One More Punt???

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I know how unpopular it would make the brass to the less-informed fans, but several people (including myself) have mentioned that they'd potentially be on board if The Johns ultimately backtracked from their "commitment" to being more competitive this season for an even rosier and more sustainable future when SunTrust Park opens. I'd think that decision would eventually hinge on whether they felt they'd begin losing diehards who are younger than the 40+ crowd who grew up during the dark days.

Let's face it - you could make the argument that the pieces they have left to deal are even more valuable than the pieces traded away last year:

Miller and Teheran are legitimate #2/#3 starters for any contender or fringe contender, and under control for 3 and 5 years respectively.

Simmons is a franchise SS even if he never hits more than he has so far, and under control for 5 years.

Freeman is a franchise 1B for any team with at least one more power source, and under control for 6 years.

So my question is - as someone who considers yourself a diehard with a solid grasp of what the ultimate goal is (trying to build the system back into one that can help sustain success for another 10+ year run), would you be able to handle one more bad year if shipping those guys out brought us the top-shelf premium prospects to make the system the slam-dunk best in baseball??? The high picks in this year's draft, the international spending spree it appears they're going on, and additional high picks in the 2017 draft. Use the money to sign mid-level free-agents you KNOW you can move in 2016 (and maybe even splurge on a top-tier guy with every intention of moving him too) as long as they're healthy and aim for mediocrity even if you don't get there to stockpile even more picks and prospects (even if they're just additional depth in the system) and come out with guns blazing in 2017.

Lots of people bemoan the fact that you'll lose the fanbase if they're not more competitive in 2016, but we know that's not true - the fly-by-night fans will come out in 2017 because of the new park. We've seen it time and time again everywhere else. Yes, attendance will be bad again next season, but if you don't have any long-term commitments on the books, who really cares? The money will be there to add free-agents as soon as the gates open 16 months from now.
 
I think we're getting another bad year regardless, so I think trading Teheran (a point of strength) and Simmons (we need offense more than defense) might be a "good" idea. I would keep Miller and Freeman for at least one more year.
 
The issue isn't 2016. We're not going to be terribly good next year, even with Simmons, Teheran, Miller and Freeman. We'll be better than last year, and maybepossiblyconceivablyifeverythingbreaksright play around .500, but legit contention isn't a realistic possibility.

The issue is 2017. If you go through another tear down and deal the guys listed above, you're not punting next year- you're punting at least a couple Sun Trust years. The only way to avoid that is to completely and totally nail those trades- and I mean nail them, as in getting multiple near MLB-ready top prospects, all of whom perform up to expectations come 2017, for each of the players being discussed here. Those sorts of trades don't happen very much any more.
 
I don't see any way we can be successful in 2016... so a punt is probably happening whether we want it or not
 
I don't think trading one or two of those players are a death sentence for the team in 17 and 18. Simmons is on a friendly contract until 2021, and since we are building around pitching, his up the middle defense is vital. Miller might get the bigger haul but I like his control more than I like Julio contract, so I would keep Miller.
Julio and Freeman would fetch a nice return in almost ready bats, plus would free up tons of money for future FA markets. I still think we need to build the foundation before we can put the roof on. Punting next year would be a step in the right direction. As much as I like Freeman and Julio, I would be ok with moving them if the return is good in both quality and quantity. I would say we would have a top 2 system with the draft slots we have, the international signings, and a nice influx of good hitters.
 
I'm torn bc yeah the talent we could get back would be a huge help but then on the other hand the guys we are talking about trading are signed for a long time. Payroll will go up after next year and we have more money to spend next offseason with a few contracts coming off the books. Let's say Olivera is our 3rd baseman going into the season. Then 3/5 of the infield is cemented and 1/3 of the outfield. If they were to say trade for Lucroy and sign Zobrist then the whole infield would be locked down till help arrives from the minors. Who knows about Mallex in Cf but that and Lf would be our 2 biggest questions next offseason with some money to spend. If I had to say right now I'd stay the course we're on and build around Freeman, Simmons, and the pitching.
 
One has to look at the pitching first, do we have the guys to make us competitive in 2016? Not likely, Miller and Teheran are good, probably have some high trade value, but do they make us that much better in even 2017? I say no. So yes trade both IF you can get high end position players.

The rest of the pitching for the future, is there really any one that looks like a great pitcher based on what we have seen? Not at the ML level. I do not see greatness in the likes of Wisler, Banuelos, Folty, Weber or Perez. They are low to middle of the rotation guys. The pen, we have little there to see much future either. Now I would look to see if a trade could be worked out for someone like a Sonny Gray.

I love Freddie Freeman and Andrelton Simmons, Kansas City showed how important having a solid fielding team can be. I would have to get a pretty big haul to trade those 2. Plus I need to have a plan on how to replace that talent level. There is no one ready in our system to take either spot.

We basically need top of the rotation guys, a pen, an outfield and a catcher, and maybe a 2nd baseman, do we really want to add 2 more positions to have to fill?
 
If you look at expected wins at the start of the pre-season, there is more logic to punting in 2016 than there was to punting in 2015. But there are other considerations at work, including the nebolous but real damage to the brand.
 
bravesfanMatt said:
I don't think trading one or two of those players are a death sentence for the team in 17 and 18. Simmons is on a friendly contract until 2021, and since we are building around pitching, his up the middle defense is vital. Miller might get the bigger haul but I like his control more than I like Julio contract, so I would keep Miller.
Julio and Freeman would fetch a nice return in almost ready bats, plus would free up tons of money for future FA markets. I still think we need to build the foundation before we can put the roof on. Punting next year would be a step in the right direction. As much as I like Freeman and Julio, I would be ok with moving them if the return is good in both quality and quantity. I would say we would have a top 2 system with the draft slots we have, the international signings, and a nice influx of good hitters.
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I personally think this is a huge part of what "The Plan" should revolve around - getting all the way back to Square One.

Coppy has already been quoted using the "foundation" example. I don't think anyone in the front office WANTS to trade these pieces away, but they understand that doing so would certainly shorten the process. No one wants to have another year like last year, but if doing so shortens the timetable substantially, I understand you just have to swallow hard and do it. Kansas City fans were all for running DMGM out of town prior to last October, now they think he can walk on water. Same thing with Theo and Jed in Chicago.

It took 6+ really bad seasons for the Royals, Cubs, and Astros to completely rebuild their systems. I just feel like the scouts we have and the newer and louder voice that Coppy and several of the more analytical guys he has at his disposal are capable of finishing it after two IF they commit to it completely. All the long-term commitments will be erased, and the potentially available free-agents in 2017 and 2018 should easily be able to plug any holes as we begin to work more and more of the younger pieces in moving forward - they can then be "in" on anyone and everyone they're interested in like it was when Ted still held the checkbook.

I could handle that much easier than another rough season and then 2-3 more so-so ones while we wait on Albies and all the talent at the lower levels. As soon as they feel someone can mentally handle struggling at this level like Glavine and Smoltz did when they were young (and Shelby did last year), call them up and let them get their feet wet - show the kids in the lower levels that their chance will come as soon as they're "ready", don't just keep telling them that. Push them aggressively because there are finally reinforcements in the pipeline if they sink instead of swim.
 
We lack any top pitching help in the minors for 3 years, so why trade your 2 best pitchers for position help when we have no help coming? The free agent pitching the next few years suck after this year. If we were over loaded with young stud pitching coming up then ok but we aren't right now. Trading Freeman and Simmons would help that I know but you're robbing Peter to pay Paul.
 
The plan is to sign David Price.
Hudson2 said:
We lack any top pitching help in the minors for 3 years, so why trade your 2 best pitchers for position help when we have no help coming? The free agent pitching the next few years suck after this year. If we were over loaded with young stud pitching coming up then ok but we aren't right now. Trading Freeman and Simmons would help that I know but you're robbing Peter to pay Paul.
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My idea is splash and trade. Splash meaning we sign one of the 3 best FAs out there. WE'll have to pay, that's fine. Trade means sending Shelby for best possible return of major league or high minor league talent. Maybe Simmons as well if the right return is there.

2 hypothetical trades

Simmons and Garcia for Norris, Renfroe and Rondon. This trade only happens if San DIego tries to be competitive again, where this trade helps them is that they're getting a long term SS and backup IF they need, and current major leaguers they're only losing one. Would throw in a BP arm as well if need be.

Miller for Dalton Pompey, Devon Travis and Matt Smoral. Jays will likely be building for a final push, with lots of older guys, their window is closing. We get back a potential 2B, another OF bat adn an arm. 2 of them are truly major league ready right now.

Where we fall as a team is SS right now. Rondon just entered AA and his results from then we're super pretty so he's likely at least a year away.To address that issue, I vote for signing someone as a stop gap to hope to rebuild some value for a midseason trade. Jimmy Rollins comes to mind. Ian Desmond may do that if he's not signed long term.

OK back to the top 3 FA, to me the top 3 free agents are GReinke, Price, and Heyward. I'd take any of those 3, but Price would be my primary target. Assume we make that happen.

ALso I salary dump Maybin, I think someoen takes him for little return.

2016 braves

CF - Smith
SS - Rollins
C - Norris
1B - Freeman
RF - Markakis
3B - Oliveira
LF - Renfroe/Pompey
2B - Travis

I'd be looking to move Markakis ASAP to make room for the other of Pompey/Renfroe as well.

ROtation
Price
yada yada yada

WE have tons of arms.
 
I have been beating this drum for a while, so yeah, I'm in.

And, I don't think punting this year puts 2017, and especially 2018, in unavoidable peril. I agree that the pitching that was auditioned in 2015, Wisler, etc., all looks like #3 starters or worse. And the FA market this offseason is heavy on SP. SO, I trade Freeman, Maybin, Teheran, Miller and Markakis for the right return. I would consider moving Simmons but really want to hang on to him for his defense. I take the money saved by moving the above and re-invest in SP. I like Greinke or Price to be staff ACE and then another SP with high potential but lower cost such as Shark or Latos, then I fill in the back end of the rotation with internal guys.

I would want a catcher with an excellent defensive reputation, especially handling and developing pitching, and hopefully brings some offense. I prefer Ianetta.

I might pick up a reclamation like Morneau to play 1B but would also consider Olivera at first.

2016 would suck no doubt. But, its the difference between a repeat of 2015 vs being 75-87. Incremental improvement only works if it sets you up for big improvement in 2017 and beyond. But, unless they get some controllable bats, it will be incremental improvement (75-87), incremental improvement (81-81), (84-78) but lose Miller to FA or shell out big bucks, begin the after prime decline of Freeman and Simmons, incremental decline, incremental decline, rebuild. That's the path right now UNLESS the payroll goes up dramatically and while I think it goes up $20-$30M per year in the new park, I don't ever see it going back to being competitive with the NY, Boston's and LA's who spend their way out of mistakes.
 
MadduxFanII said:
The issue isn't 2016. We're not going to be terribly good next year, even with Simmons, Teheran, Miller and Freeman. We'll be better than last year, and maybepossiblyconceivablyifeverythingbreaksright play around .500, but legit contention isn't a realistic possibility.

The issue is 2017. If you go through another tear down and deal the guys listed above, you're not punting next year- you're punting at least a couple Sun Trust years. The only way to avoid that is to completely and totally nail those trades- and I mean nail them, as in getting multiple near MLB-ready top prospects, all of whom perform up to expectations come 2017, for each of the players being discussed here. Those sorts of trades don't happen very much any more.
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If a 2016 punt would actually accomplish something, I'd tend to sign up for one, but if it's simply a Square One reset, they should have just done that last year, lowered ticket prices, and challenged the 1962 Mets for the all-time loss record.

It depends on what one thinks of our core and how to build around that. Unlike many here, I'd entertain a deal for Andrelton Simmons. I just don't think he's ever going to hit and he is pretty much a luxury (albeit a really nice luxury) on a team with offensive issues. I wouldn't be surprised to see Teheran shopped, although I think inquiries on Miller will likely be higher. Freeman is the face of the franchise now and every franchise needs a face, so I don't see him going anywhere.

I thought the front office's behavior was going about as I expected until the deadline deals, some of which didn't make a lot of sense to me. I think Olivera will be fine and I'm less flummoxed by that deal than I am about the Johnson for Swisher/Bourn deal. The latter deal really created a logjam and while we are out from under those contracts after 2016, I think the pay-for-production ratio on those two is going to border on miserable.

I'm in for the long haul. I remember the late-1970s and late-1980s, so I've experienced some really horrid Braves' baseball. But I don't have to pay the bills and fannies in the seats need to be there for the bills to get paid. That is going to require putting a team on the field that either is at least a borderline contender or be comprised of some young players with high ceilings that fans can enjoy watching grow into a contending team. I'm curious to see how the off-season unfolds.
 
Those who want to punt will have no choice because Fredi is going to lead us back to the playoffs.

Fredi is going to show Donny Baseball, Dusty, Terry and whoever the Phils have who really is the beast of the East. This will be Fredi's finest managerial season yet in a "contract" year. He's going to over perform for that new contract.
 
nsacpi said:
If you look at expected wins at the start of the pre-season, there is more logic to punting in 2016 than there was to punting in 2015. But there are other considerations at work, including the nebolous but real damage to the brand.
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I think you could mitigate that with the right moves and message. Trade Freeman? You have to counter that by signing Price? Trade Teheran? You have to counter that. And you have to message that to your sponsors like Sun Trust and to the casual fan. Casual fans are fickle. They will come if you win and stay away if you lose. Losing in Atlanta with "name" players is no better than losing with a squad made up of 4A fodder.
 
Price at 30m per year for 7 years ok with you?
Horsehide Harry said:
I think you could mitigate that with the right moves and message. Trade Freeman? You have to counter that by signing Price? Trade Teheran? You have to counter that. And you have to message that to your sponsors like Sun Trust and to the casual fan. Casual fans are fickle. They will come if you win and stay away if you lose. Losing in Atlanta with "name" players is no better than losing with a squad made up of 4A fodder.
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Hudson2 said:
We lack any top pitching help in the minors for 3 years, so why trade your 2 best pitchers for position help when we have no help coming? The free agent pitching the next few years suck after this year. If we were over loaded with young stud pitching coming up then ok but we aren't right now. Trading Freeman and Simmons would help that I know but you're robbing Peter to pay Paul.
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That's why you trade them all if you're going to trade any.

For example...

Simmons to the Yankees for Judge, Gary Sanchez, and Jacob Lindgren. There's your Opening Day 2017 Catcher (or LF), RF, and potential Closer.

Freeman to Boston for Margot, Espinoza, and Sam Travis. There's your Opening Day 2017 1B and CF, and potential Opening Day 2018 SP.

Teheran to Colorado for Ryan McMahon and Forest Wall. There's your potential Opening Day 2017 3B and 2B.

Miller to Chicago for Duane Underwood, Willson Contreras, and Dylan Cease. There's your potential Opening Day 2017 Catcher (or LF), and potential Opening Day 2018 rotation member and Closer.

This is where I agree with 50 so much - if you're blowing it up for the future, then do it - don't stop halfway.
 
50PoundHead said:
If a 2016 punt would actually accomplish something, I'd tend to sign up for one, but if it's simply a Square One reset, they should have just done that last year, lowered ticket prices, and challenged the 1962 Mets for the all-time loss record.

It depends on what one thinks of our core and how to build around that. Unlike many here, I'd entertain a deal for Andrelton Simmons. I just don't think he's ever going to hit and he is pretty much a luxury (albeit a really nice luxury) on a team with offensive issues. I wouldn't be surprised to see Teheran shopped, although I think inquiries on Miller will likely be higher. Freeman is the face of the franchise now and every franchise needs a face, so I don't see him going anywhere.

I thought the front office's behavior was going about as I expected until the deadline deals, some of which didn't make a lot of sense to me. I think Olivera will be fine and I'm less flummoxed by that deal than I am about the Johnson for Swisher/Bourn deal. The latter deal really created a logjam and while we are out from under those contracts after 2016, I think the pay-for-production ratio on those two is going to border on miserable.

I'm in for the long haul. I remember the late-1970s and late-1980s, so I've experienced some really horrid Braves' baseball. But I don't have to pay the bills and fannies in the seats need to be there for the bills to get paid. That is going to require putting a team on the field that either is at least a borderline contender or be comprised of some young players with high ceilings that fans can enjoy watching grow into a contending team. I'm curious to see how the off-season unfolds.
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That's one of the things the current brass has going for them that many front offices didn't have in the past. With the monstrous TV and multimedia deals currently in place, the money for "fannies in the seats" is much more like blow money than it ever was before. The franchise's bottom-line revenues are going nowhere, so you can deal with a couple of bad seasons at the gates if it actually gets the franchise somewhere in the long run IMO.
 
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