Official Offseason Thread

[The Tariff King]

You also have to factor in his salary but yeah, i wouldnt say it's unfair though. If Arenado also wants out, Rockies have zero leverage.

Salary doesn't hurt the Rockies because you're still getting at least 3 of his prime years at market rate. Yeah the back end of the contract is worrisome but you're not gonna convince them to eat money by sending Wright who's stuff looks meh and Wilson who's been getting hit a lot.

What good is Riley's power in coors if he can't get the bat on the ball? Again. Ludicrous homer offer.

 

[The Tariff King]

Umm, that trade package for Arenado is too much by an insane amount.

He carries roughly zero trade value right now. Any team wanting Arenado could have just bought Rendon and given up no prospect capital.

Any amount of cash the Rox throw in should be about the value of the return package they get.

On paper it might seem like too much, but the Rockies DON'T have to give him up. He can be unhappy and still get paid.

I don't see this hostage situation being beneficial for an inquiring team. Rockies will give up money but they're gonna want real prospects, not someone like Wilson or Wright. And Riley could be a flash in the pan if the league figures him out.

 

[zbhargrove]

That offer is not fair at all, only to a Braves homer is it fair.

He has almost no surplus value... that's more than fair. Probably too much to pay for someone and you have to still pay them $30 million a year for 7 years

No one is paying anywhere close to that Sav and if the Rockies are holding out for that kind of deal, he will remain a Rocky

 

[Southcack77]

Rockies say Nolan is off the table and he responded: “There’s a lot of disrespect from people there that I don’t want to be a part of,” Arenado said in a text. “You can quote that.”

Damn. He wants out.

So there is the first indication that he really wants out. We are a long way away from waiving opt outs or him making sense for Atlanta, but here we go.

Shouldn't really cost a lot to get him. 2 years of control with a huge guarantee.

 

[The Tariff King]

Are they covering 50% of his salary?

He’s simply not worth that much. Even if he’s a 6 WAR player the next two years, that’s maybe $30-40m in SV, and ensures he opts out; if he’s worse—say he declines with the bat away from Coors—it’s obviously less SV, and increases the chance he doesn’t opt-out, which is where all the downside risk lies.

Even if you downgrade Riley from 55 to 50 FV, that’s still almost $30m in value alone.

The Rockies may indeed insist on a haul, but they shouldn’t get one, and I really hope it’s not from Anthopoulos.

I'm just not very high on Riley as I was last offseason.

His approach and plate discipline is very flawed and much concerning. I think any front office worth a damn would know even Riley's hot start was overshadowed by his miserable cool down racking up K's, not many BB's and one of the worst swing and miss rates in the bigs. That's very alarming.

 

[Southcack77]

On paper it might seem like too much, but the Rockies DON'T have to give him up. He can be unhappy and still get paid.

I don't see this hostage situation being beneficial for an inquiring team. Rockies will give up money but they're gonna want real prospects, not someone like Wilson or Wright. And Riley could be a flash in the pan if the league figures him out.

One reason they had to explore a trade is that they aren't going anywhere and only control him for two years.

 

[jpx7]

Salary doesn't hurt the Rockies because you're still getting at least 3 of his prime years at market rate. Yeah the back end of the contract is worrisome but you're not gonna convince them to eat money by sending Wright who's stuff looks meh and Wilson who's been getting hit a lot.

What good is Riley's power in coors if he can't get the bat on the ball? Again. Ludicrous homer offer.

You’re so worried about not being a Braves homer that you’ve stumbled into some really incorrect takery here.

 

[jpx7]

I'm just not very high on Riley as I was last offseason.

His approach and plate discipline is very flawed and much concerning. I think any front office worth a damn would know even Riley's hot start was overshadowed by his miserable cool down racking up K's, not many BB's and one of the worst swing and miss rates in the bigs. That's very alarming.

There’s always risk with players, especially less-tested ones. But you’re both discounting Riley’s potential (which I was never that high on, but it’s still there) and moreover discounting the massive risks of Arenado’s contract, which have to be incorporated into any valuation of him for trade purposes.

 

[chop2chip]

On the surface, an Arenado trade should resemble a Stanton trade, however, there’s some not so subtle differences. Arenado didn’t have near the same injury concerns that Stanton had; plus the Rockies since their inception have retained and valued their own stars arguably better than any team in baseball (Miami would be the opposite).

The only way a trade for Arenado even comes close to market rate (8-9 million per WAR) is if Arenado continues to pressure the team through the media, which results in (1) prospect package requirements coming down and (2) Arenado waives the opt out clause in his contract. Otherwise, I just can’t imagine a team paying what Denver can afford to accept to save face with their fan base.

 

[The Tariff King]

One reason they had to explore a trade is that they aren't going anywhere and only control him for two years.

Correct me if I'm wrong but Arenado has the opt-in?

I highly doubt his agent will agree with him that waiving the opt-in to pkay for a contender for a few years is a good idea and throw away the rest of the contract he has now.

Nolan got way way way alot of money. He either opts-in and keeps playing in Colorado unhappily during the rebuild, or he goes to another team and puts up less numbers and opts-in anyways.

I know Arenado isn't happy but I don't think he's im going to throw away almost 200,000,000 guaranteed by waiving the opt-in in a trade unhappy. He has leverage with the opt-in.

Rockies can't unload him unless they eat up money, and they're not gonna do that for maybe prospects like Wright and Wilson. They will want someone like Pache or Anderson who has more upside and have star potential. I'm not that high on Anderson.

 

[The Tariff King]

On the surface, an Arenado trade should resemble a Stanton trade, however, there’s some not so subtle differences. Arenado didn’t have near the same injury concerns that Stanton had; plus the Rockies since their inception have retained and valued their own stars arguably better than any team in baseball (Miami would be the opposite).

The only way a trade for Arenado even comes close to market rate (8-9 million per WAR) is if Arenado continues to pressure the team through the media, which results in (1) prospect package requirements coming down and (2) Arenado waives the opt out clause in his contract. Otherwise, I just can’t imagine a team paying what Denver can afford to accept to save face with their fan base.

Exactly. And right now I don't see Arenado doing that.

The only way it satisfies the fan base trading him is if they got our big fish like Pache or Anderson/Waters.

Arenado can bitch and moan but this isn't a Miami situation where Loria was just always cheap and wanted to unload Giancarlo anyways.

I'm sure the Rockies wouldn't mind eating some money but they're not going to do it for guys like Wright and Riley.

 

[jpx7]

On the surface, an Arenado trade should resemble a Stanton trade, however, there’s some not so subtle differences. Arenado didn’t have near the same injury concerns that Stanton had; plus the Rockies since their inception have retained and valued their own stars arguably better than any team in baseball (Miami would be the opposite).

The only way a trade for Arenado even comes close to market rate (8-9 million per WAR) is if Arenado continues to pressure the team through the media, which results in (1) prospect package requirements coming down and (2) Arenado waives the opt out clause in his contract. Otherwise, I just can’t imagine a team paying what Denver can afford to accept to save face with their fan base.

You’re probably right, which is why I’ve always said I don’t see an Arenado trade happening, and likewise that there aren’t a lot of scenarios where it’s a smart move for the Braves.

That doesn’t change the fact that the proposed Inciarte+Riley+Wright+Wilson is a substantial overpay, not a homerific low-ball offer.

 

[The Tariff King]

Umm, that trade package for Arenado is too much by an insane amount.

He carries roughly zero trade value right now. Any team wanting Arenado could have just bought Rendon and given up no prospect capital.

Any amount of cash the Rox throw in should be about the value of the return package they get.

Yes but Rendon is not on the table anymore. Neither is JD.

Is there a star 3B on the level of Arenado or Rendon going into FA next year?

Front offices can miscalculate how much players are going to go for. It's not like they know every offer out there unless an agent purposely says this team is offering x amount are you gonna match it or not.

There could be a team out there who missed out on Rendon, but would give up a bit more prospect capital if it meant COL is eating more money. But there's still the issue of convincing Arenado to waive his opt-in which I find highly unlikely for him to do even being unhappy in COL.

 

[Carp]

First of all there's no way the Rockies would even take that offer.

Ummm... What? The Rox FO would be incredibly happy if they got anything close to that offer without eating at least 50 million of his deal. No one is giving the Rox anything of value for Arenado at full price. They could've simply signed Rendon if that were the case.

 

[Carp]

Yes but Rendon is not on the table anymore. Neither is JD.

Is there a star 3B on the level of Arenado or Rendon going into FA next year?

Front offices can miscalculate how much players are going to go for. It's not like they know every offer out there unless an agent purposely says this team is offering x amount are you gonna match it or not.

There could be a team out there who missed out on Rendon, but would give up a bit more prospect capital if it meant COL is eating more money. But there's still the issue of convincing Arenado to waive his opt-in which I find highly unlikely for him to do even being unhappy in COL.

You're missing the point. If teams weren't comfortable signing Rendon at a similar contract to what Arenado signed, what makes you think any team would want the right to pay Arenado that much along with giving up a heavy haul of prospects? It just isn't going to happen.

 

[Enscheff]

It feels like this is the 9th time this month we’ve hashed out why Arenado has very little trade value.

 

[The Tariff King]

You're missing the point. If teams weren't comfortable signing Rendon at a similar contract to what Arenado signed, what makes you think any team would want the right to pay Arenado that much along with giving up a heavy haul of prospects? It just isn't going to happen.

My point being was, some teams could have bid for Rendon and been shocked at the final amount he went for. And they could use some of their better prospects to leverage the Rockies to eat up salary for a lower AAV than what Arenado currently gets.

Some teams have money, some teams don't but have prospects. We're obviously in that middleground these days. Right now we were rumored to be willing to pay a 34 yr old JD like 25 million AAV. Arenado is getting 35 AAV. Perhaps AA would be more inclined to pay Arenado at 28-30 AAV with him being 5 years younger than JD.

I don't think teams bidding on Rendon and missing out and Arenado being semi-available go hand-in-hand 100%

It's a win-now situation which we've already gone into great depths about flags flying and testosterone. So don't feel we need to revisit it.

 

[jpx7]

I could see the Rockies netting one great prospect back, plus a little more, if they’d throw in $65m. That way, the receiving team either nets two great years for free, and Arenado opts out, or he’s a $23m AAV player who you hope provides enough 4+ WAR seasons over the life of the deal to balance out those final mid-30s campaigns.

 

[chop2chip]

Ummm... What? The Rox FO would be incredibly happy if they got anything close to that offer without eating at least 50 million of his deal. No one is giving the Rox anything of value for Arenado at full price. They could've simply signed Rendon if that were the case.

If there were no opt out, then I could see a scenario where a team would give up a top prospect for the right to the market value contract. While you could argue any team could have signed Rendon for that contract, there’s no guarantee Rendon would have signed. Plus, a team could simply value Arenado more so than Rendon (or vice versa). We see this in free agency all the time. A team may be interested in one player at market value and not in another.

Regardless, the different trade requirements with Arenado opting in vs opting out are so substantial there is simply no way it happens without some team being extremely desperate.

Only way a trade works is if Arenado either announces he’s so upset with the Rockies that he’s opting out or he agrees to waive the opt out in return for either a trade kicker or additional guaranteed year added to his contract.

The most likely outcome is he plays out the next two years in Denver and signs with the team of his choosing. Denver will be left with nothing but nothing is about what they can reasonably hope for with a contract with no surplus value.

 

[BeanieAntics]

1) Wright in his limited time up has been hit or miss more miss.
2) Wilson in his limited time up has been mostly been getting hit.
3) Riley cooled off big time and his plate discipline, K's, and swing and miss numbers would be a big worry for any GM looking to acquire him.
4) Inciarte what would they need him for? He's cheap but he's also been unlucky with injuries and he'll be a free agent in a year or two.

There has to be upside for a GM to want to pull the trigger on that deal. The only people who think that's a fair offer are Braves homers who overvalue these players way more than other teams do. They'd have control over Wilson and Wright but those two are getting hit in Atlanta right now do you think Colorado would believe they'd suddenly go to COORS and fulfill their potential?

Again, it's an asinine offer.

How much freaking money are the Rockies sending over in your mind to dismiss that package as asinine? If they are sending money, that trade is a massive overpay. Those prospects have value. Riley has value. You can argue over how much depending on individual evaluations of the players. Its arguable whether Arenado has any value at all. You'd have to be confident that 1: he will opt in and 2: that he will produce more than 30 WAR over the next 7 years for him to be worth anything in surplus value, much less the ~50ish million that the above offer represents.