Official Offseason Thread

Southcack77 said:
Including inciarte in a trade:

Replacing him is a much smaller hole to address than not having a cleanup hitter.

In fact, you have an adequate defensive CF option in house and one in the minors projected to be ready by 2021.

You can find useful OF all over the place.
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Very valid point. I still think it will be hard to sell low on Ender right now.
 
thethe said:
What's the likelihood that Ender/folty are moved in some sort of package for haninger/Seager couple with a Bumgarner's acquisition?

That would bring payroll up to the 155 level right?
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Why in the world would the Ms move short term assets for short term assets? Just to accommodate holes on the Braves roster?
 
thethe said:
I get the sense that Folty wont be signing a ling term extension with the Braves so we can capitalize on his value similar to what the rays do. I want anderson to be our fifth starter so swapping out folty for Bumgarner brings more stability to the rotation and it allows is to develop one of our top prospects.

If need be we can trade folty to someone else for prospects if they are heavily weighting how he finished the year last year. I dont think it's crazy to project folty to have 6 WAR the next 3 seasons combined. That could get some really good pieces that can be flipped to seattle if like you say they are trying to rebuild.
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The time to trade Folty is either at the deadline if the Braves are out of contention, or next offseason.
 
bravesfanMatt said:
I don’t know. Seems counterproductive to flip a starter who is cheapish for the next two years and then buy an over 30 starter at 20+ million for five years.
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It absolutely is. thethe just has a hard on for MadBum. Makes zero sense to trade Folty and sign MadBum. It makes zero sense to sign MadBum period unless he'll accept something like 2/50 and we find a cheap clean-up hitter somewhere.
 
clvclv said:
With the asks for the current main guys still in the stratosphere and the assumption that the $25 million AAV (Donaldson-level) is the amount left to spend, why not hold on to all the young talent?


1.) Sign Ozuna to hit behind Freddie for 4/$68 million - $17 million AAV - you've already given up a pick, why not keep going?

2.) Sign Shaw to platoon with Camargo for 2/$10 million - $5 million AAV - replaces Markakis as the primary LH pinch-hitter next season.

3.) Re-sign Hechavarria as the defensive-minded backup for 1/$3 million - $3 million AAV

4.) Let Newk, Wright, Wilson, and Anderson duke it out for the 5th spot in the rotation while riding the Atlanta/Gwinnett shuttle until someone steps forward and takes the spot.



Buys Riley, Pache, and Waters the entire year in Gwinnett, and keeps all the trade chips in place in the event an unexpected trade for a controllable Ace or 3B drops into AA's lap.
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This is a solid plan if...

JD requires 4 years or obscene cash and a reasonable Bryant trade can't be put together.
 
Carp said:
In regards to your last point, wouldn't that also be true for Chicago? Couldn't they simply trade Bryant for dirt cheap MLB players and sign say, Kevin Pillar, and get similar production to what they would get from Ender?
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I'm not sure the Cubs have as attractive an in-house solution as Acuña, but in theory sure.

I'm not making a fake trade up, I'm reacting to whoever suggested the Cubs might ask for Inciarte. I agree it creates a hole, but I think the hole is in the cOF and it's an Inciarte sized hole not a Josh Donaldson sized hole.

I think Inciarte's usefulness expires when Pache is ready and with that being the case, I don't mind getting off the Braves obligation to him before it might become apparent that he's lost a step or will never be consistently healthy again. Sometimes it is like that with his kind of player.

Considering I also consider really good offense as much more valuable than really good defense, it's an easy tradeoff for me.
 
Carp said:
DBacks won 85 games last year with a Pythagorean of 88. Sure they'll have to find a way to replace Greinke's 140 innings of 2.90 ERA, but they're winning percentage actually increased after that trade. They're a solid 80-85 win team that could quite easily win 90 games with better luck.
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Still probably should not be holding on to 1 year deals, but if they see it differently, they see it differently. Obvious possibility at the deadline though, I guess, if they fall out.
 
Bumgarner's 2019 xwOBA by month:

March (25 PAs) .253
April (128 PAs) .323
May (152 PAs) .332
June (147 PAs) .344
July (117 PAs) .252
Aug (139 PAs) .257
Sept (133 PAs) .389

Total (841 PAs) .316

I'm sure folks will find trends and make statements like "he just wore down", or "he rounded back into form in July/Aug". Fact of the matter is Bumgarner showed himself to be a healthy #3/#4 who had a couple good months, and couple not so good months, all scattered around in a random manner...exactly how players tend to perform over a 162 game season.

There is nothing wrong with a team paying him to be a solid SP in the middle of their rotation for 3 years, maybe 4. That's the going rate for such pitchers. Bidding that gets into the $100M range after Wheeler "only" got $118M is absolutely absurd, and hopefully the Braves have nothing to do with it.
 
Southcack77 said:
I'm not sure the Cubs have as attractive an in-house solution as Acuña, but in theory sure.

I'm not making a fake trade up, I'm reacting to whoever suggested the Cubs might ask for Inciarte. I agree it creates a hole, but I think the hole is in the cOF and it's an Inciarte sized hole not a Josh Donaldson sized hole.

I think Inciarte's usefulness expires when Pache is ready and with that being the case, I don't mind getting off the Braves obligation to him before it might become apparent that he's lost a step or will never be consistently healthy again. Sometimes it is like that with his kind of player.

Considering I also consider really good offense as much more valuable than really good defense, it's an easy tradeoff for me.
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Has nothing to do with us really. My point was more focused on Chicago and their interest in Ender, not our willingness to trade. If finding a replacement OFer is so easy, why wouldn't Chicago just do that instead making Ender an important piece in a Bryant trade?
 
thethe said:
His first season back. We should all expect those numbers to improve based on the pitch data
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Madison Bumgarner in the five years before his injuries in 2017-

2016
Home: .548 OPS, 2.14 ERA, .241 wOBA
Away: .691 OPS, 3.39 ERA, .296 wOBA

2015
Home: .546 OPS, 1.94 ERA, .241 wOBA
Away: .688 OPS, 4.15 ERA, .296 wOBA (weird that his wOBA matched in '15 and '16)

2014 (The one outlier year)
Home: .698 OPS, 4.03 ERA, .307 wOBA
Away: .619 OPS, 2.22 ERA, .273 wOBA

2013
Home: .588 OPS, 2.33 ERA, .260 wOBA
Away: .569 OPS, 3.12 ERA, .255 wOBA

2012
Home: .586 OPS, 2.38 ERA, .254 wOBA
Away: .751 OPS, 4.40 ERA, .320 wOBA


Its important to remember that Bumgarner was beginning his decline BEFORE he started having injury problems, with his xwOBA jumping from the ~.270 range to the ~.320 range where it is now. But even before then, Bumgarner was aided a good bit by the ballpark that he played in. Outside of weird year in 2014 and a relatively even year in 2013, he had significant splits. His decline only exacerbated these issues and he had to lean even heavier on his home ballpark to maintain respectable overall lines. So unless you think that ALL these things are true, I would go nowhere near Bumgarner:

1. His velocity and spin rate jumps from last season were real and sustainable.
2. His xwOBA jumps from 2015 to 2019 were exclusively or mostly caused by his injuries and he has experienced little to no actual decline.
3. His injuries were purely flukes and there is no reasonable cause for further concern, outside the reasonable amount of concern you'd have for a pitcher who has logged 1800 innings.
4. His healthy home/away splits in '12, '15, and '16 were the outliers and the "true" Bumgarner was his '13 and '14 seasons.
5. Being one full year removed from those injuries, he'll be back to those '13/'14 performance levels.

If even one of those statements isn't true, then any team signing him should be extremely concerned. If more than one are true, then Bumgarner is going to end up being the worst signing of the offseason at the numbers currently being thrown around. I'm sorry, I'm not willing to give a guy with that many ifs 20-25 million dollars a year and I certainly wouldn't commit 4+ years to him. The most I would even consider for a guy like Bumgarner would be something like 3/55, and I'd be sweating bullets if I did that.
 
Hudson2 said:
I’m still trying to figure out how the Nats match up well with the Cubs? The Cubs aren’t wanting to rebuild but retool so what MLB ready pieces (especially pitching) do the Nats have to trade?
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Kieboom is a pretty fantastic centerpiece in a deal for Bryant. Better than Riley I would think. He was a top 20 overall prospect this time last year, rated as 60 FV. For reference, Pache is a 60 FV prospect right now.

Pitching wise, yeah they don't have much the Cubbies would want that's super close to the majors. Sterling Sharpe could be make an impact in 2020, but he isn't a particularly great prospect as this point. Wil Crowe seems like a Mat Wisler type and not in a good way. Fedde is a former top 100 prospect but will be 27 next year and has yet to really establish himself. If Cubs demanded pitching in return the Nats would have to get a 3rd team involved. May be trade Eaton or Doolittle and some cash to a 3rd team for a couple ML ready pitching prospects going the Cubs way.
 
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