Official Offseason Thread

Enscheff said:
Who exactly have the Padres developed? Other than signing terrible FA contracts, SD isn’t known for much.
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They are generally regarded has having one of the best, if not the best farm systems in the majors. Most of those guys are just coming up - Paddack, Tatis Jr had their rookie seasons, with Mackenzie Gore still in the minors.
 
Enscheff said:
Who exactly have the Padres developed? Other than signing terrible FA contracts, SD isn’t known for much.
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He’s a young Harvard Econ guy. So maybe his development record is spotty, but at least it continues the signal that AA is going all in building a progressive front office.
 
Nerfherders said:
They are generally regarded has having one of the best, if not the best farm systems in the majors. Most of those guys are just coming up - Paddack, Tatis Jr had their rookie seasons, with Mackenzie Gore still in the minors.
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Right, but who have they developed? A team like the Cards and Dodgers and Yanks and Rays seem to take rough material and create MLB players regularly. I'd argue the Braves have done a pretty good job developing position players (pitchers are another story).

Nothing I've seen from SD suggests they do anything similar. All they seem to do is sign terrible contracts.
 
The winter meetings have been pretty boring in regards to trade rumors. Usually it seems like there are teams working hard on a blockbuster deal. So far we've really only heard about some interesting players being available, but I haven't seen much in regards to actual deals.
 
bravesfanforlife88 said:
One guy I would unload the farm on
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Arenado has a similar home/away problem as Bumgarner, although Nolan is very good both home and away. He's just way less good away from Coors, as are most players. The problem is gauging just how much worse he would be if moving away from Coors field. I tend to think that he'd go from being a consistent .950+ hitter with great defense, to a consistent ~.875-.900 hitter with great defense. Given the fact that he is owed truck loads of money through 2026, I don't know that I would unload the farm for him. But I would certainly make a healthy offer and try to tempt the Rockies into unloading some of that money given that they don't really look like a competitive team any time soon.

But I am extremely skeptical of his availability. That would be highly unusual since he literally just signed his extension in February.
 
UNCBlue012 said:
Where do you even start? It would be a ton even with the big contract. Riley, Pache/Waters, Anderson/Wright and Wilson +? Or am I crazy?
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no trade clause and a west coast guy.

Still think you are talking about Riley, Pache, Anderson, Wrigh/Mueller and taking on a bad contract.

If we can pay 35 million, why not just get Rendon?
 
bravesfanMatt said:
Yeah. Price probably has negative value
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The mention is that if they intend to contend SOON, they're going to have to do it via the trade route. Trout and Adell would be a great pairing - their version of Acuna and Albies - but they're simply not going to build anything any time soon without shaking things up. If they spend $100 million to land Donaldson, they've got their Acuna/Albies/Freeman. Upton's not a bad 4th piece when he's healthy. They only have Simmons for this year, then they'll have to replace him.

Even if they had added Cole, they'd still be 3 SPs shy of fielding a halfway decent rotation. Cole and Donaldson would have made them better, but wouldn't make them winners. They're not going to ever be competitive with the stars and scrubs approach - until they stop chasing big names and do something to make their lineup and rotation deeper, they're as good as they're ever going to be - Cole/Trout/Donaldson/Adell wasn't going to win them any more championships than Acuna/Albies/Freddie/Soroka have won the Braves.

They're just not deep enough, and there's not enough available talent for them to spend themselves into winners.
 
Russ2dollas said:
no trade clause and a west coast guy.

Still think you are talking about Riley, Pache, Anderson, Wrigh/Mueller and taking on a bad contract.

If we can pay 35 million, why not just get Rendon?
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I 100% would get Rendon but I'm guessing he goes to the highest bidder who almost assuredly wouldn't be ATL.
 
UNCBlue012 said:
Where do you even start? It would be a ton even with the big contract. Riley, Pache/Waters, Anderson/Wright and Wilson +? Or am I crazy?
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I think he would be worth significantly less than Matt Chapman on the trade market.

I have Arenado projected for about 28 WAR over the next 7 years (5, 5, 5, 4, 4, 3, 2), so at 8 million dollars per win he would be worth about 224 million in raw value. He's still owed 234 million dollars over the course of his contract, but obviously he wouldn't be valuated at -10 million in surplus value. However, given the long term nature and the quality of the player in question, I think it'd be fair to valuate him a 10 million per WAR and maybe jack up his projection to 30 WAR as the de facto contender's premium. That would get him to a surplus value of around ~66 million dollars. That looks like a package of Waters, Wright, and a 40 FV prospect or two. People tend to underestimate just how much that massive contract eats in to his value. I'm being extremely generous by valuating him at 66 million, a fair argument could be made that he's worth substantially less.

On the other hand, Matt Chapman is easily going to be valuated at 20 WAR over the next 4 years at a cost of whatever his arbitration is. I'd guess around 60 million. So he'd be far more expensive than Arenado.
 
Russ2dollas said:
no trade clause and a west coast guy.

Still think you are talking about Riley, Pache, Anderson, Wrigh/Mueller and taking on a bad contract.

If we can pay 35 million, why not just get Rendon?
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Riley, Pache, Anderson, and Wright would be an absurd package for Arenado. Guys, for Arenado to be worth over 100 million dollars in surplus value you have project him out for 35 wins over the next 7 years AND value that WAR at 10 million dollars per year, rather than the standard 8. At 8 million, you have to project him out for 42 WAR to get even close to a package like that. Is there anyone out there who would project that Nolan Arenado will be a 6 win player through his age 36 season outside of Coors field?
 
Arenado is tough to evaluate due to the opt out. FG did a good analysis of the value of opt outs here:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/whats-an-opt-out-worth/

When the article was written, the "actual value" Arenado's contract was $9.6M/WAR, which is a good deal higher than the ~$8M/WAR SD and Phil paid for Machado and Harper. This means the Rox got worse than FA value on their Arenado extension...it was a bad contract the moment it was signed because the Rox are morons.

Then Arenado went out and posted a huge 2019, increasing the likelihood he opts out after 2021 from 40% to...something higher. Let's call it 50/50 now? Since his 2019 salary was so much lower than the rest of his yearly salaries, the Rox just used up the most valuable season of the contract, and it's still roughly valued at $9.5M/WAR.

In short, at $9.5M/WAR, the Arenado contract isn't as valuable as most folks think it is. In fact, it's not that valuable at all. Any team dealing for Arenado is doing so praying that he opts out after 2021, because if he doesn't that means the contract has turned into a disaster.
 
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Enscheff said:
Arenado is tough to evaluate due to the opt out. FG did a good analysis of the value of opt outs here:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/whats-an-opt-out-worth/

When the article was written, the "actual value" Arenado's contract was $9.6M/WAR, which is a good deal higher than the ~$8M/WAR SD and Phil paid for Machado and Harper. This means the Rox got worse than FA value on their Arenado extension...it was a bad contract the moment it was signed because the Rox are morons.

Then Arenado went out and posted a huge 2019, increasing the likelihood he opts out after 2021 from 40% to...something higher. Let's call it 50/50 now? Since his 2019 salary was so much lower than the rest of his yearly salaries, the Rox just used up the most valuable season of the contract, and it's still roughly valued at $9.5M/WAR.

In short, at $9.5M/WAR, the Arenado contract isn't as valuable as most folks think it is. In fact, it's not that valuable at all. Any team dealing for Arenado is doing so praying that he opts out after 2021, because if he doesn't that means the contract has turned into a disaster.
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Didn’t realize his opt out was so soon.
 
Russ2dollas said:
no trade clause and a west coast guy.

Still think you are talking about Riley, Pache, Anderson, Wrigh/Mueller and taking on a bad contract.

If we can pay 35 million, why not just get Rendon?
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Rox will almost assuredly have to eat money if they want a good return for Arenado. If they ate 75 million, he's a legit trade candidate and someone worth giving up Waters/Riley/etc for.
 
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