Plan for Starting Pitching

nsacpi

nsacpi

Expects Yuge Games
At mid-season teams pay a premium when trading minor league talent for major league talent. On top of that it appears that starting pitching is a seller's market this trading deadline.

Given the above I think the best plan for the Braves is to not trade for a starting pitcher right now. I would promote Lucas Sims and give him an audition the rest of the year. If there is an injury or something else that requires an additional starting pitcher I would bring up one of Medlen/Wisler/Blair.

Looking a bit further down the line, I think the odds are against both Sims and Newcomb passing their audition. This means there will be a need for an established pitcher for the 2018 rotation. And we have money coming off the books (mostly from the Colon and Garcia contracts). I would try to acquire a starting pitcher this off-season (either via trade or free agency) using this financial cushion rather than paying for one with prospects. I would control risk by avoiding any commitment that went beyond three years. We want to keep financial flexibility over the next 3-5 years to be able to extent the core of this team and to make the occasional judicious acquisition to fill areas of need. And we want a natural path for our top pitching prospects (Soroka, Wright, Gohara, Allard) to move into the rotation as they show they are ready.
 
The Braves could legitimately look at themselves as wild card contenders with a starting pitching upgrade. I'm fine with singing someone or trading for someone. Maybe one of each.

Sitting back and waiting for their starters to develop as a solution to contending doesn't seem like a great plan. That's going to take awhile.

I'd try and find deals that minimize the prospect cost, but the Braves are running out of space for their prospects at this point. Some of them have to be moved.

I don't see any reason not to begin trying to make the playoffs even if the championship window is probably 2019 and beyond.
 
I 100% agree. The only thing I'd like to see is if Julio can be moved for an area of need and we replace him with another pitcher like him without the fly ball out of Suntrust tendency.

Also- our minor leaguers have done nothing to hurt their stock for the most part so let them establish a bit more value with more proven performance.
 
Southcack77 said:
The Braves could legitimately look at themselves as wild card contenders with a starting pitching upgrade. I'm fine with singing someone or trading for someone. Maybe one of each.

Sitting back and waiting for their starters to develop as a solution to contending doesn't seem like a great plan. That's going to take awhile.

I'd try and find deals that minimize the prospect cost, but the Braves are running out of space for their prospects at this point. Some of them have to be moved.

I don't see any reason not to begin trying to make the playoffs even if the championship window is probably 2019 and beyond.
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The biggest mistake we could make at the deadline would be overpaying for Gray. There is a reasonable overpay and there is a crazy overpay. It will be one or the other. I can live with a reasonable overpay. I fear it will be a crazy overpay.
 
nsacpi said:
The biggest mistake we could make at the deadline would be overpaying for Gray. There is a reasonable overpay and there is a crazy overpay. It will be one or the other. I can live with a reasonable overpay. I fear it will be a crazy overpay.
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Whatever happens will happen, but my feeling is that if the Braves were willing to do a crazy overpay, Gray would already be in Atlanta.

I'm not huge on Gray, but I'm also not huge on pitching prospects. So we might have different views on what is a crazy overpay.
 
What about chatwood or pelfrey on short term deals to bolster the back end of the rotation?
 
Southcack77 said:
Whatever happens will happen, but my feeling is that if the Braves were willing to do a crazy overpay, Gray would already be in Atlanta.

I'm not huge on Gray, but I'm also not huge on pitching prospects. So we might have different views on what is a crazy overpay.
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I think we should hoard our prospects. It is true that a lot of them bust. But on average (and this is where the phrase expected future production comes in) they are worth more than what we will be acquiring at the deadline.

Acquiring someone like Verlander would be less of a mistake on our part than getting Gray, because the acquisition cost would be skewed more toward $$ than prospects.
 
Southcack77 said:
All the stockpiled pitching prospects are likely years away from being as good as an established top half of the rotation starter. Now you understand.
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Not really. Soroka, Allard, Gohara, in AA. Sims in AAA, and Nuke in MLB. Theres 4 more within spitting distance.

We are likely 1-2 years from playoff contention. So no, I don't understand it. At all.
 
Southcack77 said:
All the stockpiled pitching prospects are likely years away from being as good as an established top half of the rotation starter. Now you understand.
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Years away? Have you been paying attention to what is happening on the farm? Newcomb and Sims have had strong seasons in AAA. Ditto for Soroka, Allard and Gohara in AA. Those 3 will be knocking on the door in 2018. One or two is likely to be promoted at some point in 2018.

The biggest mistake we could make is to try to accelerate the rebuild by paying a big premium (in the form of minor league talent) for major league talent.
 
Kemp and Sims for Verlander, would the Tigers say no? They still save almost 30 million in the deal.
 
Rather than start a new thread, I'll pose the question here.

Do you include Albies in a deal for Sonny Gray?
 
nsacpi said:
Years away? Have you been paying attention to what is happening on the farm? Newcomb and Sims have had strong seasons in AAA. Ditto for Soroka, Allard and Gohara in AA. Those 3 will be knocking on the door in 2018. One or two is likely to be promoted at some point in 2018.

The biggest mistake we could make is to try to accelerate the rebuild by paying a big premium (in the form of minor league talent) for major league talent.
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Haven't really seen this addressed much, but I think I would look into moving both Gohara and Toussaint into a closer's role and may the best man get to Atlanta ASAP.
 
These beat writers keep saying that we are in the mix for starting pitchers, and we keep not trading for them. Yet every time, we all run around as though it might actually happen.

I think there is about a 5% chance we actually make a move for somebody. Verlander I could see. Gray? Seriously doubt it.
 
nsacpi said:
I think we should hoard our prospects. It is true that a lot of them bust. But on average (and this is where the phrase expected future production comes in) they are worth more than what we will be acquiring at the deadline.

Acquiring someone like Verlander would be less of a mistake on our part than getting Gray, because the acquisition cost would be skewed more toward $$ than prospects.
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I actually really like the Verlander idea though it will be tight on the money.
 
rico43 said:
Haven't really seen this addressed much, but I think I would look into moving both Gohara and Toussaint into a closer's role and may the best man get to Atlanta ASAP.
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Why on earth would you move Gohara to the pen? For that matter, why Touki? I can understand Touki more, since Gohara is now one of the better SP prospects in baseball. But even then, he has shown progress this year and is still 21. Certainly not time to do that yet.
 
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