Olivera traded for Kemp

[chop2chip]

LOL, this is comical. Has Kemps defense been better here?

Of course not. See ya.

Kemp's defense overall has been worse, but this discussion isn't about Kemp. It's about the value of Ender. If you isolate the areas of Kemp's defense that Inciarte can impact, then you can see the positive effect he's had. It's beside the point that Kemp has struggled in those other areas.

 

[Enscheff]

I guess I don't understand the argument. The origins of this debate were that Ender would make Kemp a better defender. Now the argument is that Ender can only only improve Kemp's range (also not sure how that makes sense). But if that improvement in Kemp's "range" doesn't translate into making him a better defender, what's the point?

I think it's more likely that whatever "range" value you all are referencing is showing that it is bogus and possibly being manipulated by having Ender playing next to Kemp. No player is going to make another player's actual "range" (his ability to chase down a fly ball) any better. That should be obvious without looking at any stats. Ender is not going to make Kemp faster or get better reads on balls.

You guys can pick and choose whatever parts of stats you want to emphasize, but the facts remain: Kemp is terrible, and playing next to Ender isn't going to change that.

 

[thewupk]

I guess I don't understand the argument. The origins of this debate were that Ender would make Kemp a better defender. Now the argument is that Ender can only only improve Kemp's range (also not sure how that makes sense). But if that improvement in Kemp's "range" doesn't translate into making him a better defender, what's the point?

I think it's more likely that whatever "range" value you all are referencing is showing that it is bogus and possibly being manipulated by having Ender playing next to Kemp. No player is going to make another player's actual "range" (his ability to chase down a fly ball) any better. That should be obvious without looking at any stats. Ender is not going to make Kemp faster or get better reads on balls.

You guys can pick and choose whatever parts of stats you want to emphasize, but the facts remain: Kemp is terrible, and playing next to Ender isn't going to change that.

Without Ender if Kemp is -10 runs in range and is only -5 with Ender then that is an improvement. Regardless of what else Kemp does while trying to catch the ball or throwing it. I think that is the point. An improvement in range improves his defense regardless of where the final numbers are. And thanks for stating the obvious about the stats only being manipulated. But again in the end those numbers are what people base their opinions on a value of a player. So if they are easily manipulated enough by outside forces that aren't important then that may call into the validity of those stats to begin with. I'm more of a believer in team dWar. So while Kemp is a bad defender with bad range regardless of who plays next to him. The impact of that negative range is lessened when a really good CF is there to cover up some of the mess. That's been the point the entire time.

 

[Enscheff]

Without Ender if Kemp is -10 runs in range and is only -5 with Ender then that is an improvement. Regardless of what else Kemp does while trying to catch the ball or throwing it. I think that is the point. An improvement in range improves his defense regardless of where the final numbers are. And thanks for stating the obvious about the stats only being manipulated. But again in the end those numbers are what people base their opinions on a value of a player. So if they are easily manipulated enough by outside forces that aren't important then that may call into the validity of those stats to begin with. I'm more of a believer in team dWar. So while Kemp is a bad defender with bad range regardless of who plays next to him. The impact of that negative range is lessened when a really good CF is there to cover up some of the mess. That's been the point the entire time.

So you still contend that Inciarte is catching enough balls in Kemp's zone to make Kemp go from a poor defender to an equally poor (or worse) defender? And your proof is based on ~200 innings of them playing together?

If so, I guess you won the argument!

 

[thewupk]

So you still contend that Inciarte is catching enough balls in Kemp's zone to make Kemp go from a poor defender to an equally poor (or worse) defender? And your proof is based on ~200 innings of them playing together?

If so, I guess you won the argument!

It's continued proof. Unless you think Markakis suddenly found a new set of legs to improve his range rating as well. Give me a logical reason to account for that and I may consider your point. I was told there way no way a CF can improve a corner outfielders defense. I guess Nick being better and Kemp having better range since coming to Atlanta is just a fluke. We'll see how next year plays out.

 

[Enscheff]

It's continued proof. Unless you think Markakis suddenly found a new set of legs to improve his range rating as well. Give me a logical reason to account for that and I may consider your point. I was told there way no way a CF can improve a corner outfielders defense. I guess Nick being better and Kemp having better range since coming to Atlanta is just a fluke. We'll see how next year plays out.

OK, if you are saying Inciarte will catch a few balls in Kemp's zone, thus lowering the chances in the denominator for Kemp, which will increase his calculated range, then yes, you are correct. However, that still doesn't make Kemp a better defender, or increase his range in any way. It still doesn't make Kemp a net positive for this team, not even close.

The amount of balls that Inciarte gets to that Kemp should have gotten to is such a small number it won't matter, as evidenced by Kemp being worse overall defensively in Atlanta than he was in SD even with Ender next to him.

Kemp is probably going to be an unmitigated disaster next season. He will be lucky to post +1 WAR. Ender isn't going to change any of that.

 

[thewupk]

OK, if you are saying Inciarte will catch a few balls in Kemp's zone, thus lowering the chances in the denominator for Kemp, which will increase his calculated range, then yes, you are correct. However, that still doesn't make Kemp a better defender, or increase his range in any way. It still doesn't make Kemp a net positive for this team, not even close.

The amount of balls that Inciarte gets to that Kemp should have gotten to is such a small number it won't matter, as evidenced by Kemp being worse overall defensively in Atlanta than he was in SD even with Ender next to him.

Kemp is probably going to be an unmitigated disaster next season. He will be lucky to post +1 WAR. Ender isn't going to change any of that.

It's a SSS but it is what we have to work with. For example with the Padres Kemp was on pace for -11.3 runs in UZR range over the course of 1250 innings (rough estimate of what he will end up with this year). With the Braves he's on pace for -4.3 runs in UZR range over 1250 innings. Not a huge improvement but that does account for about a .7 WAR improvement. Again we are dealing with SSS but if Enders presence accounts for a half WAR improvement on defense I would consider that impactful. How Kemp handles himself with actually fielding and throwing the ball is independent on Enders effect on range. Kemp could suddenly have the worst arm in the history of baseball and he would overall be a worse defender in Atlanta even with Ender helping. He would just be that much worse without a plus defender to his left.

 

[Carp]

OK, if you are saying Inciarte will catch a few balls in Kemp's zone, thus lowering the chances in the denominator for Kemp, which will increase his calculated range, then yes, you are correct.

Well that was the crux of the argument. It was argued that Kemp's defensive issues could be mitigated with a great defender in CF (along with Kemp moving to LF).

 

[Enscheff]

Then my position is the Braves need to find an OFer whose defense does not need to be mitigated if they plan on contending. So far they have not succeeded in mitigating his poor defense. It is just as bad as it's always been.

 

[thewupk]

Then my position is the Braves need to find an OFer whose defense does not need to be mitigated if they plan on contending. So far they have not succeeded in mitigating his poor defense. It is just as bad as it's always been.

Not correct. If Kemp's range rating was at Padre levels his defensive value would be worse than it currently is right now. Something you either can't grasp or don't want to admit.

 

[zitothebrave]

Due to his poor arm so far. He's been worth -2.2 runs in 200 innings with his arm according to UZR. That's not likely to continue at that pace. That's an area where one or two plays early can really help or really hurt your defensive numbers. Range is more consistent and ultimately what really drives defensive numbers. It's what you can count on going forward. And that has improved since coming to Atlanta albeit in a small amount of time.

The question being is he making more plays because of positioning and doing worse because of arm? Pick on Nick really quick. In Baltimore he was a positive arm almost every year. he was -5.8 last year and -3.7 this year.

Also can't deny the impact of moving from RF where you compete with players like Heyward, Eaton, and Betts vs. LF where you're looking at guys like Pagan, Gordon and Marte as your typical leaders.

So maybe the issues are with our positioning.Maybe we set guys too far forward or back or to the pull/push.

 

[thewupk]

The question being is he making more plays because of positioning and doing worse because of arm? Pick on Nick really quick. In Baltimore he was a positive arm almost every year. he was -5.8 last year and -3.7 this year.

Also can't deny the impact of moving from RF where you compete with players like Heyward, Eaton, and Betts vs. LF where you're looking at guys like Pagan, Gordon and Marte as your typical leaders.

So maybe the issues are with our positioning.Maybe we set guys too far forward or back or to the pull/push.

That's possible. With Nick though I think it's just a decline in throwing ability. He just can't put much on his throws anymore. Also it's something that can show up quickly as well. If you have a couple of horrible throws in a short time span it's going to kill your overall defensive rating even though you don't necessarily expect that level of performance to continue. The opposite is true as well if you nail a few guys on the based in a few games it's going to boost your stats beyond what you normally would expect. Range though has a pretty constant baseline in the current environment in which you play.

 

[Carp]

Would not be surprising to see that Nick has lost some strength with the neck surgery an year ago and combined with the typical skills decline into your 30's.

 

[thewupk]

Another UZR update and Kemp is still on the same curve for around -4.5 UZR range runs over the course of a full season. As stated this is the number that matters as it's what really dictates overall defense going forward as it's a constant where throwing and fielding are generally one off's that can negatively or positively influence numbers in a small sample. Kemp's UZR/150 has dropped from in the -20's to -17 now. That number is likely to continue to drop as the season progresses on. The improved range number is a positive outlook going into 2017 assuming Ender is still on the team and can improve Kemp's value by .5 WAR on the defensive side alone.

 

[Horsehide Harry]

Not to crash your Black Panther Party, but I still think that individual valuation stats neglect a players value to a whole (or team value). A player may be total garbage defensively and still be just what was needed for a team. Fred McGriff would be a good example of that. He essentially was a statue at 1B but his bat completely ignited the team when he was brought in from San Diego. The Braves needed a clean up hitter and got him in McGriff which changed everything offensively. His defense, or lack of defense, was really only a side bar to the team.

Kemp may be a similar acquisition with the exception being that the team as constructed is nowhere near as talented as the team McGriff was brought into. The team isn't ready to compete (yet) therefore carrying Kemp's weakness may not justify the need for his strengths. All in all, I think Coppy saw a way to right a wrong in getting rid of Olivera and address a glaring need in the anemic lack of team power by bringing in Kemp. I don't think there would have been any way that they would have traded for Kemp just for his services, without the advantage of shedding Olivera.

Having said that, the best option IMO for the Braves is to move Kemp to an AL team to DH in the offseason, paying a good chunk of his salary dependent on the return.

 

[Enscheff]

Another UZR update and Kemp is still on the same curve for around -4.5 UZR range runs over the course of a full season. As stated this is the number that matters as it's what really dictates overall defense going forward as it's a constant where throwing and fielding are generally one off's that can negatively or positively influence numbers in a small sample. Kemp's UZR/150 has dropped from in the -20's to -17 now. That number is likely to continue to drop as the season progresses on. The improved range number is a positive outlook going into 2017 assuming Ender is still on the team and can improve Kemp's value by .5 WAR on the defensive side alone.

My god, what point are you even trying to make? That Inciarte makes Kemp go from the worst defender to the 5th worst defender in the game?

Defensive stats don't stabilize until there is 2-3 years worth of data, and you are updating every dozen games. Do you have any idea how pointless these little updates from you are? Can you even comprehend how meaningless these tiny sample sizes you are referencing are?

Kemp has been a negative defender every single year he has been at the MLB level besides his age 23 season. He has been worth a total of -13 (yes, negative) wins based on his poor defense alone. In a single season he has wavered from slightly negative (-6) to hugely negative (-37).

Are the seasons he was only slightly crappy due to having a good OFer next to him, or do you think maybe, just maybe, the variations are due to the small sample sizes inherent in defensive metrics? Don't you think that maybe, just maybe, his "better but still insanely crappy" defense with the Braves is most likely due to even smaller sample size variations?

Seriously, do you comprehend how small these sample sizes are and how meaningless it is to draw results from them other than "Kemp is bad"?

 

[thewupk]

My god, what point are you even trying to make? That Inciarte makes Kemp go from the worst defender to the 5th worst defender in the game?

Defensive stats don't stabilize until there is 2-3 years worth of data, and you are updating every dozen games. Do you have any idea how pointless these little updates from you are? Can you even comprehend how meaningless these tiny sample sizes you are referencing are?

Kemp has been a negative defender every single year he has been at the MLB level besides his age 23 season. He has been worth a total of -13 (yes, negative) wins based on his poor defense alone. In a single season he has wavered from slightly negative (-6) to hugely negative (-37).

Are the seasons he was only slightly crappy due to having a good OFer next to him, or do you think maybe, just maybe, the variations are due to the small sample sizes inherent in defensive metrics? Don't you think that maybe, just maybe, his "better but still insanely crappy" defense with the Braves is most likely due to even smaller sample size variations?

Seriously, do you comprehend how small these sample sizes are and how meaningless it is to draw results from them other than "Kemp is bad"?

The point is simple. Kemp's 'range' value has improved since having Ender next to him. Is that a SSS? Will it last? We will see. But it's been consistent from day 1 since coming to Atlanta. Just as Markakis's range has improved this year compared to last while having Ender in center. To me that's real value. Whether you want to admit that or not I don't care. But I will keep providing updates as they come until the SSS is no longer small.

 

[smootness]

My god, what point are you even trying to make? That Inciarte makes Kemp go from the worst defender to the 5th worst defender in the game?

Defensive stats don't stabilize until there is 2-3 years worth of data, and you are updating every dozen games. Do you have any idea how pointless these little updates from you are? Can you even comprehend how meaningless these tiny sample sizes you are referencing are?

Kemp has been a negative defender every single year he has been at the MLB level besides his age 23 season. He has been worth a total of -13 (yes, negative) wins based on his poor defense alone. In a single season he has wavered from slightly negative (-6) to hugely negative (-37).

Are the seasons he was only slightly crappy due to having a good OFer next to him, or do you think maybe, just maybe, the variations are due to the small sample sizes inherent in defensive metrics? Don't you think that maybe, just maybe, his "better but still insanely crappy" defense with the Braves is most likely due to even smaller sample size variations?

Seriously, do you comprehend how small these sample sizes are and how meaningless it is to draw results from them other than "Kemp is bad"?

Every time I see a post with this kind of condescending and arrogant tone, I don't even need to scroll up to see who wrote it.

 

[50PoundHead]

The point is simple. Kemp's 'range' value has improved since having Ender next to him. Is that a SSS? Will it last? We will see. But it's been consistent from day 1 since coming to Atlanta. Just as Markakis's range has improved this year compared to last while having Ender in center. To me that's real value. Whether you want to admit that or not I don't care. But I will keep providing updates as they come until the SSS is no longer small.

I've always looked at team defense as much as individual defense. There's no hiding a bad defender, but having a plus defender next to them can mitigate the problem somewhat. Having Inciarte in CF allows the team to position Markakis and Kemp differently, which strengthens the team defense. Does that make Kemp and Markakis good defenders? No. But they are covered somewhat by having Inciarte between them.

 

[thewupk]

I've always looked at team defense as much as individual defense. There's no hiding a bad defender, but having a plus defender next to them can mitigate the problem somewhat. Having Inciarte in CF allows the team to position Markakis and Kemp differently, which strengthens the team defense. Does that make Kemp and Markakis good defenders? No. But they are covered somewhat by having Inciarte between them.

Right. For example I do prefer team UZR defensive numbers more so than the individual ones. To me this is a clear example of Ender being a really good outfielder with some of his 'value' being attributed to Nick and Matt. Is that fair? Is that right? Who knows but that's how UZR handles it whereas I would personally rather attribute that to Ender himself on an individual basis which is why looking at the overall OF defense gets you a better gauge of what's going on.