Olivera traded for Kemp

Southcack77 said:
Yes, in real life teams place weak defenders in left field quite a bit and use positioning and superior defenders to try and cover for them.

My sense is that the advanced defensive stats overstate the comparative importance of defense. I'm also not so sure those metrics do a particularly good job, though its better than it used to be.

I think Kemp's ability to play LF is the least of the Braves worries about his contract. Since the Braves aren't going to be contending for championships, what balls he doesn't get to are not going to be high profile misses that anyone is going to remember.

Where Atlanta might be screwed is if he continues to struggle making contact at the plate, or if his injury situation makes him someone that they can't really play anymore.

But given I think its unlikely the Braves are in a position to sign a great free agent or contend prior to 2018 or 2019, it may well be that it doesn't end up mattering. And if he hits .290, .340 with power like he's been doing lately, he will be just fine as an acquisition and the Braves may well be able to flip him for an asset.
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He's actually not struggling to make contact. Very low BABIP. Lots of contact outside the strike zone. Impatience?
 
Southcack77 said:
But given I think its unlikely the Braves are in a position to sign a great free agent or contend prior to 2018 or 2019, it may well be that it doesn't end up mattering. And if he hits .290, .340 with power like he's been doing lately, he will be just fine as an acquisition and the Braves may well be able to flip him for an asset.
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If Kemp goes .265/.320/.480 and plays in 150+ games in 2017 I will have no complaints, even with his poor defense.

I think it is possible for him to hit those numbers, but it is also possible he slashes .260/.300/.400 in less than 100 game...with poor defense.

And then he is just going to get older and worse.
 
chop2chip said:
So you acknowledge that Inciarte has greater range, yes?

Kemp has less to cover, so he shifts to the line and the RF can cover the same ground. I don't get why that concept is so difficult to understand.

It's not supposed to be drastic. It's about marginal improvements, but over 1,500 innings in a season marginal improvements can be substantial.
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It depends. How wide is Kemps "circle of range? Can Inciarte make up the extra distance that Kemp lacks or does Inciarte have to shade further left if Kemp moves toward the line?
 
GovClintonTyree said:
That seems like a pretty good analysis. Although I did note that his Z-swing% has actually increased, which leads me to believe it's more impatience and over aggressiveness than it is bat speed. He's still pretty young to lose that much bat speed.
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He actually not. Hes at an age where players drastically decline (especially post roids). And you increase your strike zone when your bat slows down.
 
GovClintonTyree said:
He's actually not struggling to make contact. Very low BABIP. Lots of contact outside the strike zone. Impatience?
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K rate of 23%. Not tremendous but does k

And Kemp profile is more flyballs and soft contact, is .288 really a low BABiP based on that? .288 is certainly not veryl low.
 
GovClintonTyree said:
He's actually not struggling to make contact. Very low BABIP. Lots of contact outside the strike zone. Impatience?
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that's a fair point. His K percentage is 23, which isn't terrible. The truly terrible BB% is actually the biggest component of the OBP problem. Not sure his BABIP is tremendously low.
 
gilesfan said:
K rate of 23%. Not tremendous but does k
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His K rate has been pretty stable over the years: 21, 23, 21, 25, 23, 23, 26, 24, 23, 23.

Not the pattern you would expect from a guy who is expanding his strike zone due to a slower bat.
 
nsacpi said:
His K rate has been pretty stable over the years: 21, 23, 21, 25, 23, 23, 26, 24, 23, 23.

Not the pattern you would expect from a guy who is expanding his strike zone due to a slower bat.
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The expanded zone could be an interesting indicator. He hasnt struck out a ton it seems bc of the number of strikes pitchers have thrown, which has increased his contact rate (bc pitches in the zone)

So he missing more wnd swingjng at pitches out of zone so hes not walking, but k rate hasnt skyrocketed.
 
gilesfan said:
The expanded zone could be an interesting indicator. He hasnt struck out a ton it seems bc of the number of strikes pitchers have thrown, which has increased his contact rate (bc pitches in the zone)

So he missing more wnd swingjng at pitches out of zone so hes not walking, but k rate hasnt skyrocketed.
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But he isn't really swinging and missing more since his SwStrike % is pretty much in line with the rest of his career norms. Really it just seems like he's lost plate discipline. That could mean his bat is slower (which is probably true since he's older), but nothing seems to spell impending doom. Hopefully, he can be less aggressive and increase his BB rate.
 
Who knows, it could also be part of the Pads hitting instruction that they wanted to see him be more aggressive at the plate. The power he's still showing at this stage of his career is actually more encouraging to me. His average will likely fluctuate around career norms. The main concern is the declining BB rate.
 
Carp said:
Who knows, it could also be part of the Pads hitting instruction that they wanted to see him be more aggressive at the plate. The power he's still showing at this stage of his career is actually more encouraging to me. His average will likely fluctuate around career norms. The main concern is the declining BB rate.
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The other possibility is he felt he had to carry more of the offensive load with the Padres. When you are with a better team, taking a walk seems like a decent option. Less so with a bad team. Btw Freeman is swinging more this year. Wonder if the same psychological factor is in play.
 
nsacpi said:
The other possibility is he felt he had to carry more of the offensive load with the Padres. When you are with a better team, taking a walk seems like a decent option. Less so with a bad team. Btw Freeman is swinging more this year. Wonder if the same psychological factor is in play.
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The Pads have some decent bats. Better than ours.
 
Joey Votto Fanclub
12:26 Can CF defense help the corners; ie Matt Kemp

Dave Cameron
12:26 Not much. The number of plays that can be made by two different fielders is much lower than people think.
 
gilesfan said:
Joey Votto Fanclub
12:26 Can CF defense help the corners; ie Matt Kemp

Dave Cameron
12:26 Not much. The number of plays that can be made by two different fielders is much lower than people think.
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Shh, don't get them all riled up again. We just got them settled down and the foam wiped from their mouths.

Ignorance is bliss, and right now they are all blissful and quiet.
 
Enscheff said:
Shh, don't get them all riled up again. We just got them settled down and the foam wiped from their mouths.

Ignorance is bliss, and right now they are all blissful and quiet.
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and you are the most enlightened internet message board poster i've seen yet.
 
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