Official Offseason Thread

Bumgarner would be one of the worst possible uses of our resources this offseason. If we want to go after some pitching then that's fine, as long as we effectively address our lineup needs as well. Giving up a pick and committing multiple years and dollars to a pitcher who hasn't had an xwOBA under .316 since 2016 is not the way to do that.

If we're gonna go after some pitching, at least go after someone like Wheeler who at least offers a sub .300 xwOBA with upside in the .270 range. I'm still not convinced that we really "need" to commit a bunch of money into pitching with our limited resources and glaring offensive holes when we have internal solutions to maintain a solid enough five man rotation.
 
If they actually aren't interested in Grandal and really are after MadBum, maybe the decision has been made to go after Moose to "replace" the pick. If the best guess was that AA was going to sign a 3B, a SP, and another bat (whether that was a corner OF or C) with ~ $45 million Grandal ($16 million AAV), Hamels ($15 million AAV), and Moose ($12 million AAV) would fit according to FG's projections...https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/free-agent-tracker

BUT

Bumgarner ($18 million), Ozuna ($16 million), and Moose ($12 million) would also fit if you cut Duvall loose. Then maybe add Avila to platoon with Flowers (or bring Cervelli back)?

The problem with that is that it makes bringing Markakis back really odd - it would seem like you'd be better off with Joyce as a bench player/pinch-hitter. Surely AA doesn't think he can convince Snitker to only use Markakis in that role.
 
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clvclv said:
If they actually aren't interested in Grandal and really are after MadBum, maybe the decision has been made to go after Moose to "replace" the pick. If the best guess was that AA was going to sign a 3B, a SP, and another bat (whether that was a corner OF or C) with ~ $45 million Grandal ($16 million AAV), Hamels ($15 million AAV), and Moose ($12 million AAV) would fit according to FG's projections...https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/free-agent-tracker

BUT

Bumgarner ($18 million), Ozuna ($16 million), and Moose ($12 million) would also fit if you cut Duvall loose. Then maybe add Avila to platoon with Flowers (or bring Cervelli back)?

The problem with that is that it makes bringing Markakis back really odd - it would seem like you'd be better off with Joyce as a bench player/pinch-hitter. Surely AA doesn't think he can convince Snitker to only use Markakis in that role.
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Duvall isn't going to be cut. He or Riley will be platooning with Markakis according to AA.
 
So MadBum might to get $72 million and cost a pick for years in which his value will be closer to the $20-25 million range?

I'm not a fan of that idea.
 
For those who want MadBum... are you crazy??

Dude was great at home but home happens to be the best park in the majors for pitchers. MadBum’s road line was as follows in 2019:

5.29 era
4.51 fip
4.91 xFIP

Julio Teheran in 2019:
3.81 era
4.66 fip
5.36 xFIP

That’s really what we want to pay a premium for? Basically you are paying for playoff experiences 3+ years ago.
 
zbhargrove said:
For those who want MadBum... are you crazy??

Dude was great at home but home happens to be the best park in the majors for pitchers. MadBum’s road line was as follows in 2019:

5.29 era
4.51 fip
4.91 xFIP

Julio Teheran in 2019:
3.81 era
4.66 fip
5.36 xFIP

That’s really what we want to pay a premium for? Basically you are paying for playoff experiences 3+ years ago.
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Exactly this. Outside of PacBell, he's going to become a home run machine. I'd guess he has one or two more years in him with 1+ WAR, none over 2, and would possibly become a midseason release candidate in the fourth season of the deal.
 
Pacheaholic said:
Cole will be looking at $25M a year and the Braves need to do it.
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I’m going to post this every day until Cole signs.

It will be fun to point out who the dumbest poster is now that clvderp is actually starting to string logical thoughts together.
 
The Chosen One said:
Duvall isn't going to be cut. He or Riley will be platooning with Markakis according to AA.
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Unfortunately for those of us around here, AA has rarely been pinned down in interviews - so I'm not real sure it's not possible even though it seems highly unlikely.

Someone mentioned earlier that there seems to be no buzz on our end when it comes to Grandal and while we all love for replacements to come from within, is he really putting all his eggs in the Pache/Waters basket for 2021? Would he stop trying to improve the offense for this year at replacing Donaldson with Moose? That means the other upgrade comes behind the plate or on an OF corner as everyone has surmised since all the other spots seem to be locked down. If the new "main goal" is to avoid bad contracts and dead money and the two are projected to make the same AAV, doesn't signing a 29 year old Ozuna as Freeman's "protection" make a little more sense than giving a 31 year old Grandal the same money considering the beating Catchers take?

I've said all along that I'd be thrilled with kicking the LF can down the road for one more year since I'm a Riley/Waters believer - especially if it meant AA was able to replace Donaldson/Mac/Julio with Moose/Grandal/SP upgrade. I'm not advocating for throwing additional years at Bumgarner, but we'd recover the draft pick when Donaldson signs elsewhere and he would provide that front-half of the rotation SP (careful not to read that as TOR) with serious big game and postseason experience that we don't have. Signing him, Moose, and Ozuna also leaves open the possibility (and pieces) that AA finally makes that deal for an inexpensive and controllable "Ace". Would Tampa really pass on a Waters/Wright offer for Snell?

We're all taking stabs in the dark at this point, but wouldn't having a Snell/Soroka/Fried/Bumgarner rotation for the next 4 years to go along with an offensive core of Acuna/Albies/Freeman/Ozuna/Moose make a lot of sense? With Melancon coming off the books next winter and Folty after that, you could use that money to tack a reasonable 2 year extension onto Freddie's deal and keep from paying him into his late 30s. A 2 year deal for Moose and a 4 year deal for Ozuna means you don't owe them anything beyond their age 33 seasons AND leaves you more time for Riley to develop - potentially into more of a utility guy who can hit in the middle of the order - playing 3B against tough lefties while also giving Ozuna and Freeman the occasional day off, and if the DH does finally arrive you could rotate all 4 of those guys through that spot to keep everyone's legs fresh.

With a Snell/Soroka/Fried/Bumgarner rotation plus up the middle defense from Flowers/Dansby/Ozzie/Pache/Ender, is there any reason (other than injuries of course) that that team wouldn't be a legitimate contender through 2023 (Snell's last controlled year)?
 
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Snell has over 100 million in surplus value. So yeah I'd day the Rays would definitely turn down Waters and Wright for Snell, even considering he's coning off an injury.

Snell is gonna cost Pache and Anderson to start with. That gets you about 90 million. Then we'll have to include another top 10 prospect like Wilson or De la Cruz.
 
Carp said:
Snell has over 100 million in surplus value. So yeah I'd day the Rays would definitely turn down Waters and Wright for Snell, even considering he's coning off an injury.

Snell is gonna cost Pache and Anderson to start with. That gets you about 90 million. Then we'll have to include another top 10 prospect like Wilson or De la Cruz.
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And that's perfectly fine - semantics. The point is that signing the "safer guy" in Ozuna frees up an OF prospect for trade and signing Bumgarner frees up a pitching prospect for trade.

One of our 2 OF prospects plus one of our top pitching prospects gets you that young, controllable "Ace". If De La Cruz needed to be included so that that "Ace" was Snell rather than others, would anybody really give a *hit??? It'd hurt more to lose Pache and Anderson instead, but would anyone here really care? Waters or Acuna will be just fine to replace Ender in CF whenever that time comes, and Anderson seems to have so many doubters around here it doesn't feel like many posters would care.

A Kluber/Hand deal would likely cost less in terms of prospects given up but if AA were to add $20 million in 2020 salaries with them, you'd have to stop adding offense with a Moustakas signing - you're not likely going to be able to add those two Pitchers, Moose, AND Ozuna with the money we assume AA has left. Maybe you could add the Pitchers, Moose, Garcia, and a backup C, and I wouldn't think that'd be a bad idea either. If the goal is to lengthen your window as much as possible doesn't Snell/Ozuna do that better?
 
clvclv said:
And that's perfectly fine - semantics. The point is that signing the "safer guy" in Ozuna frees up an OF prospect for trade and signing Bumgarner frees up a pitching prospect for trade.

One of our 2 OF prospects plus one of our top pitching prospects gets you that young, controllable "Ace". If De La Cruz needed to be included so that that "Ace" was Snell rather than others, would anybody really give a *hit??? It'd hurt more to lose Pache and Anderson instead, but would anyone here really care? Waters or Acuna will be just fine to replace Ender in CF whenever that time comes, and Anderson seems to have so many doubters around here it doesn't feel like many posters would care.

A Kluber/Hand deal would likely cost less in terms of prospects given up but if AA were to add $20 million in 2020 salaries with them, you'd have to stop adding offense with a Moustakas signing - you're not likely going to be able to add those two Pitchers, Moose, AND Ozuna with the money we assume AA has left. Maybe you could add the Pitchers, Moose, Garcia, and a backup C, and I wouldn't think that'd be a bad idea either. If the goal is to lengthen your window as much as possible doesn't Snell/Ozuna do that better?
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Except it's not semantics. Pache and Anderson are basically our top 2 prospects, and are valued at 60 FV and 55 FV respectively. Waters is a 55 FV and Wright is a 50 FV. You're talking about a difference of roughly 30 million in surplus value, at least going by the prospect rankings as we currently know them. Waters and Wright is nowhere remotely close to enough for Snell. That's barely half the surplus value of Snell, whereas Pache and Anderson is close to 90% of the surplus value of Snell, depending on how much surplus value you assign to him. I assumed roughly 104 million in surplus value based on 16 WAR over the next 4 seasons.
 
Carp said:
Except it's not semantics. Pache and Anderson are basically our top 2 prospects, and are valued at 60 FV and 55 FV respectively. Waters is a 55 FV and Wright is a 50 FV. You're talking about a difference of roughly 30 million in surplus value, at least going by the prospect rankings as we currently know them. Waters and Wright is nowhere remotely close to enough for Snell. That's barely half the surplus value of Snell, whereas Pache and Anderson is close to 90% of the surplus value of Snell, depending on how much surplus value you assign to him. I assumed roughly 104 million in surplus value based on 16 WAR over the next 4 seasons.
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I think you also have consider where a team is. Tampa will not trade Snell or Morton unless it is an overpay by the other team. This simply reflects the fact that they are in their window of contention. They have won 90 and 96 games over the past two years.

Detroit otoh has motivation to move someone like Boyd. Every day they hold on to him there is some depreciation.

Cleveland is sort of in between. Their window of contention will close in a couple years unless they find ways to acquire players with upside and many years of control left. So they are likely open to moving Lindor who has 2 more years before hitting free agency.

Those are the facts of life when trying to match up for trades.
 
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