OFFICIAL FALLING AXE PREDICTION THREAD

holden said:
Extending CJ was really the worst move Wren has made IMO. It was a move that said "well, at least we have a 3B now." It was like he'd rather just sign him than deal with finding a replacement.
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It's not the worst move. CJ is a beast against lefties. That's something the team usually desperately needs.
 
Dalyn said:
It's not the worst move. CJ is a beast against lefties. That's something the team usually desperately needs.
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Well, you're right. Although he is paid a lot for a platoon player, he would be very useful in that role, if our manager could figure out how to use him.

It's more about the opportunity cost of that move though. If we didn't sign CJ, we could get a decent 3B that could be an every day player.
 
holden said:
Well, you're right. Although he is paid a lot for a platoon player, he would be very useful in that role, if our manager could figure out how to use him.

It's more about the opportunity cost of that move though. If we didn't sign CJ, we could get a decent 3B that could be an every day player.
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Look at the numbers from last year. Look at his career numbers before that. It wasn't a bad move; it just didn't work out in '14. There's still plenty of time.
 
was listening to 680the fan today, they seem to think theres about a 90% chance wren is gone after the season and about 50/50 to 60/40 that fredi is gone......walker/fletcher are definitely gone....thoughts?
 
bravesfanforlife88 said:
was listening to 680the fan today, they seem to think theres about a 90% chance wren is gone after the season and about 50/50 to 60/40 that fredi is gone......walker/fletcher are definitely gone....thoughts?
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I can't see them firing Wren and keeping Gonzalez, but I don't know the tenor in the front office. I'm not a Wren fan, but there are times I get the feeling that the boundaries of responsibility in the front office are a bit blurred. Wren might be looking over his shoulder at JS. Cox isn't around, but he probably has JS's ear and Cox likes Gonzalez, so that complicates matters.

I think it would help if Wren had a clearly-defined plan that he was working from, but he just seems to be so impulsive (whether or not he is actually being impulsive is hard to determine) and a lot of his decisions look hasty and/or irrational.
 
Funny people are focusing on CJ's splits. When he first came here, there was a lot of discussion of his reverse splits in the majors. People don't realize that it takes a long time for splits data to stabilize and reveal the true nature of a player. When he came here, I pointed out he had conventional splits in the minors and that the reverse splits in the majors were probably misleading. This year he has extreme conventional splits, which are probably misleading as well.

His career major league numbers show an OPS of .793 against lefties and .720 against righties. Conventional but not extreme, and probably the best indicator of what to expect from him next year.

CJ is likely to rebound next year to something between his 2013 and 2014 seasons. Of course there is a big gap between the two and it will matter whether he is closer to 2013 than 2014. I don't think third is a big issue for us. Between CJ, Peraza, Kubitza, Reyes, Gosselin an adequate internal solution will emerge.
 
nsacpi said:
Funny people are focusing on CJ's splits. When he first came here, there was a lot of discussion of his reverse splits in the majors. People don't realize that it takes a long time for splits data to stabilize and reveal the true nature of a player. When he came here, I pointed out he had conventional splits in the minors and that the reverse splits in the majors were probably misleading. This year he has extreme conventional splits, which are probably misleading as well.

His career major league numbers show an OPS of .793 against lefties and .720 against righties. Conventional but not extreme, and probably the best indicator of what to expect from him next year.

CJ is likely to rebound next year to something between his 2013 and 2014 seasons. Of course there is a big gap between the two and it will matter whether he is closer to 2013 than 2014. I don't think third is a big issue for us. Between CJ, Peraza, Kubitza, Reyes, Gosselin an adequate internal solution will emerge.
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Havent watched much since he was inserted into the lineup but I could get on board with Goss at 3b
 
Tapate50 said:
Havent watched much since he was inserted into the lineup but I could get on board with Goss at 3b
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I think Gosselin is fools gold. His value this year is largely BABIP driven and his line drive rate suggests the BABIP is not sustainable.
 
I like Gosselin, but I think he's a utility guy. I think they are giving him extended September playing time for two reasons: (1) he looks to be on a bit of a roll right now and (2) they want to give him time at all three IF positions to see if he can handle SS and 3B well enough to supplant Pena.
 
CyYoung31 said:
Why would Wren have a higher chance of gettin canned than Fredi?
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Frank is the guy that put together this team. The Braves have not won a play off series in his 7 years as the GM. The farm system has deteriorated from being consistently among the top 10 in baseball to being in the bottom 10 in baseball. There are stories of Frank not getting along with many people (JS had to step in to keep Roger McDowell from going to Philly), and Bruce Manno, Frank's hand picked top lieutenant, has butted heads with many of the minor league player development guys.

I'm of the opinion that Frank should have the hotter seat, and I'm not a Fredi fan. It is really not Fredi's fault that he has a bunch of players with poor strike zone judgement that strike out entirely too much.
 
KB21 said:
Frank is the guy that put together this team. The Braves have not won a play off series in his 7 years as the GM. The farm system has deteriorated from being consistently among the top 10 in baseball to being in the bottom 10 in baseball. There are stories of Frank not getting along with many people (JS had to step in to keep Roger McDowell from going to Philly), and Bruce Manno, Frank's hand picked top lieutenant, has butted heads with many of the minor league player development guys.
.
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To be fair, thats also because we've brought up alot of players.

Freeman, Heyward, Simmons, Minor, Wood, Julio, Kimbrel, etc, etc.

Thats some good scouting, most of those guys are from Wren.
 
KB21 said:
Frank is the guy that put together this team. The Braves have not won a play off series in his 7 years as the GM. The farm system has deteriorated from being consistently among the top 10 in baseball to being in the bottom 10 in baseball. There are stories of Frank not getting along with many people (JS had to step in to keep Roger McDowell from going to Philly), and Bruce Manno, Frank's hand picked top lieutenant, has butted heads with many of the minor league player development guys.

I'm of the opinion that Frank should have the hotter seat, and I'm not a Fredi fan. It is really not Fredi's fault that he has a bunch of players with poor strike zone judgement that strike out entirely too much.
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Virtually this same team won 96 games last year. Frank Wren fielded a talented team. They just didn't perfom. That falls more on Fredi than Frank.
 
CyYoung31 said:
Virtually this same team won 96 games last year. Frank Wren fielded a talented team. They just didn't perfom. That falls more on Fredi than Frank.
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This is a true statement, no doubt about it. But from what it sounds like, there is some underlying stuff the public isn't fully aware of that seems to be causing friction within the organization. The McDowell situation last offseason, a few minor league coaches leaving, etc.

I worked in the clubhouse for Gwinnett from 09-12. In that time frame, Bruce Manno came through and implemented new organization rules top down. Things such as no more ping pong, nothing allowed on t.v. not baseball related, and other things. Might seem minor, but the guys need something to get away from baseball if not for a little bit before locking into the game. No one likes to work for someone that micro manages them.
 
CyYoung31 said:
Virtually this same team won 96 games last year. Frank Wren fielded a talented team. They just didn't perfom. That falls more on Fredi than Frank.
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Career years from Johnson and Simmons (at least with the bat). Presence of McCann. Deeper bullpen (likely career years from Avilan and Carpenter). Can't blame Wren for the injuries to Medlen, Hudson, and Beachy, but he bears some responsibility for not having a better set of replacements for this season. If Liberty doesn't open up the checkbook for Santana, we're likely looking at Freddy Garcia in the rotation.
 
I think Wren has been solid, as far as the product on the field in concerned. I think there's a legit chance that he's gone now, since the background stuff has started to leak out. The BJ signing looks terrible in retrospect, and I thought the CJ extension was weird—not because he overpaid, but because he added a year for a marginal guy. It's 20/20 hindsight to say that we didn't need another pitcher after Javy Vasquez. Whatever the case, it looks like there's blood in the water.

I think Fredi did a rotten job this year.
 
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