His splits are as bad as Bumgarner's - stay away, stay very far away!!!
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His splits are as bad as Bumgarner's - stay away, stay very far away!!!
No...it is nothing like the logic behind Arenado to Atlanta.
The idea for Arenado is something like Riley for Arenado plus enough cash to make Arenado’s contract a positive. Something as simple as $5M-$10M per year he remains a Brave would make his contract quite valuable.
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This is correct. Google “coors field hangover effect” for more bathroom reading.
BeanieAntics
Arbitration Eligible
The Coors hangover effect is real, but it is somewhat sporadic and hard to predict exactly how much it affects each player individually. Its not obvious that the same kind of effect applies to other stadiums who are either extremely pitcher or hitter friendly and I have serious doubts that it would apply to any stadium other than Coors.
But regarding Bumgarner, its kinda hilarious that he ended up going to maybe the worst possible stadium, other than Coors, for his particular pitching profile. If anyone had any doubts regarding his home/road splits and declining peripherals, I think that those doubts are going to be cleared up in 2020.
BeanieAntics
Arbitration Eligible
Story would be interesting, but he'd almost certainly be more expensive than Arenado. He also gets a lot of his value from his plus defense at shortstop, so would your idea be to move someone else to 3rd or move him to 3rd? I'm not as concerned by his .300 point delta between his home/road OPS splits because I feel pretty confident that he'd be capable of a ~.825-.850 OPS without the hangover effect. At least more confident in him than I am in someone like Charlie Blackmon outside of Coors. But I'm still not sure he's as natural a fit for us as Arenado would be, outside of him being more financially palatable.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
We could use him either at third or short. In the latter scenario we would include Swanson in the trade. I've discussed a similar deal involving Lindor.
The financials are why I think Story is more plausible than Arenado.
BeanieAntics
Arbitration Eligible
I don't think I like the idea of adding Story to the current payroll while still leaving that hole at 3rd and cOF. If we could get Story without including Swanson and play him at 3rd, I'd be fine with that although I don't think it'd be ideal. But I don't get the idea of using our resources to improve at SS when it will limit our ability to improve at 3rd and/or cOF. Those positions need to be the priority until we run out of options. If Donaldson signs elsewhere and we run out of options at those positions, then maybe I would pivot to a Story-like move and just go with a cheaper options to fill the rest of the lineup. But that needs to be like plan G. Right now our main focus should be acquiring a natural improvement at 3rd base, with cOF as plan B.
With that being said, if a Story trade were paired with my previous idea of acquiring older, cheaper, versatile players then I could see ways to make it work. If we were able to pull a group like Story, Zobrist, and Shaw or a Story, Cabrera, and Holt then I think I would be okay with that offseason.
BeanieAntics
Arbitration Eligible
Agreed. I can only see the logic behind trying to improve SS if all our other options at 3rd and cOF have been exhausted.
bravesfanMatt
Steve Harvey'd
Just go get Bryant and leave this JD crap behind. Hopefully Riley figures out how to hit and we aren’t back here in 2 years.
It certainly seems like JD’s market is somewhat linked to Bryant’s service time ruling. The Braves can’t finalize a deal for Bryant until the ruling, so they can’t make their final offer to JD until they know whether or not Bryant is a better value. If JD is going to wait for the Braves final offer, that can’t come until Bryant’s case is final.
The choice is almost certainly going to come down to 3/4 years for JD vs a substantial prospect package for Bryant.
If it’s JD at 4/95 vs Bryant for a package of MiLB guys like Riley/Wilson/Touki, I think the choice is clear.
If it’s JD at 4/80 vs Bryant for a package of MLB guys like Ender/Anderson/Newj, I think the choice is equally clear.
The gray area in between is where the tough call lies. As long as Bryant can be had for any package not including MLB contributors or Pache, I think Bryant is the right move.
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BeanieAntics
Arbitration Eligible
Given our surplus of cheap young talent controlled long term, I'm reluctantly willing to add that fourth year for Donaldson. If the DH is added like some have suggested, that would make the deal even more palatable. But even without that, the prospect of a having 1 or 2 down years from Donaldson at a high AAV is worth what he'll bring to the team in 2020 and the bonus is that we'll keep all the young talent that we still have in the farm system. I hate the fact that we'll be giving up a significant amount of financial flexibility, but I think that we'll have some paths open up that will allow us to mitigate that loss in the future.
Freshmaker
Arbitration Eligible
Ugh - now I feel bad
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bravesfanMatt
Steve Harvey'd
Classy
