Olivera traded for Kemp

gilesfan said:
Im not sure why you think that. Teams don't simply distribute excess funds equally between shareholders. The Nationals, for example, are putting away money to offer Bryce in a few years.
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Or may be they simply plan on using the 40-50 million in payroll space they have getting freed up from expiring contracts like Werth, Paps, Gio, etc...
 
Chico said:
You do realize that you're analyzing this move without any context of future moves for 2017 right?
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No I'm not. "Good players" means they have to acquire good players at ALL 4 positions of need: LF, 3B, C and MOR starter. They already failed in adding good players to all 4 positions by sticking Kemp in LF.

I contend there is no series of realistic moves the team could make this offseason that allows them to compete for a WC spot with Kemp occupying LF.
 
gilesfan said:
Then Sheffield was a -3 in 05 playing next to a terrible defender in Bernie. The analysis is way more complex than "hey a defender had a good year defensively (small sample) next to 1 guy (possibly the greatest defensive CF of all time).
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Dude, it's impossible to explain away preconceived notions, no matter how much data backs you up. All you're doing is wearing out your keyboard.
 
thewupk said:
The only caveat I will say abut this is if he keeps his results up right now going forward his value would be higher to higher payroll teams. To the smaller and mid market teams his value is likely at it's peak. But a trade with those teams is likely an offseason move. If the narrative of JT goes from MOR to upper end then his value will rise as well. Last year (especially the first half) did happen and it brought his stock down. Continue good results will show that as a blip on the radar and nothing to be concerned about.
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Bet you $1 they do not trade Teheran this offseason. I bet they think Kemp is part of the answer and they think they are going to compete next year with him in LF. And I bet they will be wrong. They will be a 70 win team or worse, waste another year of Teheran's value, and still have Kemp for 3 years.
 
Enscheff said:
Dude, it's impossible to explain away preconceived notions, no matter how much data backs you up. All you're doing is wearing out your keyboard.
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Yep, its similar to 2003 and arguing with people that on base percentage was important.
 
Carp said:
You realize he was wrong don't you?
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About what? There have been studies done on this very issue, and the data says OFers don't cover up for each other. Even if they did, does that make the bad OFer better? If Inciarte has to shade to LF to cover for Kemp, who is catching all the balls Inciarte doesn't get to in RC? And you think putting another bad bat in RF to cover for Inciarte moving over towards LF is better?

Like I said, it is impossible to explain away preconceived notions, no matter what facts are presented.
 
gilesfan said:
Yep, its similar to 2003 and arguing with people that on base percentage was important.
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Yeah. The idea of getting on base being important to offense is equal to not believing guys that cover more ground don't help out defenders next to them.
 
Enscheff said:
About what? There have been studies done on this very issue, and the data says OFers don't cover up for each other. Even if they did, does that make the bad OFer better? If Inciarte has to shade to LF to cover for Kemp, who is catching all the balls Inciarte doesn't get to in RC? And you think putting another bad bat in RF to cover for Inciarte moving over towards LF is better?

Like I said, it is impossible to explain away preconceived notions, no matter what facts are presented.
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He quoted Sheffield as being -3 in 2005. That is wrong. Did you just reply to something without even reading it?

And it's not necessarily about shading to LF. It's about having the range to cover that ground regardless.
 
thewupk said:
Yeah. The idea of getting on base being important to offense is equal to not believing guys that cover more ground don't help out defenders next to them.
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You are talking about huge gaps in the OF. How many balls with Inciarte get to in left center field to "cover for Matt Kemp?"
 
Enscheff said:
About what? There have been studies done on this very issue, and the data says OFers don't cover up for each other. Even if they did, does that make the bad OFer better? If Inciarte has to shade to LF to cover for Kemp, who is catching all the balls Inciarte doesn't get to in RC? And you think putting another bad bat in RF to cover for Inciarte moving over towards LF is better?

Like I said, it is impossible to explain away preconceived notions, no matter what facts are presented.
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About Sheffield.

And please, link to these "studies."
 
gilesfan said:
You are talking about huge gaps in the OF. How many balls with Inciarte get to in left center field to "cover for Matt Kemp?"
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You tell me why some outfielders have dramatically improved defensive numbers when playing next to elite defenders and I'll answer that question for you. Do you really think Gary Sheffield magically improved by 15-20 runs on defense in a span of two years just to going back to being awful?
 
Enscheff said:
Um, I can go out there and catch routine fly balls. So can every single professional baseball player. If you think that's all it takes to be a good OFer I'm not sure what to say. So I won't.
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I could have gone into how he's caught 75% of likely chances and 36.4% of even chances in addition to the 144 chances he's handled flawlessly , but I didn't think it was necessary. Silly me.

There isn't a front office in baseball who uses defensive WAR to value players the way it is casually and unquestionably done here on this board, and that is a fact. You don't have enough chances to impact a game from a corner OF spot in much of a meaningful way. The difference in value between the best and worst is relatively insignificant.

Kemp doesn't get to TWO balls an average LF gets to this year. In four months! IT BARELY MATTERS.

Far more troubling in his OBP, but a return to close to his career walk and BABIP levels would clean that up.

We were able to take on an $18m player (probably overpaid, but so what) and deep six an $8m salary in the same stroke. Not only is it an okay deal, it's a good deal.

If you don't agree, fine. Allow for some dissent once in a while. Groupthink bad.
 
GovClintonTyree said:
I could have gone into how he's caught 75% of likely chances and 36.4% of even chances in addition to the 144 chances he's handled flawlessly , but I didn't think it was necessary. Silly me.

There isn't a front office in baseball who uses defensive WAR to value players the way it is casually and unquestionably done here on this board, and that is a fact. You don't have enough chances to impact a game from a corner OF spot in much of a meaningful way. The difference in value between the best and worst is relatively insignificant.

Kemp doesn't get to TWO balls an average LF gets to this year. In four months! IT BARELY MATTERS.

Far more troubling in his OBP, but a return to close to his career walk and BABIP levels would clean that up.

We were able to take on an $18m player (probably overpaid, but so what) and deep six an $8m salary in the same stroke. Not only is it an okay deal, it's a good deal.

If you don't agree, fine. Allow for some dissent once in a while. Groupthink bad.
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Groupthink? Apparently I'm the only one here concerned with the direction the FO has taken. Seems like the exact opposite of groupthink.

You all think Kemp is going to be just fine and the FO was right to acquire a 1 WAR player and forego improving LF with an actual good player. All the while wasting another year of Julio's value. I suppose we will have to agree to disagree, but you won't find a single unbiased source who thinks the Kemp trade was good for Atlanta.

PS- missing 2 balls in the OF leads to a larger number of runs than missing 2 balls on the infield. He also gets to several fewer "hard" chance in the OF, which lead to even more runs. I think you're underrating how bad it is to let flyballs drop since they usually go for extra bases.
 
GovClintonTyree said:
I could have gone into how he's caught 75% of likely chances and 36.4% of even chances in addition to the 144 chances he's handled flawlessly , but I didn't think it was necessary. Silly me.

There isn't a front office in baseball who uses defensive WAR to value players the way it is casually and unquestionably done here on this board, and that is a fact. You don't have enough chances to impact a game from a corner OF spot in much of a meaningful way. The difference in value between the best and worst is relatively insignificant.

Kemp doesn't get to TWO balls an average LF gets to this year. In four months! IT BARELY MATTERS.

Far more troubling in his OBP, but a return to close to his career walk and BABIP levels would clean that up.

We were able to take on an $18m player (probably overpaid, but so what) and deep six an $8m salary in the same stroke. Not only is it an okay deal, it's a good deal.

If you don't agree, fine. Allow for some dissent once in a while. Groupthink bad.
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Holy crap, no matter how many times people explain to you, YOU WONT LISTEN! It is not 2 balls over of 4 months, it is more than that. You are miss applying reasoning.
 
Carp said:
About Sheffield.

And please, link to these "studies."
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Sure thing, here's the first one I could find from BP:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=21215

It's a pay site, and I'm sure you don't have a subscription to read about the analytics of baseball (if you did we wouldn't having this discussion), so here's the money quote:

"Surely enough, there was a significant effect of having a defensive whiz for a teammate. A negative one."

Now I'm quite positive this won't sway you in any way, but there it is.

Time for you to get defensive and call me a jerk or say you have too much a life to read stuff like this?
 
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