Official Offseason Thread

[Enscheff]

After the shock of AA signing Smith wore off, I am starting to not hate it as much. I think I let the fact I thought I had AA all figured out bias my view against the deal a bit too much.

While it is generally bad to give BP arms long term deals, I was shortchanging just how good Smith is. AA got a nearly elite BP arm (perhaps elite depending on semantics) for the price the Cubs paid Chatwood or the Yanks paid Britton. Smith is a good deal better than both guys, so it was a good value signing in that sense. I'm still not a fan if this deal was made at the expense of other needs like C, 3B, and even a SP, but it's not the horrible deal I called it initially.

Keep in mind CK tanked his own market with an absurd asking price. That's why he didn't sign, not because the Braves didn't have needs in the BP.

 

[Russ2dollas]

After the shock of AA signing Smith wore off, I am starting to not hate it as much. I think I let the fact I thought I had AA all figured out bias my view against the deal a bit too much.

While it is generally bad to give BP arms long term deals, I was shortchanging just how good Smith is. AA got a nearly elite BP arm (perhaps elite depending on semantics) for the price the Cubs paid Chatwood or the Yanks paid Britton. Smith is a good deal better than both guys, so it was a good value signing in that sense. I'm still not a fan if this deal was made at the expense of other needs like C, 3B, and even a SP, but it's not the horrible deal I called it initially.

Keep in mind CK tanked his own market with an absurd asking price. That's why he didn't sign, not because the Braves didn't have needs in the BP.

I like the deal if our payroll is 140+ million. Otherwise I still do not like it.

I like the player. I could be ok with MM at 3B as a downgrade to JD, but only if they upgrade elsewhere in the line up.

This deal does not make sense to me unless the payroll is going way up and/or they are planning on landing a Lindor type talent.

 

[clvclv]

I don’t see the point of trading or (especially) non-tendering Greene if entering 2020 with a deep bullpen is the goal.

Particularly if you're going into the start of next season still trying to limit Soroka and Fried's innings - even if just slightly so early on - and particularly if AA is only going to add one more SP. That's going to leave Newk/Wright/Wilson/Weigel/Davidson and their inexperience battling for the 5th spot in the rotation. Combine that with Folty's propensity for giving you clunkers every so often, and it's tough to argue that the pen upgrade wasn't needed before the rotation upgrade. That's far from a suggestion that we don't produce at least one more solid SP from the pile of arms we still have - it's simply pointing out that you can likely count on at least one game of every turn through the rotation where you won't get more than 3-4 innings from a starter, and it could easily happen more often than that - at least early in the season.

Winning some of those games early on will likely be important - we can't expect the Gnats to dig themselves the hole they dug for themselves again, the Phillies and Mutts should be better, and even the Marlins probably won't be the pushover they were in 2019.

 

[zbhargrove]

Again, you're missing the point. RP was bigger need last off-season. Whether or not Smith is a better pitcher now than CK was at this time last year is irrelevant. And it isn't like AA didn't have interest either. We reportedly were trying to sign both DK and CK after the draft. It's odd that AA would spend the money and the pick on Smith now when RP isn't nearly as big of an issue as it was this time last off-season. Even if your point CK wasn't worth it, other closers were available at cheaper rates and didn't cost a pick.

Again, may be we didn't have the money to do that last off-season, or may be AA offered him a similar contracts to players and was outbid. Or may be AA saw how critical a lock down pen can be in a short series. Who knows. It just seems odd considering the state of the BP's in relation to each off-season.

Smith was arguably the best closer in the MLB last year. Has had no signs of decline, in fact has only gotten better. I'd argue the need for another pen member is about the same. Last year we were counting on Minter and Viz for good reason. They were lights out the year before and young. When you factor in we had those guys and expected to be themselves, was the pen really setup much different? You're basing all of your posts on hindsight. We just got arguably the best closer in the game on a great deal.

 

[zbhargrove]

After the shock of AA signing Smith wore off, I am starting to not hate it as much. I think I let the fact I thought I had AA all figured out bias my view against the deal a bit too much.

While it is generally bad to give BP arms long term deals, I was shortchanging just how good Smith is. AA got a nearly elite BP arm (perhaps elite depending on semantics) for the price the Cubs paid Chatwood or the Yanks paid Britton. Smith is a good deal better than both guys, so it was a good value signing in that sense. I'm still not a fan if this deal was made at the expense of other needs like C, 3B, and even a SP, but it's not the horrible deal I called it initially.

Keep in mind CK tanked his own market with an absurd asking price. That's why he didn't sign, not because the Braves didn't have needs in the BP.

I completely agree with all of this. If all of the other needs are able to addressed satisfactorily, this is a pretty good deal.

 

[Super]

i just can't believe AA would make this deal at the expense of securing a solid 3B and catcher, and adding to the starting pitching. i'm not sure he could have a full plan so early on, but i have to believe he knows the money is there and he has more to spend.

 

[BeanieAntics]

I keep going through all the different potential paths this offseason, and one guy keeps coming up in my mind for an ideal trade target: Eduardo Escobar. If we could get his bat into our lineup at a financial cost of only 7 million dollars, it opens up a tremendous amount of possibilities for us. Getting the D'backs to play ball on a deal like that, though, would almost certainly require an overpay. Is there anyway that they would overvalue Austin Riley and maybe take a package of him plus a couple tier 2 arms like Kyle Muller and/or Huascar Ynoa?

I just keep looking around the league and there doesn't seem to be a name that fits both our needs and our budget better than that guy. If we somehow got him, I'd do everything I could to also pull in Yasmani and a RH outfielder like Avisail Garcia. Even after that, we should still have the budget to sign a budget starter and possibly another bullpen piece like Martin or something.

 

[nsacpi]

I keep going through all the different potential paths this offseason, and one guy keeps coming up in my mind for an ideal trade target: Eduardo Escobar. If we could get his bat into our lineup at a financial cost of only 7 million dollars, it opens up a tremendous amount of possibilities for us. Getting the D'backs to play ball on a deal like that, though, would almost certainly require an overpay. Is there anyway that they would overvalue Austin Riley and maybe take a package of him plus a couple tier 2 arms like Kyle Muller and/or Huascar Ynoa?

I just keep looking around the league and there doesn't seem to be a name that fits both our needs and our budget better than that guy. If we somehow got him, I'd do everything I could to also pull in Yasmani and a RH outfielder like Avisail Garcia. Even after that, we should still have the budget to sign a budget starter and possibly another bullpen piece like Martin or something.

Depends on price with Escobar. But yeah he checks off a lot of boxes.

 

[Carp]

Smith was arguably the best closer in the MLB last year. Has had no signs of decline, in fact has only gotten better. I'd argue the need for another pen member is about the same. Last year we were counting on Minter and Viz for good reason. They were lights out the year before and young. When you factor in we had those guys and expected to be themselves, was the pen really setup much different? You're basing all of your posts on hindsight. We just got arguably the best closer in the game on a great deal.

Viz and Minty were "lights out" in 2018, but somehow CK wasn't.... yeah no.

Viz had a grand total of .3 WAR in 2018 and has never been healthy over a full season (much less had a WAR over 1). Considering AA was looking to trade for Diaz among others, I'd say he wasn't particularly comfortable with the back end of the BP. Minty was fine, but lacked much closing experience and the rest of the BP left a lot to be desired. Certainly not anything you'd feel comfortable with closing games. That isn't revisionist theory. A bunch of us expressed such concerns before the season started that the BP didn't look very good.


And again, I'm just throwing CK out there cause he was the best reliever on the marker last year, but you can substitute any of the closer type of relievers if you wish. This isn't about debating whether Smith was better than any one of them. I'm perfectly comfortable with someone stating that. It's simply stating that it's odd AA was willing to do this now when RP was a more prominent need last off-season.

But again, may be AA did try and was out bid/priced out of our range (CK). Or maybe the increase in funds this off-season allowed him splurge on a luxury. The whole point is not that Smith is a bad signing, but simply that it's completely uncharacteristic of AA. And that if spending big money on a reliever with QO attached wasn't an issue for him, it makes you wonder why he didn't do this last off-season.

But please, carry on with your pointless arguing over nothing.

 

[Jaw]

I'd argue the need for another pen member is about the same. Last year we were counting on Minter and Viz for good reason. They were lights out the year before and young. When you factor in we had those guys and expected to be themselves, was the pen really setup much different?

This is a good point. Melancon/Greene ~ Vizcaino/Minter. There was no one else in the current pen before the Smith deal that I would have trusted as much as those two last year.

 

[The Tariff King]

The Rednecks in the South that Enscheff is always complaining about will not like the fact the Braves traded Austin Riley since they feel he has the potential to hit 60 homers.

 

[NYCBrave]

After the shock of AA signing Smith wore off, I am starting to not hate it as much. I think I let the fact I thought I had AA all figured out bias my view against the deal a bit too much.

While it is generally bad to give BP arms long term deals, I was shortchanging just how good Smith is. AA got a nearly elite BP arm (perhaps elite depending on semantics) for the price the Cubs paid Chatwood or the Yanks paid Britton. Smith is a good deal better than both guys, so it was a good value signing in that sense. I'm still not a fan if this deal was made at the expense of other needs like C, 3B, and even a SP, but it's not the horrible deal I called it initially.

Keep in mind CK tanked his own market with an absurd asking price. That's why he didn't sign, not because the Braves didn't have needs in the BP.

It's taken me some time to come around on as well. I guess for me, the big disappointment is that out of all of the arms we acquired in the draft over the past 5+ years, we couldn't turn any into elite relievers who we could have for cheap.

The other thing about the Smith signing is, it's easy to look at only for this year. But the signing is also about the future and especially once we shed the big contracts of Melancon and Greene. We will still have an elite closer at a decent price, and then hopefully can surround him with some arms we've developed from the farm by that point.

 

[msstate7]

The Rednecks in the South that Enscheff is always complaining about will not like the fact the Braves traded Austin Riley since they feel he has the potential to hit 60 homers.

60 is the low end... I'm thinking more 72-4

 

[Carp]

This is a good point. Melancon/Greene ~ Vizcaino/Minter. There was no one else in the current pen before the Smith deal that I would have trusted as much as those two last year.

I absolutely trust Melancon and Greene both way more than I ever trusted Viz. Minty was bad luck, but I'd have put him on par with them coming off his 2018, though I give an extra nod to Greene and Melancon for their closing experience.

 

[The Tariff King]

I hope Webb is healthy in 2020. I really missed seeing him pitch the second half. Also hoping Sobotka can finally figure his **** out. That arm is too talented to be wasted.

 

[zbhargrove]

Viz and Minty were "lights out" in 2018, but somehow CK wasn't.... yeah no.

Viz had a grand total of .3 WAR in 2018 and has never been healthy over a full season (much less had a WAR over 1). Considering AA was looking to trade for Diaz among others, I'd say he wasn't particularly comfortable with the back end of the BP. Minty was fine, but lacked much closing experience and the rest of the BP left a lot to be desired. Certainly not anything you'd feel comfortable with closing games. That isn't revisionist theory. A bunch of us expressed such concerns before the season started that the BP didn't look very good.


And again, I'm just throwing CK out there cause he was the best reliever on the marker last year, but you can substitute any of the closer type of relievers if you wish. This isn't about debating whether Smith was better than any one of them. I'm perfectly comfortable with someone stating that. It's simply stating that it's odd AA was willing to do this now when RP was a more prominent need last off-season.

But again, may be AA did try and was out bid/priced out of our range (CK). Or maybe the increase in funds this off-season allowed him splurge on a luxury. The whole point is not that Smith is a bad signing, but simply that it's completely uncharacteristic of AA. And that if spending big money on a reliever with QO attached wasn't an issue for him, it makes you wonder why he didn't do this last off-season.

But please, carry on with your pointless arguing over nothing.

And now you're missing the point. You were saying last year the pen was a greater need. It wasn't. My last post had nothing to do with Kimbrel. Kimbrel was clearly declining and AA wasn't going to do something idiotic and give into Kimbrel's demands when he clearly wasn't worth it. Most all the pen options had warts last year and he likely wasn't going to go over board to just to spend money on something he wasn't confident on. Smith was worth the good deal he received.

 

[zbhargrove]

I absolutely trust Melancon and Greene both way more than I ever trusted Viz. Minty was bad luck, but I'd have put him on par with them coming off his 2018, though I give an extra nod to Greene and Melancon for their closing experience.

Yeah Greene's had way more closing experience than Arodys... those 66 career saves are certainly a ton more than Arodys' 50 career saves.

 

[clvclv]

It's taken me some time to come around on as well. I guess for me, the big disappointment is that out of all of the arms we acquired in the draft over the past 5+ years, we couldn't turn any into elite relievers who we could have for cheap.

The other thing about the Smith signing is, it's easy to look at only for this year. But the signing is also about the future and especially once we shed the big contracts of Melancon and Greene. We will still have an elite closer at a decent price, and then hopefully can surround him with some arms we've developed from the farm by that point.

There's no "couldn't" to it - they haven't tried.

With the stockpile of arms that was built up during the rebuild, there's been no explanation for not trying some of them in those roles - yet the organizational philosophy is to let them remain SPs until they pitch their way out of baseball. Now that the game is trending towards SPs not being allowed to go through a lineup more than twice, there's just no need for all these SPs at the upper levels. Touki should have been developed as a late-inning option for the last two years. I don't mind them giving Newk one more shot this spring, but if it doesn't work out well they shouldn't look to trade him to a team with no starting pitching - he should be developed as a late-inning weapon (and I'm not sure there are many good reasons to argue with someone that says that decision shouldn't have been made prior to last season).

Your player development system has done a great job in producing Soroka and Fried - producing 2 of your top 3 SPs from within is absolutely getting the job done. If you get one more SP that you can count on out of the Newk/Wright/Wilson/Anderson/Davidson/Wentz group and could work out reasonable extensions for one or both of Soroka and/or Fried before breaking camp in 2021 while producing Acuna/Albies/Pache/Dansby/Waters and a Catcher the rebuild would have to be considered a resounding success regardless of who gets the credit for it.

If you didn't want to spend money on the pen, the decisions to turn Touki and Newcomb into RPs should have been made quite a while ago, and the decision to turn Weigel and one of Davidson or Wentz into RPs should be made before breaking camp this spring.

 

[clvclv]

I hope Webb is healthy in 2020. I really missed seeing him pitch the second half. Also hoping Sobotka can finally figure his **** out. That arm is too talented to be wasted.

I think Webb gets Tomlin's spot while they send Touki, Sobotka, and possibly Minter down to throw fastballs for strikes (and possibly develop cutters they can actually count on) until their arms fall off. Don't think AA would have gone to the trouble of having 4 guys who could be legitimately counted on as Closers (I count O'Day in that group) to have those three guys come in walking the world with 5-6 run leads when you could be resting at least 2-3 of the late-game options when you've jumped out to a big lead before the 6th inning.

 

[Carp]

Yeah Greene's had way more closing experience than Arodys... those 66 career saves are certainly a ton more than Arodys' 50 career saves.

Reading is your friend. This closing experience remark was clearly directed at Minter, not Viz.

But since you want to argue:

Greene career WAR: 4.1
Viz career WAR: 2

Greene seasons with at least .5 WAR: 4 (including 2 seasons with at least 1 WAR
Viz seasons with at least .5 WAR: 2 (Zero seasons with at least 1 WAR)


Greene WAR 2019: .9
Viz WAR 2018: .3

Literally everything suggests Greene has been the better pitcher over his career by a good margin and is far more likely to better in 2020 than Viz was ever likely to be 2019. Again, anyone expecting much out of Viz in 2019 was being foolish.