bravesnumberone
Well-known member
Houston has lost back-to-back to Kansas City. Brutal.
Official Around Baseball 2023 Thread
- Thread starter Heyward
- Start date
Why would they televise the national anthem
Heyward
<B>Voted Worst Poster <br>'13, '14, '15 (Co-Winner
Brutal considering they end the year with Seattle and AZ on the road. That Seattle/Houston series in Seattle will be interesting. Projected matchups now are Castillo/Verlander, Kirby/Valdez, Miller/Javier. If that game in AZ to end the year matters to Houston, Verlander is projected to pitch that game which will be interesting if they arent winning the division. Dont think he'd be able to pitch in the WC round unless he threw like 3 innings.
UNCBlue012
Well-known member
Brutal.
#Braves placed Charlie Morton on the 15-day IL (retroactive to September 23) with right index finger inflammation. He'll be unavailable in the NLDS unless he's an injury replacement.
RHP Allan Winans was recalled from Gwinnett and will start Game 1 of today's double header.
#Braves placed Charlie Morton on the 15-day IL (retroactive to September 23) with right index finger inflammation. He'll be unavailable in the NLDS unless he's an injury replacement.
RHP Allan Winans was recalled from Gwinnett and will start Game 1 of today's double header.
More post season roster shenanigans?
Nerfherders
Well-known member
This is starting to remind me of last year where Fried and Strider were hobbled in September. They did everything they could to coddle these guys in the second half and they are still getting injured. Pitchers, man...
Heyward
<B>Voted Worst Poster <br>'13, '14, '15 (Co-Winner
This has been said, but like, who would you trade for? Every pitcher that was traded that we were rumored for has been a bust. Lorenzen moved to the pen, Flaherty the same. Giolito is on like his 4th team this year? Montgomery is the only one dealt who hasnt been a bust.
UNCBlue012
Well-known member
The only pitcher who would have moved the needle is Montgomery, and he wasn't cheap.
Heyward
<B>Voted Worst Poster <br>'13, '14, '15 (Co-Winner
Yeah, Monty was the only one who moves the needle and i doubt AA beats Texas' offer.
Remains to be seen. Unfortunate to have injuries at the 11th hour. I'm not concenred at all about Fried.
jpx7
Very Flirtatious, but Doubts What Love Is.
It’s not hypothetical, though; it’s literally performance with balls-in-play filtered out.
I’m entirely sensitive to the argument that awards won’t (and maybe even shouldn’t) be awarded on the basis of such a stat. Nevertheless, it’s not an “expected stat”; it’s reality as much as ERA, it just considers balls-in-play to be irrelevant.
If they thought he were able to come back at all for the 1st round, then it's puzzling why they put him on the IL in the first place. We don't exactly need the extra roster spot currently. We could have rode with a crew of 27 for the final 8 games.
bravesfanMatt
Steve Harvey'd
yep.. The Braves could have punted the rest of the games with Vines/Winans/Dodd and not really been impacted and then hoped Charlie's finger is good to go.. To me this is something they are worried won't heal before the NLCS but are praying will. Braves will need Elder to be huge in the postseason since Wright doesn't look like he will be any good. Then I guess Winans will be our 4th starter.
It's still not a stat that reflects actual results though. It is a stat that assumes ERA based on BABIP being equal for everyone by removing it for the equation. While it's more a reflection of a pitcher's true talent than simple ERA, it's better used for predicting future performance and not valuing current performance.
The issue with FIP, is that it assumes pitcher's have no control over balls in play, which isn't entirely true. Many pitchers (at least good pitchers anyways) have a large influence on the type of contact being made. And that's even more pronounced in certain pitch counts. Exit velocities for hitters early or behind in the count are significantly lower than exit velocities during a hitters count. And the lower the EV, that significantly higher likelihood that the ball in play is an out. That certainly supports the notion that pitchers have influence on the type of contact being made. Snell for instance, is pretty elite in terms of hard contact rate against him. So while he does give up a lot of base runners, when people are making contact against him, it's generally pretty weak.
Also, even being left handed is natural advantage that suppresses runs that FIP can't account for. Being lefty means it is harder for teams to steal or take larger leads against him, both of which help to reduce runs, even if only marginally. And as we've seen in the past, some pitchers have a history of consistently outpitching their FIP (but not Snell). All of which supports the argument that pitchers have a larger control of balls in play than FIP would lead you to believe.
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DirkPiggler
Well-known member
Balls-in-play without context shouldn't be irrelevant though. Maybe adding a component to incorporate exit velocities would make the stat better. Some pitchers are more prone to hard contact than others. If those same pitchers happen to strike out a lot of batters/walk a relatively low number then it can skew the FIP towards a less effective pitcher.
I realize BIP can be very luck dependent, which is why I really like FIP for its predictive value. This just seems like it would make the metric more relevant for current performance. And I'm very uninformed on many of the newer metric...there is probably already one that captured this that I'm either marginally aware or completely unaware of existing.
zbhargrove
Well-known member
Fair enough… I haven’t been explaining it quite how I want to… I do understand the stat. The whole point is that it does not describe what actually happened though and awards are only going to be based on what actually happened
zbhargrove
Well-known member
xFIP incorporates the exit velocities
MadduxFanII
Swallowed by Mark Bowman
This might be too pedantic a point to be worth making, but I would point out that ERA is not a strictly observational accounting of objective facts. "Earned runs" inherently require a subjective judgement from an official scorer, and then you get into inherited runners and how they're assigned. ERA is more results based than FIP or xFIP, but "Pitcher X has an ERA half a run below Pitcher Y" is not the equivalent of saying "Player X has five more home runs than Player Y." You're still making certain judgements and projections. They just happen to be judgements and projections that we've been making in baseball for a hundred years, so we tend to take them for granted.