Official pre-Draft thread

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Baseball America's newest mock has us taking Austin Beck at 5: http://www.baseballamerica.com/draf...ad-still-wide-open-draft/#wOmPbXMjLSsIAFuO.97

"Atlanta’s strong pitching depth in the minors won’t keep them from drafting another pitcher with their first pick. They’re expected to be evaluating North Carolina preps McKenzie Gore and Austin Beck down to the last minute as well as top college arms such as Wright and Florida’s Alex Faedo. Don’t rule them out on Lewis, though, if he’s available at 5."

Some interesting nuggets from it:

-Hunter Greene and family are trying to get him to San Diego at 3. Greene may soon stop pitching this spring to try to make the fall happen.
-Kyle Wright had his first elite start of the spring and is up to 4.
-Royce Lewis has had a questionable spring with questions about his hit tool.
 
cajunrevenge said:
I like toolsy high upside players HS hitters but I like for them to have some natural contact ability. A player like Cody Johnson was considered high upside because he had huge power, all he needed to do was learn how to make contact. That's not high upside to me. If you cant make contact consistent contact vs fastballs then God help you when it comes to breaking pitches.
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Just depends on what the real issue is. They are projecting Adell to have more work to do in that area, or at least they were at this time last year. That doesn't mean he's Cody Johnson...if he was, he certainly wouldn't be projected as a possible top 10 pick. We took Johnson 24th and that was considered a reach.

All I know is that Adell's tools outside of his hit tool are all pretty much top of the scale, and so far this year he's hitting .538 with 13 HR, 20 BB, and 4 K. Now, that's obviously HS so it's hard to tell what those numbers mean, but it's definitely better than he did last year.
 
At this point, it looks like plan A will be Beck or Lewis if either drops to us. If both are gone plan B should be the highest upside pitcher, and that could well be a college pitcher (Wright or Bukauskas) this year.
 
CJ9 said:
Beck's videos are so impressive because of the bat speed, but it seems like there are very real questions about him against elite pitching because the ACL tear kept him off the showcase circuit most guys see a lot of. That scares me about him.
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FWIW, the concerns about players not seeing "elite competition" are often a bit overblown IMO. Every situation is different of course, but you've got the ultimate outlier in Trout (who that was mentioned as a concern with) - plus that was the knock on MadBum and Greg Holland, both of whom came from the same general area with that perceived lack of competition.
 
smootness said:
Just depends on what the real issue is. They are projecting Adell to have more work to do in that area, or at least they were at this time last year. That doesn't mean he's Cody Johnson...if he was, he certainly wouldn't be projected as a possible top 10 pick. We took Johnson 24th and that was considered a reach.

All I know is that Adell's tools outside of his hit tool are all pretty much top of the scale, and so far this year he's hitting .538 with 13 HR, 20 BB, and 4 K. Now, that's obviously HS so it's hard to tell what those numbers mean, but it's definitely better than he did last year.
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That wasnt a comment about any specific player just a general statement about my draft philosophy and a point about how I think the term "high upside" can be misused. At this point though I am hoping we take a HS hitter to pair with Maitan. Braxton Davidson might not have turned out well so far but he was a lot of what I look for in a hitting prospect.
 
It wouldn't surprise me if we did. Last year I was sure we'd take Lewis if he was there and the pick was Anderson. So who knows what'll happen.
 
WaitingFor2017 said:
Jon Heyman said yesterday that he fully expects Atlanta to take a pitcher with the 5th pick. It wouldn't be such a surprise.
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It might end up being similar to last year when they had a hitter at the top of their list, but he was gone by the time they picked. I think Beck and Lewis will be their target, but good chance both are gone by the time they pick. In which case they go to plan B. I just hope if they go to plan B they choose the highest upside pitcher, whether he be a college or HS pitcher.
 
from UNC Athletic Communications

PITTSBURGH --- Tyler Lynn had three hits and drove in three runs to lead No. 3 North Carolina past Pittsburgh 5-2 Friday night at Cost Field. J.B. Bukauskas allowed two runs on five hits and struck out eight over 6.2 innings to improve to 7-0 on the year as the Tar Heels reached the 30-win mark for the 20th consecutive season.



Brandon Riley added three hits of his own and Josh Hiatt worked the final 2.1 innings for his 11th save of the year. The win was the seventh straight for Carolina (30-8, 15-4 ACC) to open a league series and it also clinched a spot for the Tar Heels in the 2017 ACC Baseball Championship next month in Louisville.



Pitt (16-19, 7-12 ACC) got off to a dream start as Jacob Wright led off the home half of the first with a towering home run to right. But Bukauskas was his dominant self from there, allowing just four singles and pushing his season strikeout total to 89. The junior right-hander retired nine straight at one point and didn't allow a Panther to advance past second until Pitt scored in the seventh.



Hiatt entered after a dropped third strike loaded the bases, but the freshman closer got Frank Maldonado to ground out to third to end the threat. Hiatt allowed just a pair of walks over the final two innings to pick up his 11th save and move into sole possession of seventh place on the UNC single-season list.



Lynn's first hit of the day started the scoring for Carolina in a three-run fourth. The senior outfielder singled home Riley, who scored just ahead of the throw from Nico Popa. Logan Warmoth gave the Tar Heels the lead for good later in the frame with a two-run single back up the box off Pitt starter Josh Mitchell (1-4).



Lynn doubled home Riley in the fifth and then singled home Kyle Datres in the seventh to push the UNC lead to 5-1.



Pitt got the tying run to the plate in the ninth, but Hiatt froze Yaya Chentouf to end it.



The series continues Saturday at 3 p.m.
 
cajunrevenge said:
I like toolsy high upside players HS hitters but I like for them to have some natural contact ability. A player like Cody Johnson was considered high upside because he had huge power, all he needed to do was learn how to make contact. That's not high upside to me. If you cant make contact consistent contact vs fastballs then God help you when it comes to breaking pitches.
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I agree. If a kid can't hit, a kid can't hit. Hitting is the most important tool for a kid to have.

If there are questions about the hit tool in HS....no thanks.

If there are questions about the hit tool in college and the guy doesn't already have major power...no thanks.
 
clvclv said:
FWIW, the concerns about players not seeing "elite competition" are often a bit overblown IMO. Every situation is different of course, but you've got the ultimate outlier in Trout (who that was mentioned as a concern with) - plus that was the knock on MadBum and Greg Holland, both of whom came from the same general area with that perceived lack of competition.
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Is that really "often overblown"? Or is it more like "once in a while overblown and here are a few high profile examples in an attempt to prove myself right"?
 
Enscheff said:
I agree. If a kid can't hit, a kid can't hit. Hitting is the most important tool for a kid to have.

If there are questions about the hit tool in HS....no thanks.

If there are questions about the hit tool in college and the guy doesn't already have major power...no thanks.
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So you would potentially be ok with a college player with a questionable hit tool but major power? But not a HS player with a questionable hit tool but major power?

I would much rather take the chance on the HS kid. A college player with a questionable hit tool is extremely unlikely to ever develop that tool. A HS player absolutely can.
 
The guys selected in the Top 5 are high ceiling and high floor. Within those parameters we should look for the one with the highest ceiling.

Players selected with pick #24 (which is where Cody Johnson was) generally are not high ceiling and high floor. To get a high ceiling player with a pick in that part of the draft you need to take a gamble on a player who has more of a risk of being a bust. Not that I would be against doing something like that. But my point is going for highest ceiling with pick 5 entails a lot less risk than going highest ceiling with pick 24.
 
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