weeks. They haven’t gotten the offers they want yet and this is them playing a game of chicken. Like I said if they go into the season with Cease and he has another bad year then they blew it bc the package will be even worse for him with 1 year of control and having Boras pushing him to FA bc he’s not gonna resign with a team like the Reds.
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The WS are playing this fine. Barring some fluke accident like MadBum wrecking his dirt bike, the value of Cease is not going to decrease at all at any point this off-season. But it may indeed increase as less top end starters are available. They will have suitors willing to back the truck up for Cease all the way up through spring training.
 
Carp said:
The WS are playing this fine. Barring some fluke accident like MadBum wrecking his dirt bike, the value of Cease is not going to decrease at all at any point this off-season. But it may indeed increase as less top end starters are available. They will have suitors willing to back the truck up for Cease all the way up through spring training.
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Teams will probably have their teams set by ST. I'd be surprised if he's still on the Sox by then. I dont think his value hurts or increases the more they wait, but they gotta move him for full value given he has 2 years of control plus the QO. I guess it can make sense to wait but teams may also pull out and go after someone else. It's a risky play too.
 
Carp said:
The WS are playing this fine. Barring some fluke accident like MadBum wrecking his dirt bike, the value of Cease is not going to decrease at all at any point this off-season. But it may indeed increase as less top end starters are available. They will have suitors willing to back the truck up for Cease all the way up through spring training.
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I didn’t say it’d decrease this offseason but if he craps the bed for a 2nd year in a row and his velocity goes down some more and with less control then yes without a doubt his value goes down even more. The Tigers held Boyd and several other guys to long and could have sold high on them but got greedy and you see how that turned out. The WS are a rebuilding club so trading him this offseason is in their best interest.
 
Hudson2 said:
I didn’t say it’d decrease this offseason but if he craps the bed for a 2nd year in a row and his velocity goes down some more and with less control then yes without a doubt his value goes down even more. The Tigers held Boyd and several other guys to long and could have sold high on them but got greedy and you see how that turned out. The WS are a rebuilding club so trading him this offseason is in their best interest.
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That plus 2 years of control/QO, they gotta move him now. Whenever it is, today, or a month from now. Keeping him does only decrease the value.
 
Enscheff said:
Yes, but he must spin it on a very efficient axis to get as much rise as he does.
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Ah ok, I can see how that would help with the fastball playing up. But what about with breaking pitches, how does spin efficiency make those pitches play up since you aren’t relying so much on rise? We saw Ian Anderson’s lack of spin on his breaking stuff catch up to him when his fastball lost a tick.
 
atl717 said:
Ah ok, I can see how that would help with the fastball playing up. But what about with breaking pitches, how does spin efficiency make those pitches play up since you aren’t relying so much on rise? We saw Ian Anderson’s lack of spin on his breaking stuff catch up to him when his fastball lost a tick.
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Movement is a combination of spin rate and axis of that spin, so guys can make a good breaking ball in various ways. When someone with a great spin rate also hits the right axis you get Fried's curve or Morton's sweeper.

Anderson is a FA/CH guy, so losing velocity also impacted the effectiveness of the CH, and the breaking ball wasn't good enough to make up the difference.

I don't remember how I graded AJSS's breaking ball, but I do remember that split being pretty good, and that pitch doesn't rely on spin at all.
 
Carp said:
The WS are playing this fine. Barring some fluke accident like MadBum wrecking his dirt bike, the value of Cease is not going to decrease at all at any point this off-season. But it may indeed increase as less top end starters are available. They will have suitors willing to back the truck up for Cease all the way up through spring training.
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Every top end SP that comes off the board is another team that doesn't need one. The WS are playing a game of chicken, and the only logical way it makes sense is if they already have an acceptable offer in hand from a team they know isn't going to sign a FA SP. Of course, if that team is smart they will understand their leverage increases every time another team fills a hole via FA, and adjust their offer accordingly.

Cease is not some major difference maker that is head and shoulders above other options, so the WS would be wise not to outsmart themselves here.
 
Hudson2 said:
I’m an AJSS fan but if it’s for Cease I’ll get over it especially if they can work out an extension with him. We should hear something by the end of the weekend I’d guess.
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Trading prospects for a player like Cease and then watching him leave in 2 years or paying him close to market value in an extension is a long term plan to lose. We cant pay every player big money. If AJSS develops into a cheap and good SP thats like having 2 players because it allows us to afford to pay more at other positions. I have a lot of faith in AA and the Braves talent evaluation so I will give him the benefit of the doubt if they trade AJSS but I still wont like it.
 
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