Official Offseason Thread
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NYCBrave
Well-known member
Article from Nationals beat writer stating they've all but moved on from Donaldson. Mind you, that statement is more based on their recent acquisitions.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/spor...leanup-hitter-how-will-starlin-castro-factor/
bravesfanMatt
Steve Harvey'd
If you go 4 guaranteed I would say 25, 25, 20, 18 as my final bid.
UNCBlue012
Well-known member
Thoughts on Keith Law's piece in which Riley is mentioned?
"I had concerns about Austin Riley’s bat speed going back to his pro debut, and that didn’t change even as he hit his way up the minors … until he reached the majors last year, and the bat speed became a contributor to his struggles at the plate, with a .279 OBP and 36.4 percent strikeout rate in his rookie season. Considering the possible scenarios for his future development, and the probabilities of each, requires some assumptions about what his main obstacles are (e.g., his slider bat speed) and whether they can be addressed."
Source: https://theathletic.com/1519736/2020/01/09/law-what-we-talk-about-when-we-talk-about-players/
I've said for a while that I think we need to sell high on Riley. I was really hoping we'd do that last year in a deal for Realmuto. I know he tends to be a slow starter at each minor-league stop, but his problems last year were way worse than people tend to realize. If it's me, I'd trade him in a heartbeat for a Byrant-type bat or arm like Clevinger (just a suggestion).
"I had concerns about Austin Riley’s bat speed going back to his pro debut, and that didn’t change even as he hit his way up the minors … until he reached the majors last year, and the bat speed became a contributor to his struggles at the plate, with a .279 OBP and 36.4 percent strikeout rate in his rookie season. Considering the possible scenarios for his future development, and the probabilities of each, requires some assumptions about what his main obstacles are (e.g., his slider bat speed) and whether they can be addressed."
Source: https://theathletic.com/1519736/2020/01/09/law-what-we-talk-about-when-we-talk-about-players/
I've said for a while that I think we need to sell high on Riley. I was really hoping we'd do that last year in a deal for Realmuto. I know he tends to be a slow starter at each minor-league stop, but his problems last year were way worse than people tend to realize. If it's me, I'd trade him in a heartbeat for a Byrant-type bat or arm like Clevinger (just a suggestion).
If that's close - and AA is in that ballpark - that's probably what's *issed Donaldson off and caused him to keep dragging this out in the hope that the Dodgers or Rangers jump back in.
He probably feels like he's worth $25 million per (and arguably rightfully so). Just a guess, but everybody involved (every team that has been mentioned over the last 2 months) agrees with him if that's over 3 years. If the 4th year is what it takes to get him, I wonder if anybody's even offering more than $15 million for it unless it's based heavily on incentives (particularly games played).
If he'd accept the 4th year as an option year, he'd probably already have gotten a deal that would've potentially maxed-out in that $100 million range.
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JD is starting to head down the path of pricing himself into a scenario where everybody has moved on. Seems he and his agent are in danger of overplaying their hand.
I’ve been all for selling high on Riley for over a year now, so I would love see a KB deal centered around Riley plus an arm.
I’ve been all for selling high on Riley for over a year now, so I would love see a KB deal centered around Riley plus an arm.
I'd probably go a a tiny bit higher than Matt on Donaldson, saying $75 for the first three years. That's expecting a WAR total of 8 1/3 - 9 3/8 for three seasons, which seems plausible. If you get a single 4 WAR season, he only needs to manage 4 1/2 or so in the other two combined. The fourth year gets awfully shaky for me though.
There is no guarantee that Pache and Waters will both be ready by the end of 2020. You call up Pache this year when he’s needed and do the same with Waters in 2021.
Acuna
Donaldson
Freeman
Bryant
Albies
Swanson
d’Arnaud
Inciarte
Markakis
Duvall
Camargo
Flowers
Hechavarria
This should be a championship level offense.
The problem here is that AA is stuck. Donaldson's being unreasonable. Riley isn't ready (if he even eventually may be). The Cubs and Rockies simply aren't being realistic.
This is the problem with the new numbers - if every GM places roughly the same value on every player, no one's particularly interested in going out on a limb or taking a chance.
We're right back to where we were last winter - holding onto imperfect prospects (Riley/Wright/Wilson/Anderson) in the hopes that they'll somehow improve and take that next step because of their potential rather than trading them for that last MLB-level piece or two that could push you over the top (even if those players have imperfections as well).
Nobody misunderstands the issues surrounding those decisions - and I don't blame the guys that have to make them for being gun-shy. It's just always going to be really boring in the future if all ownership intends to maximize each asset because no one's ever going to "go for it" since they're so job-scared. It's somewhat more reasonable from Liberty's perspective (although the success of The Battery is starting to offset the *hitty TV contract), but the Dodgers, Cubs, and Red Sox are starting to have to deal with fans' impatience. The Yankees bought themselves some time with the Cole signing, but their fans (in general) were beginning to become a bit frustrated as well.
This is the problem with the new numbers - if every GM places roughly the same value on every player, no one's particularly interested in going out on a limb or taking a chance.
We're right back to where we were last winter - holding onto imperfect prospects (Riley/Wright/Wilson/Anderson) in the hopes that they'll somehow improve and take that next step because of their potential rather than trading them for that last MLB-level piece or two that could push you over the top (even if those players have imperfections as well).
Nobody misunderstands the issues surrounding those decisions - and I don't blame the guys that have to make them for being gun-shy. It's just always going to be really boring in the future if all ownership intends to maximize each asset because no one's ever going to "go for it" since they're so job-scared. It's somewhat more reasonable from Liberty's perspective (although the success of The Battery is starting to offset the *hitty TV contract), but the Dodgers, Cubs, and Red Sox are starting to have to deal with fans' impatience. The Yankees bought themselves some time with the Cole signing, but their fans (in general) were beginning to become a bit frustrated as well.
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Again, where's the money to do that? If they had that kind of money, Donaldson would've already been signed.
was Riley's issue last year really bat speed? i feel like this is just another hill Law will die on because it's what he originally stated and won't move off it. but as enscheff has pointed out, it seems more his issue is he's guessing way too much. could that be because his bat is slow? idk, but i'm not sure Law is right here.
Definitely admit you have been on the sell high train with Riley and I definitely agree. We should maximize his value ASAP. If the Braves could bring in a Kris Bryant moving him and an arm definitely do it and move on from this Donaldson drama. Even if they resign Donaldson I'd still look at dealing him for a SP or OF that reasonably priced
Agreed. I remember when he first came up and was on fire, his exit velocity was really good (95ish, I think?) and then it dropped like rock when the hot streak was over. That to me doesn't speak to bat speed issues, it speaks to quality of contact. And his poor contact skills were really obvious to all.
When clv is able to determine this lineup is not affordable, it should be blatantly obvious to everyone.
That's a $170M-$175M opening day payroll.
Speed, as in the velocity of the bat at the point of contact? No, definitely not. Generating above average MLB exit velocities requires the bat to be traveling at MLB speeds. That is simple physics.
Speed, as in a short amount of time to whip the bat through the zone? Absolutely possible.
Speed, as in the amount of time it takes Riley to identify a pitch, decide to swing, and then fire his muscles to swing. Also definitely possible.
There is a reason Riley showed all the signs of being a pure guess hitter, even when he was going well. If it's a matter if just needing exposure to MLB breaking balls, his future is bright. If it's a physical inability to process pitches, or a lack of fast twitch muscles that cause him to guess, then he will probably go the way of Junior Lake.
I don't know how to determine that answer with the data publicly available.
Actually here's a better question...
If there's enough money available to sign Donaldson and trade for Bryant, why on earth wouldn't you simply sign Donaldson and Castellanos and keep all the prospects?
chop2chip
Well-known member
Given the Braves are in a competitive window, I think Donaldson needs to be a consistent contributor to maximize the number of postseasons. In an extreme example, I am not sure the Braves would be happy with one 10 WAR season and three 1 WAR seasons even though technically JD would justify a 4 yr / 104M contract.
GovClintonTyree
<B>Vencer a Los Doyers</B>
Seasons of 4,3,3,2 WAR would be worth $96M under nsacpi's $8Mx rule of thumb. Given that (excluding 2018 injury season) JD has averaged 7 bWAR six of the last seven seasons, it seems a reasonable expectation that he would earn his contract, even allowing for significant dropoff for aging.
I'd do something like $25/25/25/20M and feel pretty good about it. It might not even take that. Those suggesting he may have overplayed his hand are correct. Somebody may get a bit of a bargain.
GovClintonTyree
<B>Vencer a Los Doyers</B>
I'd look at the fourth year as the premium for doing retail business. As you point out, it's very reasonable - even likely - you get sufficient value in years 1-3 to justify the contract.
I don’t disagree about the payroll amount but I’m not sure we know for sure what our cap is. Bryant of course would be a pricy addition but the total commitment at 2 years is not that bad and also fairly low risk.