Plan for Starting Pitching

Hudson2 said:
Then I'd have to pass. If the option vests then they'd still save 30 million. No team is gonna take on that whole contract
Click to expand...

If the option vests, Verlander would have been one of the five best pitchers in the league in 2019 and would have a single season at 22 million remaining. There are scenarios where that could be a bad thing, but it seems reasonable.
 
Russ2dollas said:
who?

I think that is fair. And Coppy should know better than us. Will Fulmer be around? Will Cole be available?

Again....if you can get a deal on Gray, I'm in. If you can't I'm out. Some of Beane's recent trades suggest we could win that trade.
Click to expand...

Archer. I would think.

Maybe some other club like the White Sox thinks the stress of trying to win is too much.

I'm curious if there are any identifiable guys like Quintana, Sale, Archer, Gray that figure to be available next season in the same way.
 
If we can get him for Charles Thomas and Dan Meyer..... I'm in!

Mostly agree with nsacip though; I'd really rather let guys like Sims/Newk/Wisler get an audition the rest of the year. Now isn't the time to buy.
 
Southcack77 said:
If the option vests, Verlander would have been one of the five best pitchers in the league in 2019 and would have a single season at 22 million remaining. There are scenarios where that could be a bad thing, but it seems reasonable.
Click to expand...

One piece of information I haven't been able to find. If the 2020 salary doesn't vest, what is the payout if the team does not exercise the option. Might be a big number.
 
nsacpi said:
One piece of information I haven't been able to find. If the 2020 salary doesn't vest, what is the payout if the team does not exercise the option. Might be a big number.
Click to expand...

I don't know, but I would not guess it would be a big number if they have to buy it out.
 
nsacpi said:
One piece of information I haven't been able to find. If the 2020 salary doesn't vest, what is the payout if the team does not exercise the option. Might be a big number.
Click to expand...

His contract was for 7/180 and he would of been paid 180 by the end of 2019. Generally any kind of buyout is included in the guaranteed number. I think it either vests or it doesn't. No team or player option. Just based solely on his cy voting that year.
 
Southcack77 said:
What I'm saying is that it is unlikely that the young pitchers will come in and pitch anywhere near as well as established major league front half rotation pieces. In fact, for most of them, it is unlikely they will ever be front half rotation pieces. If they are, it is likely it will be three years or so into their major league career.

Personally, for the right player and at the right price, I don't mind cashing in some maybe in four years for established pieces.

The front office has thus far not made these deals, which suggests that they are only looking to do it on their own terms. They've been mentioned on a ton of guys and have the resources to have brought back any of them and here we stand.

Are they going to get desperate at this deadline? I certainly don't see why they would and certainly hope not.
Click to expand...

They claimed that the rebuild was focused on young pitching because it is too expensive to buy or trade for stud pitchers. So far, counting Newk, we have graduated exactly ONE of those young pitchers. We should see anywhere from 1-4 more of the young guys ready to graduate next year, so I'm really not sure why we would be acquiring ANY pitchers now or this offseason.

If the Braves aren't willing to let the young pitchers have some growing pains, then they really shouldn't have focused the rebuild on young pitchers. Trading them now for the most expensive kind of pitching (young and controlled) would be fence straddling nonsense.
 
thewupk said:
His contract was for 7/180 and he would of been paid 180 by the end of 2019. Generally any kind of buyout is included in the guaranteed number. I think it either vests or it doesn't. No team or player option. Just based solely on his cy voting that year.
Click to expand...

Thanks. I thought that might be how it worked. Which means we are really not risking anything with respect to 2020. Either he is well worth keeping based on salary and 2019 performance or he goes off the books.
 
nsacpi said:
The biggest mistake we could make at the deadline would be overpaying for Gray. There is a reasonable overpay and there is a crazy overpay. It will be one or the other. I can live with a reasonable overpay. I fear it will be a crazy overpay.
Click to expand...

This is the constant theme around these parts, but I'm not sure I understand why. The brass played as hard as anyone on Archer and Quintana - despite their better contract situations - and they exercised restraint when the asking price got too high. Both of those guys also have better medical histories than Gray as well.

I think we're as "in" on Gray as anyone out there - if he can be had for what we consider a reasonable overpay, we'll pull the trigger - however, that reasonable overpay isn't likely to include any of the Albies, Acuna, Wright, Maitan, Allard, or Soroka group. If Coppy and Company can find a reasonable mix from the other guys that they're willing to live with, I can probably live with it too. They're probably intent on extending or re-signing Gray if they go offer up several prospects for him at this point, so if we could add him to the mix for as long as we have control of Folty I'd be willing to take the gamble that Julio gets it together enough to be at least a solid #3 with the kids fighting it out for the last two spots in the rotation for the next 5 years or so.
 
Why don't we just wait to the offseason and make a smaller trade for a good pitcher like Garcia? By the trade deadline next year, you would have Wright and Soroka (at least ) knocking on the door.
 
I want to outline all of our pitching prospects and the approximate time they will be big league ready.
 
Why would we overpay by any amount for anyone that doesn't have 5+ years of control at this point?

It is dumb for us to be buying at the deadline, so I certainly hope we don't do it. But I have no reason to believe we will.
 
To me , you trade the rule 5 guys you can't protect in the offseason. That's the about the only ones you move at this point.
 
smootness said:
Why would we overpay by any amount for anyone that doesn't have 5+ years of control at this point?

It is dumb for us to be buying at the deadline, so I certainly hope we don't do it. But I have no reason to believe we will.
Click to expand...

Rumor is the As want a CF.

What if the price for Sonny Gray is Pache + Mueller. You don't think that is worth looking at? Yes Pache could be a big time player.

I'm not saying I do it, I'm saying you should be in the conversation and see if you can get a deal.

Honestly I'd rather do a 3 way trade and send Sonny to the Astros and get into the Astros OF and 3B cache.
 
Russ2dollas said:
Rumor is the As want a CF.

What if the price for Sonny Gray is Pache + Mueller. You don't think that is worth looking at? Yes Pache could be a big time player.

I'm not saying I do it, I'm saying you should be in the conversation and see if you can get a deal.

Honestly I'd rather do a 3 way trade and send Sonny to the Astros and get into the Astros OF and 3B cache.
Click to expand...

Sure, but that's not an overpay. I was responding to the posters saying they're ok with a reasonable overpay for Gray. My point is, why? We're not going for anything right now, so what are you overpaying for?

If you get a steal on value, you take it, which your outlined deal would absolutely be. If it's even value, I would lean toward sticking with the future. If it's an overpay, you pass.
 
smootness said:
Sure, but that's not an overpay. I was responding to the posters saying they're ok with a reasonable overpay for Gray. My point is, why? We're not going for anything right now, so what are you overpaying for?

If you get a steal on value, you take it, which your outlined deal would absolutely be. If it's even value, I would lean toward sticking with the future. If it's an overpay, you pass.
Click to expand...

Then we agree 100%.

Gray could be gone and I get that. But he's still got the injury history and the two years at Arb prices. He's not Q or Archer.

If Gray can land some mega haul then put Folty on the block.
 
smootness said:
Sure, but that's not an overpay. I was responding to the posters saying they're ok with a reasonable overpay for Gray. My point is, why? We're not going for anything right now, so what are you overpaying for?

If you get a steal on value, you take it, which your outlined deal would absolutely be. If it's even value, I would lean toward sticking with the future. If it's an overpay, you pass.
Click to expand...

Since that's me - here's why I called it that. Tons of people around here put a huge amount of weight on these ranking lists - so much so that they somehow believe that being on them is an absolute promise of future success at the MLB level. Yet we have guys like Folty and Swanson who've had long stretches where they've struggled after being promoted. Newcomb's facing that as well at this point. In no way do I think that means that at least one or even all three of them will ultimately reach their ceiling. What it does mean (to me) is that lots of people are weighting that minor league success too heavily (much like defensive metrics seem to be weighted too heavily). People that are too high on prospects (IMO) take that "Ace" or All-Star potential ceiling and factor it in for six years when they value them and completely discount that they're more than likely going to struggle for at least a year or two as they adjust to the highest level of competition. If you discount the value you're placing on those prospects 25 to 30-ish% because the vast majority are going to have those struggles then we'll be closer to agreeing on their true value. Most of these guys simply don't hit the ground running as stars at the highest level even though they may eventually turn into one.

If an "overpay" to land Gray - who has already established himself as a star - for us involves Anderson or Gohara, Pache, and Wentz, we traded our #7 or #8, #9, and #13 prospects to land a proven front of the rotation SP - and STILL HAVE Folty, Julio, Newcomb, and three SP prospects that everyone's higher on than the ones we traded, Ender and a CF prospect that everyone's higher on than the CF we traded. So you're willing to send me 2+ years of a cheap PROVEN front-end SP (that we'd have as much chance of extending as anyone would given where he's from) for my 4th and 5th best SP prospects and my 2nd best CF prospect?

Yeah, I'll do that.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top