Peraza debuts for Dodgers

sturg33 said:
Basically - give Wood 2.5 WAR for the next 4 years.

Give Perazza 2 WAR for the next 6 years.

Olivera - 3 WAR for the next 4 years.

Equals = Dodgers getting 22 WAR = $154M in value (@ $7M/WAR)

Braves get 12 WAR = $84M in value

That's a $70M difference in value. Even if you give a good amount to the pick and the reliever, it's not getting us there
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That's pretty hard to argue against. Essentially the only reasonable response is you factor in some sort of premium for for WAR earned above 3 (ie... the cost per WAR increases exponentially), and you hope that your analysis on the player shows that he's worth more than 3 WAR.

I don't think I would be one to stomach that risk, but mid market teams have to take these types of risks (notice I didn't say this particular move).
 
Peraza could easily be an Eric Young Jr. type of player and that's actually probably a more fair projection. At absolute best he's Jose Altuve, but he's very unlikely to reach Altuve's standard. Darwin Barney is another fair comparison, but Peraza of course has more speed although Barney is a better defender.
 
To get the best judge on WAR value between these players you also have to look at what the player is actually making as theri salary.

For example would you rather have a player who makes 6 million per year for 4 years who is a 3 WAR player for 2 players who combine for 5 WAR who's total salary is 25 million for the next 4 years?

At an estimated 7 million per WAR (which I think is on the low side right now) the first player would have a surplus value of 60 million (12 WAR over the contract would be worth 84 million on the market minus his actual 24 million price tag) over those 4 years while the 2 players would combine for a surplus value of 40 million over those 4 years.

So while those 2 players would actually produce more WAR the 1st player would have more surplus value. Which gives that team hopefully a better chance to sign someone else or promote someone from within who would provide an even bigger surplus value.

So there are a lot of factors that go into this. Olivera having an anual salary of 5 or 6 million is extremely good value. He would have to be a 1 WAR player to just 'earn' his salary and by all accounts he should be much better than that.

I think Olivera and Wood are equal talents. Both are signed to below market rates. Olivera with his 5-6 million price tag and Wood still in his pre-FA years. So that's why I think the addition of Peraza is confusing. He has so much surplus value potential with 6 years before hitting FA. If he averages 2 WAR a year for his 6 years before free agency then that's a surplus value of 60 million which is a lot.
 
chop2chip said:
That's pretty hard to argue against. Essentially the only reasonable response is you factor in some sort of premium for for WAR earned above 3 (ie... the cost per WAR increases exponentially), and you hope that your analysis on the player shows that he's worth more than 3 WAR.

I don't think I would be one to stomach that risk, but mid market teams have to take these types of risks (notice I didn't say this particular move).
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I dislike the trade a lot. But I think the money as outlined by Strugg33 is missing the replacement.

From a Braves perspective it's really more:
Wood is 2.5 over the next 4 years - X WAR over the next 4 years for his replacement (Wisler? ManBan? Jenkins?)
Perazza is 2 war of the next 6. Well what will be the WAR of Jace over that time? Or Maybin/Mallex if you think CF
Olivera WAR compared to what you think we could fill over the next X years.
RP.....etc
Bird.......etc
Pick will be whatever the pick is
$-if we actually do use the money we "save" on olivera to buy another hitter then factor that in.
 
thewupk said:
To get the best judge on WAR value between these players you also have to look at what the player is actually making as theri salary.

For example would you rather have a player who makes 6 million per year for 4 years who is a 3 WAR player for 2 players who combine for 5 WAR who's total salary is 25 million for the next 4 years?

At an estimated 7 million per WAR (which I think is on the low side right now) the first player would have a surplus value of 60 million (12 WAR over the contract would be worth 84 million on the market minus his actual 24 million price tag) over those 4 years while the 2 players would combine for a surplus value of 40 million over those 4 years.

So while those 2 players would actually produce more WAR the 1st player would have more surplus value. Which gives that team hopefully a better chance to sign someone else or promote someone from within who would provide an even bigger surplus value.

So there are a lot of factors that go into this. Olivera having an anual salary of 5 or 6 million is extremely good value. He would have to be a 1 WAR player to just 'earn' his salary and by all accounts he should be much better than that.

I think Olivera and Wood are equal talents. Both are signed to below market rates. Olivera with his 5-6 million price tag and Wood still in his pre-FA years. So that's why I think the addition of Peraza is confusing. He has so much surplus value potential with 6 years before hitting FA. If he averages 2 WAR a year for his 6 years before free agency then that's a surplus value of 60 million which is a lot.
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This is actually a legit argument. So the question would be why did we trade Peraza for Paco, Bird, and the 1st round pick. One answer is his value would go down for us as a CF if we kept him. Also it's not inconceivable for those 3 to match peraza's value. As I've stated we cannot realistically judge this trade right now. But that's a good way to look at it.
 
Chico said:
This is actually a legit argument. So the question would be why did we trade Peraza for Paco, Bird, and the 1st round pick. One answer is his value would go down for us as a CF if we kept him. Also it's not inconceivable for those 3 to match peraza's value. As I've stated we cannot realistically judge this trade right now. But that's a good way to look at it.
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I think it's 2 fold. One I think even though Olivera and Wood are comparable talents I think Olivera is valued higher because hitting is more valuable than pitching right now imo. Pitching is so abundant that it's devalued overall. Secondly I think the Braves valued Olivera higher than most. It's clear the team has a hardon for him so that's likely why you saw the inclusion of Peraza. Getting that pick back does help though.
 
thewupk said:
To get the best judge on WAR value between these players you also have to look at what the player is actually making as theri salary.

For example would you rather have a player who makes 6 million per year for 4 years who is a 3 WAR player for 2 players who combine for 5 WAR who's total salary is 25 million for the next 4 years?

At an estimated 7 million per WAR (which I think is on the low side right now) the first player would have a surplus value of 60 million (12 WAR over the contract would be worth 84 million on the market minus his actual 24 million price tag) over those 4 years while the 2 players would combine for a surplus value of 40 million over those 4 years.

So while those 2 players would actually produce more WAR the 1st player would have more surplus value. Which gives that team hopefully a better chance to sign someone else or promote someone from within who would provide an even bigger surplus value.

So there are a lot of factors that go into this. Olivera having an anual salary of 5 or 6 million is extremely good value. He would have to be a 1 WAR player to just 'earn' his salary and by all accounts he should be much better than that.

I think Olivera and Wood are equal talents. Both are signed to below market rates. Olivera with his 5-6 million price tag and Wood still in his pre-FA years. So that's why I think the addition of Peraza is confusing. He has so much surplus value potential with 6 years before hitting FA. If he averages 2 WAR a year for his 6 years before free agency then that's a surplus value of 60 million which is a lot.
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This.

The value of Olivera is having a 3 WAR player (assuming he's as good as everyone hopes he is) for $6M per year. Let's assume everyone, including Wood, stays healthy and produces as expected/hoped. Wood will be making more than Minor did through arbitration, so his last 3 years of control will cost in the neighborhood of $18M-$20M.

Would you rather have Wood or Olivera over 3 years for $18M-$20M? For this organization, IF Olivera truly is a .270/.350/.450 bat with 20 HRs and average defense at 3B, I think the answer is pretty obvious which one is better. The risk on both sides is pretty large...Olivera could certainly bust, and Wood could certainly be the ticking timebomb some are predicting.

If either worst case scenario happens, however, that doesn't make the trade any better/worse. The Braves definitely overpaid by adding Peraza...period. No late draft pick or fringe pitching prospects (which the Braves already have a million of) is worth a top 50 position prospect...not even close.

As far as adding Peraza into the deal goes, who knows. His most likely outcome is a replacement level utility guy, so I'm not going to sweat losing him too much, even if his inclusion made it a clear overpay for Olivera.
 
Enscheff said:
This.

The value of Olivera is having a 3 WAR player (assuming he's as good as everyone hopes he is) for $6M per year. Let's assume everyone, including Wood, stays healthy and produces as expected/hoped. Wood will be making more than Minor did through arbitration, so his last 3 years of control will cost in the neighborhood of $18M-$20M.

Would you rather have Wood or Olivera over 3 years for $18M-$20M? For this organization, IF Olivera truly is a .270/.350/.450 bat with 20 HRs and average defense at 3B, I think the answer is pretty obvious which one is better. The risk on both sides is pretty large...Olivera could certainly bust, and Wood could certainly be the ticking timebomb some are predicting.

If either worst case scenario happens, however, that doesn't make the trade any better/worse. The Braves definitely overpaid by adding Peraza...period. No late draft pick or fringe pitching prospects (which the Braves already have a million of) is worth a top 50 position prospect...not even close.

As far as adding Peraza into the deal goes, who knows. His most likely outcome is a replacement level utility guy, so I'm not going to sweat losing him too much, even if his inclusion made it a clear overpay for Olivera.
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Very fair assessment. I do think the pick is going to be valuable though. We jumped in hard after the pick being available from the Marlins was made public. Hopefully the scouts are reporting back on the depth of the draft getting us a little giddy.
 
zbhargrove said:
Well they certainly have the track record to back it up... but I'm sure you're more qualified
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I'm not sure we want JS running our team the way he did before the Wren era.

hart's made some really good and smart moves. I'm just baffled that it is so hard for you guys to admit he really overpaid for this one
 
sturg33 said:
I'm not sure we want JS running our team the way he did before the Wren era.

hart's made some really good and smart moves. I'm just baffled that it is so hard for you guys to admit he really overpaid for this one
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I have always admitted it... I never liked the trade and I have said that numerous times. But you're a bit over the top on your criticism which is okay I guess because its your style. You chastise people assuming health and success for Olivera but you assume quite a bit of things about future success of Wood and Peraza yourself. While I don't like the trade, its nowhere near the lopsided deal you've made it out to be. Its another case of a player(s) you were personally attached to. Wood has been overrated by some posters on this board and Olivera has been set up to fail. While I don't love the trade, I'm really excited to see Olivera play. And I'm not just going to assume he's going to be some huge injury issue going forward considering he's passed all of his physicals. The UCL is not thought to be a problem and there was some speculation he doesn't even have the partial tear... the blood clot issue was taken care of 2+ years ago and there has been nothing to suggest its something that will continue to plague him.
 
sturg33 said:
I'm not sure we want JS running our team the way he did before the Wren era.

hart's made some really good and smart moves. I'm just baffled that it is so hard for you guys to admit he really overpaid for this one
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I'd like to see Olivera play a game before saying this, and how the other parts fit but ya know.
 
zbhargrove said:
I have always admitted it... I never liked the trade and I have said that numerous times. But you're a bit over the top on your criticism which is okay I guess because its your style. You chastise people assuming health and success for Olivera but you assume quite a bit of things about future success of Wood and Peraza yourself. While I don't like the trade, its nowhere near the lopsided deal you've made it out to be. Its another case of a player(s) you were personally attached to. Wood has been overrated by some posters on this board and Olivera has been set up to fail. While I don't love the trade, I'm really excited to see Olivera play. And I'm not just going to assume he's going to be some huge injury issue going forward considering he's passed all of his physicals. The UCL is not thought to be a problem and there was some speculation he doesn't even have the partial tear... the blood clot issue was taken care of 2+ years ago and there has been nothing to suggest its something that will continue to plague him.
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I hated the trade, but this post has great points. Nice zb.
 
zbhargrove said:
I have always admitted it... I never liked the trade and I have said that numerous times. But you're a bit over the top on your criticism which is okay I guess because its your style. You chastise people assuming health and success for Olivera but you assume quite a bit of things about future success of Wood and Peraza yourself. While I don't like the trade, its nowhere near the lopsided deal you've made it out to be. Its another case of a player(s) you were personally attached to. Wood has been overrated by some posters on this board and Olivera has been set up to fail. While I don't love the trade, I'm really excited to see Olivera play. And I'm not just going to assume he's going to be some huge injury issue going forward considering he's passed all of his physicals. The UCL is not thought to be a problem and there was some speculation he doesn't even have the partial tear... the blood clot issue was taken care of 2+ years ago and there has been nothing to suggest its something that will continue to plague him.
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I don't think I'm being too harsh on Olivera or too optimistic on Wood. I'm basically assuming both will be healthy. But others are syaing you can't count on Wood to be healthy... If that's the case, you can't count on Olivera to be healthy.

I agree - I'm pumped to see Olivera play (maybe Tuesday)... I liked him in the offseason and I still like him (but he's of course been injured this year). I just hated the cost.

I love Mercedes' vehicles. I think they're great! But I wouldn't spend $120K for one, you know?
 
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