Olivera traded for Kemp

Enscheff said:
Sure thing, here's the first one I could find from BP:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=21215

It's a pay site, and I'm sure you don't have a subscription to read about the analytics of baseball (if you did we wouldn't having this discussion), so here's the money quote:

"Surely enough, there was a significant effect of having a defensive whiz for a teammate. A negative one."

Now I'm quite positive this won't sway you in any way, but there it is.

Time for you to get defensive and call me a jerk or say you have too much a life to read stuff like this?
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Entirely about the infield btw and based on data from the 90's.
 
Enscheff said:
Groupthink? Apparently I'm the only one here concerned with the direction the FO has taken. Seems like the exact opposite of groupthink.

You all think Kemp is going to be just fine and the FO was right to acquire a 1 WAR player and forego improving LF with an actual good player. All the while wasting another year of Julio's value. I suppose we will have to agree to disagree, but you won't find a single unbiased source who thinks the Kemp trade was good for Atlanta.

PS- missing 2 balls in the OF leads to a larger number of runs than missing 2 balls on the infield. He also gets to several fewer "hard" chance in the OF, which lead to even more runs. I think you're underrating how bad it is to let flyballs drop since they usually go for extra bases.
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Agree that two balls could have a mushroom effect as impact. Could also result in a single falling 200' from home plate with two outs followed by a first pitch pop out for out #3.
 
Enscheff said:
No I'm not. "Good players" means they have to acquire good players at ALL 4 positions of need: LF, 3B, C and MOR starter. They already failed in adding good players to all 4 positions by sticking Kemp in LF.

I contend there is no series of realistic moves the team could make this offseason that allows them to compete for a WC spot with Kemp occupying LF.
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If Kemp were to average 2WAR a season for the additional $10m/yr we've absorbed, leaving aside my argument that we can't possibly spend the money we'll have budgeted for players, would that be a tolerable result?
 
Enscheff said:
No you won't. If you truly cared about informing yourself you would do your own research.

You care about disagreeing with me.
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Do I? I did my research on how Andruw effected the defensive ratings of others over the years. It's something I've stated many times. What have you done? If these studies about OF defense exist you should easily be able to find them for me.
 
GovClintonTyree said:
If Kemp were to average 2WAR a season for the additional $10m/yr we've absorbed, leaving aside my argument that we can't possibly spend the money we'll have budgeted for players, would that be a tolerable result?
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If he can be a 2-3 WAR player over those 3 years, yes, absolutely. If the Braves acquire 2-3 WAR players for LF, 3B, C, and MOR starter, and they perform as such, the Braves can contend for a WC slot if they have decent sequencing luck. If kemp ends up being one of those 2-3 WAR players the Braves will be in good shape.

However, Kemp's most likely outcome is an injury marred 0-1 WAR per season, and that's how he should have been valued. Banking on him being a 2-3 WAR per season player over the next 3 years is foolish and shows a complete lack of analysis acumen on the part of the FO. No amount of being happy to be in Atlanta is going to make him healthier or a better defender, though I would expect his OBP to increase above .300.
 
Enscheff said:
If he can be a 2-3 WAR player over those 3 years, yes, absolutely. If the Braves acquire 2-3 WAR players for LF, 3B, C, and MOR starter, and they perform as such, the Braves can contend for a WC slot if they have decent sequencing luck. If kemp ends up being one of those 2-3 WAR players the Braves will be in good shape.

However, Kemp's most likely outcome is an injury marred 0-1 WAR per season, and that's how he should have been valued. Banking on him being a 2-3 WAR per season player over the next 3 years is foolish and shows a complete lack of analysis acumen on the part of the FO. No amount of being happy to be in Atlanta is going to make him healthier or a better defender, though I would expect his OBP to increase above .300.
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Agree. Which is why I think you have to platoon him. Keep the miles down. Protect him vs some RH. Think about not using him in day after night game, etc.

I think he could give more value in less time if we platoon him some with Markakis or Jace.

I'd sit him late for a defensive sub if we have Mallex and Inciarte on the team.

If we had a 1 and 2 hitter worth much (Albies and Swanson? Desmond?) then maybe we get some more bang for our buck and Kemp can get some multi run HRs.
 
Enscheff said:
If he can be a 2-3 WAR player over those 3 years, yes, absolutely. If the Braves acquire 2-3 WAR players for LF, 3B, C, and MOR starter, and they perform as such, the Braves can contend for a WC slot if they have decent sequencing luck. If kemp ends up being one of those 2-3 WAR players the Braves will be in good shape.

However, Kemp's most likely outcome is an injury marred 0-1 WAR per season, and that's how he should have been valued. Banking on him being a 2-3 WAR per season player over the next 3 years is foolish and shows a complete lack of analysis acumen on the part of the FO. No amount of being happy to be in Atlanta is going to make him healthier or a better defender, though I would expect his OBP to increase above .300.
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I'm thinking it's likely that his power isn't going anywhere, his OBP will recover significantly between babip and BB return, everything will improve outside SD, and that his glove is a slight negative (because I don't trust defensive metrics). Health is always a gamble, moreso for Kemp. But I don't think it beggars belief that he could produce 2-2.5 oWAR/yr for the next three.

And we don't have another player like him. Can't have a lineup full, but it's good to have a guy or two to clear the bags, even if they swing and miss.
 
Enscheff said:
If he can be a 2-3 WAR player over those 3 years, yes, absolutely. If the Braves acquire 2-3 WAR players for LF, 3B, C, and MOR starter, and they perform as such, the Braves can contend for a WC slot if they have decent sequencing luck. If kemp ends up being one of those 2-3 WAR players the Braves will be in good shape.

However, Kemp's most likely outcome is an injury marred 0-1 WAR per season, and that's how he should have been valued. Banking on him being a 2-3 WAR per season player over the next 3 years is foolish and shows a complete lack of analysis acumen on the part of the FO. No amount of being happy to be in Atlanta is going to make him healthier or a better defender, though I would expect his OBP to increase above .300.
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I doubt they think this because they certainly aren't paying him to be a 2-3 WAR player. Again it's 26 million added payroll over 3 years. I'll let you figure out the rest.
 
Russ2dollas said:
Agree. Which is why I think you have to platoon him. Keep the miles down. Protect him vs some RH. Think about not using him in day after night game, etc.

I think he could give more value in less time if we platoon him some with Markakis or Jace.

I'd sit him late for a defensive sub if we have Mallex and Inciarte on the team.

If we had a 1 and 2 hitter worth much (Albies and Swanson? Desmond?) then maybe we get some more bang for our buck and Kemp can get some multi run HRs.
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Yeah. Good thoughts.
 
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