Official Prediction Thread: 2017 MLB Season (Braves Only)

76-79 wins is what I will say at this point. 2.5 position players just doesn't cut it. Can't win win 2, maybe 3 guys that are 2+ WAR types.
 
cajunrevenge said:
I could write a lot about what went into each but I am stuck on mobile. Short version.

Tehran and Vizcaino were high risk for TJ surgery in a study on TJ rIsk I looked at. It was actually about last year but the injury is very much a wear and tear injury so I only see the chances going up this year. I think it's almost an inevitability for all pitchers. I think that injury and a few too many blown saves is going to Doom our playoff chances but we should be in it till the end with the second wild card.

With Garcia I am banking on free agent year magic and a strong infield defense working well with his GB%. I think Dickey is still a quality pitcher but he shouldnt in the AL. Colon is a guy I even suggested we sign, people put too much stock I'm his age and weight. I care about the results and he has put up good results that aren't Jorge Sosa type flukes. I think he gets replaced by one of our prospects forcing the Braves hand. Folty I think is ready to establish himself as a top young starter. Little worried about his injury history so I figure he misses a few starts.

For the position players, not a big believer in Flowers or Adonis. Would love to be wrong but they are a little old to be figuring it out now. I have been predicting a big peak for Freeman for the last few years and he is at the prime age to have a career year. For Albies don't take that as saying he will be a busy. Not everyone is a stud with the bat right away. I don't think will start the year with Atlanta so this is assuming half a season or less of playing time. I think there is more to why they moved him back to AAA than what they told us. If he stayed at AAA and didn't hit his stock would be a good but lower right now. With Peterson/Ruiz I expect them to be used to their platoon advantage. I am buying in Rodriguez, I don't think he hits for quite that much power but I think we got a steal here.

I think Markakis will be mostly the same, I take his second half as a good sign but I can't quite predict a .400 or better slugging% when he hasn't done that in a long time. With Ender I think he will have a breakout year, he has improved every year in the majors so far. With Kemp I think he will get into shape this off-season but I have a hard time predicting him to hit more than .280. I think most of that improvement will come in his defense and power. With Mallex it's all about that OBP. .320 isn't that bad for someone with his speed. I expect to see it improve over time.

All projections are just throwing **** on the wall and seeing what sticks. The only thing that is predictable in baseball is that baseball is unpredictable. Production while healthy might be somewhat predictable but injuries throws everything out of whack. Not just injuries but playing hurt.
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Thanks for your explanations. My question about throwing stuff up against the wall was really asking if you made your predictions as a lark without much thought, but your explanation was sufficient to clear up things for me. I am thinking you're unnecessarily pessimistic on Albies, but I don't expect him to hit .300 out of the gate, either. Hope the fears for JT are unfounded, but we won't know till we know.
 
I won't pretend to guess the record. I'll say we'll be the Marlins who will play meaningful baseball, but come up short of the 2nd Wild Card.

Rotation

Folty busts out with injury is replaced with Wisler and we talk about why we did not trade him when we could this offseason.

Jaime is traded in July and replaced Newcomb

We decide to keep Colon and play up his quest for Juan Marichal's record in hopes to bring fans out and get exposure in the D.R. We'll even live stream his games in the D.R. for free..or something along those lines.

Julio has another good season.

Pen

Arodys and Kroll are traded in May or June and replaced with Minter and Dirks.

Mauricio struggles and gets sent back down to cut down on the walks or is sold high before then.

Jose Ramirez proves to be a stud we're happy to have found and steals some saves away from Jim Johnson

Weigel comes out of the pen in ATL for a while when we think we're in it to keep his innings down after not pitching many innings in College, as we prepare to introduce him in to the rotation in 2018.

Outfield

Ender has a solid year, but misses some time with an injury he gets being Ender. Mallex plays well in his place causing us to rethink his role when Ender returns.

We decide to trade Markakis back to Baltimore for some arms we know nothing about that our new coaches suggest us acquiring to make room for Ender when he returns from injury and keep Mallex in CF.

We talk about trading Kemp in July, but decide to hold on to him due to lack of power and some fans get pi$$ed we didn't.

Infield

Freeman proves last year was not a fluke and gets his 3rd top 10 MVP season.

Sean Rodriguez becomes a fan favorite and takes over at 3B full time when Albies comes up.

Adonis is traded to an AL team.

Swanson goes through some rough patches, but still makes the play or steals the base at the right time where he develops the "clutch" trait causes 26 pages about his quantifiable value.

Albies comes up and provides a spark. He plays some SS when Jace is playing well and Swanson is not and a debate rages on if he should be the full time SS for a week or two.

Catcher

Catcher is a mess. Tuffy and Freitas both get some action with the big league club. Freitas plays the best out of everyone and we talk about keeping him.
 
I know this sounds bad, but I hope the vet pitchers don't do "just" well enough that we...

1. Don't trade any of them even if some of our young guys are ready.

2. Maybe even make a few trades at the deadline (giving away some good players), in the effort to make the playoffs...when we really would have no realistic chance to win a championship.

I think low end 70, but this team could realistically win 80+ with some luck.
 
jimsnores said:
Thanks for your explanations. My question about throwing stuff up against the wall was really asking if you made your predictions as a lark without much thought, but your explanation was sufficient to clear up things for me. I am thinking you're unnecessarily pessimistic on Albies, but I don't expect him to hit .300 out of the gate, either. Hope the fears for JT are unfounded, but we won't know till we know.
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I will be the first to say that projecting prospects to the majors is futile. I try and keep a few things in mind when projecting prospects rookie performance. The playing surfaces are not MLB quality in the minors. Many if the defenders are terrible by MLB standards. This helps a prospect like Albies the most. There are a lot of groundballs he hit that went for hits that gold glove infielders are going to turn into outs. I do generally expect a power increase when they hit the majors. I think a lot of our minor league parks are tough to Homer in.

What I think is going to cause Albies to struggle at first is that pitchers are going to go right after him because he has little power. He will still get his fair share of walks because some pitchers can't throw strikes and because he will get deeper into counts as he fouls off more pitches. That's how it generally works with contact hitters.
 
Here is how I get to my expected total of 80 wins. Projections are mine:

Replacement level: 48
Plus bench and pen (5): 53
Teheran(3.5): 56.5
Folty (2): 58.5
Garcia (2): 60.5
Dickey (2): 62.5
Colon (1.5): 64
First (5): 69
Second (1): 70
Short (1.5): 71.5
Third (1): 72.5
Right (1.5): 74
Left (1.5): 75.5
Center (3.5): 79
Catcher (1): 80

This is the baseline. I like having a pitcher of Wisler's quality a phone call away in AAA. I assume Albies will be called up around mid-season to shore up the infield. As I mentioned in my prior post in this thread, if Lady Luck is on our side this season we will be in the wild card hunt to the very end.
 
April:

3@Mets: 0-3
3@Pirates: 1-2
2@Marlins: 1-1
4 Padres: 3-1
3 Gnats: 1-2
3@ Phillies: 1-2
3@Mets: 1-2
3@Brewers: 2-1

Record after April: 10-14

May

4 Mets: 2-2
3 Cards: 1-2
2@Stros: 0-2
3@Marlins: 1-2
2@BlueJays: 1-1
2 BlueJays: 1-1
3 Gnats: 1-2
4 Pirates: 2-2
3@ Giants: 0-3
3@ Angels: 2-1

May Record: 11-18
YTD Record: 21-32

June
3@Reds: 3-0
4 Phillies: 2-2
3 Mets: 2-1
3@Gnats: 1-2
3 Marlins: 2-1
4 Giants: 2-2
3 Brewers: 3-0
3@ Padres: 2-1
1@ A's: 0-1

June Record: 17-10
YTD Record: 38-42

July

1@A's: 1-0
2 Astros: 0-2
4@Gnats: 1-3
All Star
3 D'Backs: 1-2
3 Cubs: 0-3
4@Dodgers:1-3
3@D'Backs:1-2
4@Phillies:1-3

July Record: 6-18
Record at All Star Break: 40-47
YTD Record: 44-60 (Horrible July)
Coaching Staff Fired
Attendance drops to ~15,000 per game

August

3 Dodgers: 2-1
3 Marlins: 2-1
2 Phillies: 2-0
3@Cards: 1-2
4@Rockies:1-3
3 Reds: 3-0
3 Mariners: 1-2
3 Rockies: 2-1
3@Phillies: 1-2
1@Cubs: 0-1

August Record: 15-13
YTD Record: 55-73

September

3@Cubs: 1-2
3 Rangers: 1-2
4 Marlins: 3-1
3@Gnats: 1-2
3 Mets: 2-1
3 Gnats: 2-1
3 Phillies: 2-1
3@Mets: 1-2
3@Marlins: 2-1

September Record: 15-13
YTD Record: 70-86

October
1@Marlins: 1-0
Working off MLB Schedule, something obviously wrong since doesn't add up to 162. I'll give the Braves the benefit of the doubt on the missing 5 games and go with a final record of:

76-86

Attendance starts strong, then settles in at about 15-20,000 per night as the front office finds out that the illusion of a competitive team only brings in the illusion of fans in seats.

Colon and Dickey both crash and burn as age catches up.
Garcia pitches well but is hurt a good bit and traded at the deadline.
Folty works his way into the 3.5 era range.
So does Teheran.
Johnson regresses and loses the closer role.
Kemp shows up in shape, and pulls a muscle (an under-rated fact is that you can't pull fat)
3B is a black hole, as is catcher.
Albies is brought up in August after the Braves are out and have traded SRod and Peterson.
Inciarte, Freeman and Swanson are pretty much the only offense.
 
Attendance will be interesting to watch. A benchmark to consider is the Pirates move to PNC Park in 2001.

2000 21,591 per game 69-93 record
2001 30,834 62-100
2002 23,148 72-89

2016 Braves attendance 24,949 68-93
2017 I would predict 40,000 with a team that wins 80-85 games
2018 I think will be down to the 35,000-38,000 range with a team slightly above .500
 
nsacpi said:
Attendance will be interesting to watch. A benchmark to consider is the Pirates move to PNC Park in 2001.

2000 21,591 per game 69-93 record

2001 30,834 62-100

2002 23,148 72-89

2016 Braves attendance 24,949 68-93

2017 I would predict 40,000 with a team that wins 80-85 games

2018 I think will be down to the 35,000-38,000 range with a team slightly above .500
Click to expand...

I think your '17 number is optimistic. 32-35k is possible.

Braves fans have historically packed the stadium on weekends and gotten about 17,000 weeknights. Now, a goodly portion of that poor in-week attendance was having a no-fun park area and dangerous neighborhood of Summerhill, and I've seen the maps showing where Braves season ticket holders live, but the new location will still be a huge challenge. The city emanates 40 miles from the center in virtually every direction. They're still going to struggle weeknights. From my former hood up in Gwinnett, and even from North Fulton and Forsyth, a Cobb stadium - especially one with difficult entrance and egress - does almost no good.
 
GovClintonTyree said:
I think your '17 number is optimistic. 32-35k is possible.

Braves fans have historically packed the stadium on weekends and gotten about 17,000 weeknights. Now, a goodly portion of that poor in-week attendance was having a no-fun park area and dangerous neighborhood of Summerhill, and I've seen the maps showing where Braves season ticket holders live, but the new location will still be a huge challenge. The city emanates 40 miles from the center in virtually every direction. They're still going to struggle weeknights. From my former hood up in Gwinnett, and even from North Fulton and Forsyth, a Cobb stadium - especially one with difficult entrance and egress - does almost no good.
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We averaged over 40K each of the first three years of Turner Field.
 
Horsehide Harry said:
April:

3@Mets: 0-3

3@Pirates: 1-2

2@Marlins: 1-1

4 Padres: 3-1

3 Gnats: 1-2

3@ Phillies: 1-2

3@Mets: 1-2

3@Brewers: 2-1

Record after April: 10-14

May

4 Mets: 2-2

3 Cards: 1-2

2@Stros: 0-2

3@Marlins: 1-2

2@BlueJays: 1-1

2 BlueJays: 1-1

3 Gnats: 1-2

4 Pirates: 2-2

3@ Giants: 0-3

3@ Angels: 2-1

May Record: 11-18

YTD Record: 21-32

June

3@Reds: 3-0

4 Phillies: 2-2

3 Mets: 2-1

3@Gnats: 1-2

3 Marlins: 2-1

4 Giants: 2-2

3 Brewers: 3-0

3@ Padres: 2-1

1@ A's: 0-1

June Record: 17-10

YTD Record: 38-42

July

1@A's: 1-0

2 Astros: 0-2

4@Gnats: 1-3

All Star

3 D'Backs: 1-2

3 Cubs: 0-3

4@Dodgers:1-3

3@D'Backs:1-2

4@Phillies:1-3

July Record: 6-18

Record at All Star Break: 40-47

YTD Record: 44-60 (Horrible July)

Coaching Staff Fired

Attendance drops to ~15,000 per game

August

3 Dodgers: 2-1

3 Marlins: 2-1

2 Phillies: 2-0

3@Cards: 1-2

4@Rockies:1-3

3 Reds: 3-0

3 Mariners: 1-2

3 Rockies: 2-1

3@Phillies: 1-2

1@Cubs: 0-1

August Record: 15-13

YTD Record: 55-73

September

3@Cubs: 1-2

3 Rangers: 1-2

4 Marlins: 3-1

3@Gnats: 1-2

3 Mets: 2-1

3 Gnats: 2-1

3 Phillies: 2-1

3@Mets: 1-2

3@Marlins: 2-1

September Record: 15-13

YTD Record: 70-86

October

1@Marlins: 1-0

Working off MLB Schedule, something obviously wrong since doesn't add up to 162. I'll give the Braves the benefit of the doubt on the missing 5 games and go with a final record of:

76-86

Attendance starts strong, then settles in at about 15-20,000 per night as the front office finds out that the illusion of a competitive team only brings in the illusion of fans in seats.

Colon and Dickey both crash and burn as age catches up.

Garcia pitches well but is hurt a good bit and traded at the deadline.

Folty works his way into the 3.5 era range.

So does Teheran.

Johnson regresses and loses the closer role.

Kemp shows up in shape, and pulls a muscle (an under-rated fact is that you can't pull fat)

3B is a black hole, as is catcher.

Albies is brought up in August after the Braves are out and have traded SRod and Peterson.

Inciarte, Freeman and Swanson are pretty much the only offense.
Click to expand...

Thanks Horsehide, this will help me with the YNOT part of the schedule. Can you confirm this is our total schedule by date for the whole season and if so I can data dump it into my program?

AA
 
I took it from MLB website. BUT, the numbers don't add up to 162. They've got something wrong or I do and can't figure out what I am missing.

I came up 5 games short and gave all those as wins to the Braves for my projection.
 
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