CrazyTrain
Well-known member
He hit lefties pretty damn well last year. He had a better wOBA, wRC+ against LHPs than he did against RHPs.
Official Offseason Thread
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He hit lefties pretty damn well last year. He had a better wOBA, wRC+ against LHPs than he did against RHPs.
Even in a platoon role, Riley is still likely to get over 100 PAs vs RHP. And he really doesn't need to get more than that. He's pretty horrendous vs RHP and it isn't likely to change.
Why would there HAVE to be a trade involving Ender? What payroll is likely going to be doesn't really have any relevance to Ender.
What in his career numbers vs LHP suggest those numbers will be repeated?
Kinda just feel like they don't intend to platoon Riley - at least at the beginning of the season. I would expect they want him getting as many ABs (and seeing as many breaking balls) as is humanly possible, and being the short-side of a Markakis platoon - especially with Snitker making the lineup card out - isn't going to help him make adjustments at all.
If they sign Moose and he gets hot again, it'll always be easy to open a spot for him by cutting Duvall loose. If he can get into a groove at Gwinnett and Snitker proves he can follow orders, it wouldn't be hard to get him ABs after he's "found himself" again. He ought to be able to get a few of them while giving Freddie and Moose a little time off - surely they FORCE Snitker to give people more time off this year, particularly Freddie. If Riley and Pache get off to good starts in Gwinnett, I'd think it starts to become much easier seeing both in platoon roles after the break, with Acuna left alone in RF.
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It doesn't, but as of now Ender's likely our most expendable piece - and making his salary disappear can only help pay for an established SP if that is indeed the target. For instance, if you could convince the Indians that Ender would be an important part of a deal for Kluber and you let Greene walk you've got plenty of money left to bring Donaldson back, and you could re-sign Joyce to balance the lineup. There's no need to rush Pache, but he's going to be ready by midseason (if not before), and Acuna might not need to take a day off before he comes up.
It would be interesting to see what a Boyd trade would have to look like, but it just feels like AA wouldn't be any more inclined to meet Avila's demands now than he was in June or July. I just don't think Boyd fits the profile of someone AA's going to give up multiple assets - including one of our top 3 arms - for. He just doesn't seem to strike anyone as an Ace in waiting.
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JxnMissFan
Gwinnett Bound
So the 181 PA's against lefties last year should carry more weight than the 1000 plus AB's over the course of his career? I guess some players just figure it out once they hit 30.
Unfortunately, we can't see stats like Z-Contact% and O-Swing% (the bright red flags for Riley even when he was getting great results) splits against LHP/RHP.
We can get some useful bits of split data though:
K% vs RHP - 36.0%
K% vs LHP - 37.8%
BB% vs RHP - 3.6%
BB% vs LHP - 10.8%
BABIP vs RHP - .286
BABIP vs LHP - .323
HR/FB vs RHP - 18.0%
HR/FB vs LHP - 33.3%
Needless to say, his HR/FB rate and probably some of his BABIP vs LHP is completely unsustainable. Remove 3 of his HRs vs LHP to simulate a more reasonable 19% HR/FB rate, and his slash line vs LHP drops to .215/.297/.462...an OPS of .759.
And that isn't even regressing his .323 BABIP at all...he simply doesn't make enough contact.
I don't think Riley is the answer to any question at the MLB level at the beginning of 2020, not even vs LHP. He has a pretty good track record of making adjustments, so it would be foolish to give up on him, but he shouldn't be relied on to fill any role on a contending club right now.
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Russ2dollas
10 yr, $185 million Extension
To me the Riley problem is he has to learn how to hit And recognize mlb sliders. He can only do that in mlb. He’s the guy that needs to be on a rebuilding team that can let him learn. We are not that.
JxnMissFan
Gwinnett Bound
I've never followed his career close enough to have an opinion about this but, would Didi Gregorius be able to play 3rd? He's under 30 and his power seems to be increasing as he gets older and fills out. He should be in the 15 million per year range so he should fit in the Braves budget.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
A good chunk of his value is on defense at short. The bat wouldn't be anything special for a third baseman. Otoh he might be looking for a one-year deal to rebuild value.
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Forget hitting them. I'd be satisfied if he could simply recognize breaking balls. That itself would be a major improvement to his game, as it would increase his BB rate and decrease his K rate. I mean if he could even be a Dan Uggla/Brian Dozier type of player, I'd consider that a win. But with his current approach, I'm not sure he's an above average major league hitter, much less an above average 3b.
It is truly hard to overstate just how bad Riley's contact numbers were in 2019.
Since 2010 there have been 3109 player-seasons of 250+ PAs. Out of those 3109 seasons, Rileys Z-Contact% ranks as the 23rd worst.
https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.a...rtdate=2010-01-01&enddate=2019-12-31&sort=8,a
He was literally one of the worst 1% players the last 10 years at making contact with pitches in the strike zone.
The other terrible contact hitters had a much better O-Swing% than Riley's awful 41.3% rate, meaning that while they missed a lot, at least they didn't swing at bad pitches so often to compound the problem.
The comparisons to Gallo fail to realize that Gallo doesn't swing at nearly as many bad pitches as Riley, and Gallo's power is at least 2-3 grades higher than Riley's. Gallo's contact is much more impactful (literally) than Riley's and it helps to make up for his poor contact skills.
The only MLB hitter other than Riley and Alfaro the last 10 years to accumulate 250+ PAs while whiffing on more than 25% of the strikes he swung at and also swinging at more than 40% of the pitches outside the zone was a guy named Junior Lake in 2014.
https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4672&position=OF
No doubt he looked like a useful player after that flukey 2014 season. Even that guy swung at fewer bad pitches and made more contact than Riley did in 2019. He's playing in the Mexican League now...
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CrimeDog247
Spring Training Invitee
It’s sad that the Braves largest FA deal is B.J. Upton.
zbhargrove
Well-known member
Gross
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
extent
Russ2dollas
10 yr, $185 million Extension
I fixed the offseason and tradevalues.com said it was a minor overpay by the braves.
Indians are moving off guys. Trying to say in it but get more control. Need a CF.
Indians get: Inciarte, Riley, Swanson, Newk, Ian Anderson and Waters.
Braves get: Kluber, Lindor AND Ramirez
Ramirez is the real prize here. Lots of team control and fixes 3B.
Indians get a CF and down grade to get Anderson, Waters and team control of cheap guys with some upside.
Problems solved.
Indians are moving off guys. Trying to say in it but get more control. Need a CF.
Indians get: Inciarte, Riley, Swanson, Newk, Ian Anderson and Waters.
Braves get: Kluber, Lindor AND Ramirez
Ramirez is the real prize here. Lots of team control and fixes 3B.
Indians get a CF and down grade to get Anderson, Waters and team control of cheap guys with some upside.
Problems solved.
zbhargrove
Well-known member
It won’t ever happen but I’d do that in a heartbeat
BeanieAntics
Arbitration Eligible
Every person in Cleveland would suicide themselves. Not only would they lose their three biggest players for a terrible package, but they would still be in Cleveland. Too much to bear.