Official Offseason Thread

[ixiXSolidXixi]

From Bowman

With the team losing a Draft pick with the Will Smith signing, do you think that will keep them from signing a guy like Zack Wheeler or Madison Bumgarner?
— @Koos_C

With the signing of Smith, the Braves lost their second-highest Draft pick and $500,000 from their international bonus pool. Signing a second player who rejected a qualifying offer would lead them to also lose their third-highest pick and $500,000.

Even before Smith signed, it was starting to feel like Wheeler would not end up with the Braves. Given the Draft pick cost, the likelihood of Atlanta signing Bumgarner has certainly decreased.

There’s always a chance the Braves could opt to trade for a starting pitcher. But instead of targeting a front-line guy, they might simply try to add experience to their rotation by pursuing a free agent like Wade Miley or Rick Porcello. Like Miley with the Brewers in 2017, Porcello might benefit from a move to the National League.

“ I know a lot of people is not a big fan of Bowman.”

 

[nsacpi]

i'm a yuge fan of Bowman's

 

[Horsehide Harry]

For a year, sure, then our farm is wrecked, and our window is just about closed going forward. No thanks. Given not a good chance we'd pay Mookie 300+ mil.

It depends on what Boston's goal really is. My understanding is that they want/need to get below the luxury tax threshold.

I haven't done this in a while, but using the surplus value calculator (which I admit may not be accurate):

Braves get: Andujar, Frazier, Wade
Yankees get: Anderson, Camargo, Wilson

Braves get: Betts, Eovaldi, Leon
Bosox get: Contreras

Braves get: Espino, Hankins
Indians get: Inciarte, Duvall, Ramos

Braves get: Gray
Rockies get: Wright, Muller, Dean

Braves sign Ben Zobrist 1 year $5M

Using Enscheff's numbers from above it puts payroll at ~$140M

OF: Acuna, Betts, Frazier, Riley, Markakis

1B: Freeman
2B: Albies
SS: Swanson
3B: Andujar, Riley
C: Flowers, Leon
Util: Culberson, Zobrist, Wade

SP: Soroka, Folty, Fried, Gray, Eovaldi, Newk
RP: Smith, Melancon, Greene, O'Day, Jackson, Minter, Dayton

lose Anderson, Wright, Wilson, Muller, Contreras, Ramos & Dean plus veterans Inciarte and Camargo but gain prospects Espino and Hankins and keep Pache, Waters and Langeliers

I know, I know...not going to happen, but fun to speculate on a board intended for speculation

 

[nsacpi]

Andujar is one of the more intriguing options for third. Certainly risky but quite a bit of upside.

 

[Enscheff]

LOL love it

 

[Snowman]

I don't know what the problem with Bowman would be, really. He's the only guy in all of Atlanta sports media who even comes close to being honest with the fanbase, while everyone else blows smoke, rainbows, and roses up our collective asses and tells us every single thing the team does is pure genius and guaranteed to make us win 150.

 

[Enscheff]

The issue with Bowman is that he writes as if he has inside info, and ends up being wrong almost all the time. Literally...like 90% of the time.

In addition to that, he’s a fat slob who gets winded and drenched in sweat during an interview, so he’s an easy mark.

 

[Enscheff]

This article claims the Braves final 2019 payroll was $144M:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/11/nl-east-notes-zimmerman-karsay-mets-braves.html

While it isn’t clear if the $4M moved to the 2019 payroll from the Markakis/Flowers deals is included, it represents a moderate increase over the $136M figure for 2018 listed at Cots:

https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/national-league/atlanta-braves-2/

Considering attendance again went up little in 2019:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/ATL/attend.shtml

We can probably assume the overall 2020 payroll will be $150M+ as long as the Braves stay in contention long enough to maintain interest in the team through the bulk of the regular season.

It looks like AA likes to keep $10M-$15M free for additions at the deadline (and 2019 was just a case of big deals falling through), so that puts the target opening day payroll right around $135M-$145M...a bit higher than $130M figure I’d been assuming for months.

They have $100M spent so far, and $35M+ left to play with. Maybe the Smith deal won’t handcuff the roster as much as originally feared. That’s probably enough to get JD, Castro and a scrap heap #4 like Porcello, especially if Greene is dumped.

 

[zbhargrove]

This article claims the Braves final 2019 payroll was $144M:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/11/nl-east-notes-zimmerman-karsay-mets-braves.html

While it isn’t clear if the $4M moved to the 2019 payroll from the Markakis/Flowers deals is included, it represents a moderate increase over the $136M figure for 2018 listed at Cots:

https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/national-league/atlanta-braves-2/

Considering attendance again went up little in 2019:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/ATL/attend.shtml

We can probably assume the overall 2020 payroll will be $150M+ as long as the Braves stay in contention long enough to maintain interest in the team through the bulk of the regular season.

It looks like AA likes to keep $10M-$15M free for additions at the deadline (and 2019 was just a case of big deals falling through), so that puts the target opening day payroll right around $135M-$145M...a bit higher than $130M figure I’d been assuming for months.

They have $100M spent so far, and $35M+ left to play with. Maybe the Smith deal won’t handcuff the roster as much as originally feared. That’s probably enough to get JD, Castro and a scrap heap #4 like Porcello, especially if Greene is dumped.

Porcello could be an interesting NL bounce back candidate if not sexy

 

[Hudson2]

This article claims the Braves final 2019 payroll was $144M:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/11/nl-east-notes-zimmerman-karsay-mets-braves.html

While it isn’t clear if the $4M moved to the 2019 payroll from the Markakis/Flowers deals is included, it represents a moderate increase over the $136M figure for 2018 listed at Cots:

https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/national-league/atlanta-braves-2/

Considering attendance again went up little in 2019:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/ATL/attend.shtml

We can probably assume the overall 2020 payroll will be $150M+ as long as the Braves stay in contention long enough to maintain interest in the team through the bulk of the regular season.

It looks like AA likes to keep $10M-$15M free for additions at the deadline (and 2019 was just a case of big deals falling through), so that puts the target opening day payroll right around $135M-$145M...a bit higher than $130M figure I’d been assuming for months.

They have $100M spent so far, and $35M+ left to play with. Maybe the Smith deal won’t handcuff the roster as much as originally feared. That’s probably enough to get JD, Castro and a scrap heap #4 like Porcello, especially if Greene is dumped.

What about trade wise? I see him cashing in a few prospects for a cheap controllable player.

 

[Enscheff]

What about trade wise? I see him cashing in a few prospects for a cheap controllable player.

We know AA was in on guys like JTR and Paxton last year, so it stands to reason he will grab a guy if the value is there.

Of course, we all waited for the inevitable big trade that never came, so I think it's safe to assume he won't be winning any bidding wars in trades. Either another team overvalues someone like Riley, or a trade won't happen.

 

[Carp]

On paper, Kimbrel was in obvious decline so no

The point is not who was better at the time of their signing (a lot closer than you're giving credit for). The point is, RP (more specifically a reliable closer) was more of a need last winter than it is this winter. I assume money was the bigger issue, but it's just odd considering the needs of the individual off-seasons.

 

[NYCBrave]

Interesting AJC article came out the other day discussing Braves payroll and exploring the possibility of DFA Shane Greene. Wonder if he'd have any trade value. Set to make around 6 mil in arbitration.

 

[clvclv]

With the Indians able to get out from under Santana's deal following this season, I kinda wonder if they wouldn't see a Riley/Ender offer as enough to part with Kluber. Nolan Jones is all but ready, but there are still questions about where he fits defensively. If they had Ender to take care of CF and Riley to handle 3B they could slide Jose Ramirez back over to 2B. They could then have Jones work on tracking flyballs this winter and next spring and could bring him up to play LF after gaming his clock like AA did with Riley. Santana and Bobby Bradley could split the 1B/DH duties with Bradley taking over at 1B next season.

If AA were able to move Ender's salary in a Kluber deal, the money would likely be there to sign Donaldson AND "replace" Ender with Avisail Garcia. Whenever Pache forces his way onto the roster and Acuna slides back over, they could cut Duvall loose and use Garcia as Markakis' platoon-mate.

 

[Carp]

Interesting AJC article came out the other day discussing Braves payroll and exploring the possibility of DFA Shane Greene. Wonder if he'd have any trade value. Set to make around 6 mil in arbitration.

Should easily have enough value to trade, though I would expect the return to be substantially less than what we gave up.

 

[jpx7]

Interesting AJC article came out the other day discussing Braves payroll and exploring the possibility of DFA Shane Greene. Wonder if he'd have any trade value. Set to make around 6 mil in arbitration.

I don’t see the point of trading or (especially) non-tendering Greene if entering 2020 with a deep bullpen is the goal.

 

[NYCBrave]

I don’t see the point of trading or (especially) non-tendering Greene if entering 2020 with a deep bullpen is the goal.

Guess it all comes down to if we have enough cash left to cover our other holes. It makes sense to spend big on our bullpen this year while our starting rotation, and majority of our lineup is so cheap. But we still have spots we need to spend on.

 

[Carp]

I don’t see the point of trading or (especially) non-tendering Greene if entering 2020 with a deep bullpen is the goal.

It just seems rather redundant and certainly quite a lot of money to spend on what would be, at best, your 3rd best reliever (depending on what happens with Newk). Not that I'm necessarily against keeping him, but I do think there's a good argument for using his money elsewhere.

 

[zbhargrove]

The point is not who was better at the time of their signing (a lot closer than you're giving credit for). The point is, RP (more specifically a reliable closer) was more of a need last winter than it is this winter. I assume money was the bigger issue, but it's just odd considering the needs of the individual off-seasons.

This isn't some hindsight thing. Myself and many other posters pointed out before he ever signed to you blind Kimbrel lovers that the metrics clearly showed he was in decline. Low and behold he was terrible and then got injured after he finally singed.

 

[Carp]

This isn't some hindsight thing. Myself and many other posters pointed out before he ever signed to you blind Kimbrel lovers that the metrics clearly showed he was in decline. Low and behold he was terrible and then got injured after he finally singed.

Again, you're missing the point. RP was bigger need last off-season. Whether or not Smith is a better pitcher now than CK was at this time last year is irrelevant. And it isn't like AA didn't have interest either. We reportedly were trying to sign both DK and CK after the draft. It's odd that AA would spend the money and the pick on Smith now when RP isn't nearly as big of an issue as it was this time last off-season. Even if your point CK wasn't worth it, other closers were available at cheaper rates and didn't cost a pick.

Again, may be we didn't have the money to do that last off-season, or may be AA offered him a similar contracts to players and was outbid. Or may be AA saw how critical a lock down pen can be in a short series. Who knows. It just seems odd considering the state of the BP's in relation to each off-season.